WilkesboroDude Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 UPDATED for colder and frost potential... Main aspect will be the arrival of a strong fallish type cold front over the weekend including the passage of a deep 500 mb trough from the Great Lakes across the eastern Seaboard into early next week. This system will bring the coolest air of the season with at least some patchy frost potential in the deeper valleys by Tuesday morning as high pressure settles overhead. Ahead of the front/trof...appears enough moisture should get injected under the SW flow aloft to promote a band of pre-frontal rain showers that may affect the mountains Sat night...and out east on Sunday when the true 850 mb front/colder air aloft will arrive. Latest guidance shows a little instability ahead of the boundary in the Piedmont so including an isolated -tsra mention there Sunday. Otherwise models rather close except for timing issues with the front so opting to go closer to the slower European model (ecmwf) for now. Post frontal temperatures the main issue with MOS showing some 30s in the valleys for both Monday/Tuesday mornings and highs staying in the 60s mountains into early next week. Temperatures should moderate some by midweek as the air remains dry and the surface high starts sliding off to the south by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 North Carolina Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Rutherford, Polk, McDowell, Burke, Yadkin, Wilkes, Surry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 081620Z - 081815Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for much of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Warning up now for Forsyth County...this is not good as Wake Forest is at home against Carolina with a 3:00 kickoff. Would it have been better if there were no game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Looks like I got a nice little cell heading my way (beaufort county) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 09/08/2012 0250 PM 1 miles ESE of Pfafftown, Forsyth County. Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by law enforcement. Light pole blown down. Trees and power lines blown down. Time estimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Forsyth and Guilford counties are the places to live this year if you like severe weather and flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Big wind coming through...>30mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 09/08/2012 0130 PM 6 miles se of north wilkesb, Wilkes County. Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center. One tree down on Highway 115 near Spring drive and Fishing Creek Road 09/08/2012 0345 PM 2 miles WNW of lake townsen, Guilford County. Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center. Tree blown down along Plainfield Road. 09/08/2012 0347 PM Browns Summit, Guilford County. Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center. Tree blown down near intersection of doggett Road and Highway 150. 09/08/2012 0350 PM 1 miles NNW of Monticello, Guilford County. Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center. Tree blown down near U.S. 29 and Highway 150. 09/08/2012 0345 PM 2 miles W of Lake Townsend, Guilford County. Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center. Tree blown down along air Harbor Road. 09/08/2012 0322 PM Piedmont triad apt, Guilford County. Thunderstorm wind gust m40 mph, reported by ASOS. 09/08/2012 0330 PM 2 miles SSE of Summerfield, Guilford County. Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center. Trees blown down along battleground Avenue. 09/08/2012 0345 PM 2 miles WNW of lake townsen, Guilford County. Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center. Tree blown down along Plainfield Road. 09/08/2012 0347 PM Browns Summit, Guilford County. Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center. Tree blown down near intersection of doggett Road and Highway 150. 09/08/2012 0350 PM 1 miles NNW of Monticello, Guilford County. Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center. Tree blown down near U.S. 29 and Highway 150. 09/08/2012 0345 PM 2 miles W of Lake Townsend, Guilford County. Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center. Tree blown down along air Harbor Road. 09/08/2012 0322 PM Piedmont triad apt, Guilford County. Thunderstorm wind gust m40 mph, reported by ASOS. 09/08/2012 0330 PM 2 miles SSE of Summerfield, Guilford County. Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center. Trees blown down along battleground Avenue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 09/08/2012 0545 PM 1 miles NNE of Durham, Durham County. Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue. Power lines down along Duke street. 09/08/2012 0545 PM 3 miles NNE of Durham, Durham County. Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by Fire Dept/Rescue. Tree blown down near Avondale and Interstate 85. Highway at a standstill in both directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Nothing more than a light shower here. It feels delightful outside right now and we have the windows open. I think I'll light up my pipe on the back deck tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 0.77" total for yesterday storms and this morning's anafront showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Forsyth and Guilford counties are the places to live this year if you like severe weather and flooding. I swear every storm system, there's some pile of slow moving storms over the I-85/I-40 corridor there and there is a flood warning associated with it. What's the deal with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 I swear every storm system, there's some pile of slow moving storms over the I-85/I-40 corridor there and there is a flood warning associated with it. What's the deal with that? they used to build interstates on ridges to minimize the amount of river crossings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 they used to build interstates on ridges to minimize the amount of river crossings. Ruffles have ridges.* *The preceding senior moment was brought to you by Pfizer (if you need help paying for your medication, tough shit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 15, 2012 Author Share Posted September 15, 2012 NWS Greenville Overall though...quantitative precipitation forecast has been reduced a bit. Not only that...but the timing of the main low passage is a bit later...into Tuesday. What this trend suggests is less of a flooding threat and more of a severe weather threat to the Carolina Piedmont. The new GFS has a cold front moving across the forecast area during the afternoon. East of the front...the GFS develops a plume of cape around 1500 j/kg with 150-250 srh and sufficient low level shear to make one take notice of the potential for organized severe storms and perhaps supercells. This trend is interesting and should be monitored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 We have quite an event coming up for the Southeast, and this one is the first major, widespread, Cool season type of system. First, the big Aleutian Low is pumping up the western Canada ridge, much like the models showed it would. And now there is a decent wave in Texas that will be opening up. As the western ridge builds, it forces the longwave in the northern Plains to enlarge and deepen, capturing and phasing with the southern stream. This will be good first look at how far east or west systems tend to trend (get into that later). A warm front will surge north across Ms, Al, Ga and SC by early Monday with steady rains along it, meanwhile height falls in the nations Midsection are rocketing southeast, so the flow backs strongly. At one point, GFS had a very strong 850 flow with 55knots into the Southern Apps, but it's backed off a little on that. Still, being on the backside of an initially damming high should offer steady, significant rain in the Carolinas and Georgia, while west of the mountains more warm advection rains associated witha developing surface low in Mississippi on Monday. Here's where it gets iffy. The GFS has shifted its axis of heavy duty totals to west of the Mountain Chain, while ECMWF and NAM remain right along it. The pattern all last Winter, last Spring and this Summer probably lends more to a west of the chain for the heaviest totals, but I still expect another max around northeast GA and western NC to western VA mountains thanks to the warm front rains, then the steady southeast windflow rains. But a QLCS line with an embedded meso low might form west of the mountains in the TENN Valley early Tuesday and that could be why the GFS now has its heaviest totals through TN and KY into West VA ...but we'll see. Either way, this is a pretty big event where a lot of folks catch a good rain, and some areas could get near 3" to 4" total, esp. in upslope regions of the southern Apps and anywhere in that qlcs line or meso low (if one forms). This whole mass of rain will get sucked northeast in a wall of rain as height falls and a very deep meriodonal flow slowly works through the East by later Tuesday. The next thing to come from this is the cold air....very cold for September. The year 1981 stands out with some records. It looks like by early Wednesday morning the surface high will be in western TN and with +3 or even +2 at 850 dropping down to the Ky/TN border, if everything goes right like radiating conditions, light winds, then by Wednesday morning some areas of KY and TN especially will be flirting with records. On the left is the current Wednesday morning prog, on the right is 1981: Looking down the road at the remainder of September, I have zero doubt it will finally be a below normal month in terms of temperatures for quite a few sites in the Southeast. We haven't had a below normal month seems like in over a year now, with all the consecutive months of well above normal. Also, if the ECMWF is right in it's next cut-off and deep trough later in the month, the Southeast will have another big rain event, so there's a chance some areas will be above normal on precip...a below temp/above precip combo has been hard to come by since Winter 2010/11. So far it looks overdone though, but the idea of a trough in the nations midsection or the East is probably here to stay the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Great write up Robert! Looking forward to below normal temps for an extended period of time with plenty of rain to throw in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Models continue to increase the instability in the pre-frontal warm sector across the Carolinas, and while lapse rates are not particularly impressive, any breaks in the clouds could enhance that further considering the dewpoints progged by guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHK2e1qOo0s&feature=youtu.be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 16, 2012 Author Share Posted September 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Hello... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 kinda a silly/stupid question, but I will still ask... has anyone ever counted how many cold fronts come through the southeast each year? Then broken it down per month? (ie: September always get two cold fronts; October gets three and November get two in a la nina year, and in an el nino year September get 5; Oct get 2) something along those lines... Or no matter what the pattern each year the Southeast will always have 15 cold fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 19, 2012 Author Share Posted September 19, 2012 NWS Blacksburg Main aspect will be the arrival of a strong fallish type cold front over the weekend including the passage of a deep 500 mb trough from the Great Lakes across the eastern Seaboard into early next week. This system will bring the coolest air of the season with at least some patchy frost potential in the deeper valleys by Tuesday morning as high pressure settles overhead. Ahead of the front/trof...appears enough moisture should get injected under the SW flow aloft to promote a band of pre-frontal rain showers that may affect the mountains Sat night...and out east on Sunday when the true 850 mb front/colder air aloft will arrive. Latest guidance shows a little instability ahead of the boundary in the Piedmont so including an isolated -tsra mention there Sunday. Otherwise models rather close except for timing issues with the front so opting to go closer to the slower European model (ecmwf) for now. Post frontal temperatures the main issue with MOS showing some 30s in the valleys for both Monday/Tuesday mornings and highs staying in the 60s mountains into early next week. Temperatures should moderate some by midweek as the air remains dry and the surface high starts sliding off to the south by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 20, 2012 Author Share Posted September 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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