.....

[bluewave]

.......
 

[donsutherland1]

The increase in summer blocking might well be related to the Arctic Dipole's becoming much more common relative to the variable AO+/AO- patterns of the 20th century. In their 2010 paper, Overland and Wang observed in their 2010 paper:

The AD climate pattern, which has a more meridional anomalous wind pattern compared to the more zonal wind pattern of the AO, occurs more frequenlty in its negative phase in the 21st century compared to the late 20th century. Increased persistence is clear in spring and more recently in summer.

It will be interesting to see what the ECMWF finds.

[The_Global_Warmer]

There is no doubt a dual feedback takes place perpetuating this. This is sickening news. The odds of pattern driven -NAO so exclusively during the Greenland melt season like this wouldn't work unless again albedo feedback is driving the bus. Just like with the arctic sea ice, albedo is what it is. It exists in real time, only in real time, effecting the climate with cause and effect feedback in near real time, no lag.

it's more than ice being melted at a rapid increasing rate, the entire set-up is a heat trap to not only melt ice but warm up area's around it.

GFS on day 3 we can see the 10C 850mb anomaly's along the lower albedo melt zones.

Not exactly sitting right.

Western Greenland melts with low albedo. freshwater runs off into the the Sea regions to the West. The main flow take this warm to the Northern Baffin Bay as it loops around. So again taking warmth poleward. But that area isn't as cold anymore it warms up way above normal and coming back down the pipeline is water 3-5, 4-8C maybe 5-10C in cases above normal. Instead of colder water running South it's warm, thus another warm water amplifier.

[Entropy]

Most of the recent studies have been studying the possible links between reduced Arctic sea ice and

increased winter blocking episodes. Now the ECMWF is researching the potential for reduced

Arctic sea ice and warmer NW Atlantic SST's to increase the chances for more summer blocking.

http://www.ecmwf.int...t/ecmwfnews/301

In an interview with the BBC Science Editor David Shukman, research at ECMWF was described regarding the role of Arctic sea-ice anomalies on summer weather in north-west Europe.

We suspect that declining Arctic sea-ice cover in summer has an association with lower pressure over the UK if there are also higher than normal sea-surface temperatures in the north-west Atlantic. In these circumstances we expect there to be an increased risk of the north- having relatively poor summer weather - wet, cool and windy. This is part of a long-term and large-scale pattern called the Arctic Oscillation that means the UK’s weather can be affected by events far remote from our shores.

The Arctic Oscillation is associated with changes to the position of the jet stream such that during this summer the UK and was in the path of a series of storms. However, there are many other factors that determine our summer weather and the year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability is large. This is why at ECMWF we use what is called ensemble prediction where the range of possibilities is explored by performing 51 parallel forecasts starting from slightly different conditions.

The interview with Professor Alan Thorpe, Director-General of ECMWF, can be watched here.

It will be interesting to see the results of their further research when it becomes available.

Since 2007, the NAO has been in a negative phase for every summer month.

http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table

2007 0.22 -0.47 1.44 0.17 0.66 -1.31 -0.58 -0.14 0.72 0.45 0.58 0.34

2008 0.89 0.73 0.08 -1.07 -1.73 -1.39 -1.27 -1.16 1.02 -0.04 -0.32 -0.28

2009 -0.01 0.06 0.57 -0.20 1.68 -1.21 -2.15 -0.19 1.51 -1.03 -0.02 -1.93

2010 -1.11 -1.98 -0.88 -0.72 -1.49 -0.82 -0.42 -1.22 -0.79 -0.93 -1.62 -1.85

2011 -0.88 0.70 0.61 2.48 -0.06 -1.28 -1.51 -1.35 0.54 0.39 1.36 2.52

2012 1.17 0.42 1.27 0.47 -0.91 -2.53 -1.32 -0.98

It's interesting that sea level pressures have been increasing in the Arctic. Seems to be counter to some expectations, and a surprising result in light of recent Arctic cyclones, like the 963 mb low pressure system last month. Dr. Masters even posted a journal article that found an increase in number and intensity of Arctic cyclone during the summer months:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442%282004%29017%3C2300%3ACAIVOA%3E2.0.CO%3B2.

If pressures have been increasing, it would hard to rectify this with earlier observed increased in Arctic storminess. One would think all of the additional latent heat and moisture would promote increased storminess, and not the other way around.

[CoastalWx]

That's actually an interesting study. I was just talking in house about these recent -NAO summers. Perhaps it relates to the ridging there? FWIW it doesn't mean we expect +NAO summers when we have more ice...it just may force more ridging into the NAO region.

[Entropy]

Yeah, the storm this year coincided with lower pressures in the Western Arctic than we have been seeing during

recent summers. We also saw record breaking rainfalls over NW Alaska near the lower pressure in that region.

https://www2.ucar.ed...-arctic-cyclone

http://www.facebook....&type=3

http://www.facebook....&type=3

Is this perhaps another unforeseen positive feedback? It was generally thought that increased precipitation over the Greenland ice sheet would, at least partially, offset increased melting due to rising temperatures. But these pressure fields seem inconsistent with that hypothesis. The presence of semi-permanent high pressure over the Greenland summit would promote sinking air and reduced moisture/precipitation over the ice sheet. I guess you can throw out any existing calculations on the Greenland ice sheet mass balance. The models have consistently underestimated the speed of changes in the Arctic. It's starting to become apparent that even temperatures sustained at today's levels, on the long run, would result in a seasonal (perhaps year-round) ice-free Arctic Ocean and little, if any, glacial ice over the Greenland subcontinent.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Is this perhaps another unforeseen positive feedback? It was generally thought that increased precipitation over the Greenland ice sheet would, at least partially, offset increased melting due to rising temperatures. But these pressure fields seem inconsistent with that hypothesis. The presence of semi-permanent high pressure over the Greenland summit would promote sinking air and reduced moisture/precipitation over the ice sheet. I guess you can throw out any existing calculations on the Greenland ice sheet mass balance. The models have consistently underestimated the speed of changes in the Arctic. It's starting to become apparent that even temperatures sustained at today's levels, on the long run, would result in a seasonal (perhaps year-round) ice-free Arctic Ocean and little, if any, glacial ice over the Greenland subcontinent.

Global land and sea surface temperatures have been high the last 10 years but have leveled off for the time being. Solar fluctuations are to small to make a difference in this short period. However GHG's have continued to accumulate steadily. Every single summer for a long time has gone into the next melting season with stronger GHG forcing so the direct power with all things being equal is an increase in solar flux onto the ice surfaces, this forcing will keep growing at least another 50 or longer directly.

We see this happen because surface albedo changes were not properly addressed. The max albedo ice/snow is around 0.85 or 85% or solar radiation reaching the surface on a clear day is reflected back. It's not surprising when that starts dropping that radical changes take place in that environment way out of lockstep with the rest of the Earth that is experiencing nothing of the sort.

Now factor in the warming about to come. What will 1C of NH surface warming do? What about North Atlantic sea surface temps rising another 1-2C on average over the next century.

The joke is on our kids and grand-kids and their descendents. People will be plugged into whatever advanced media at the time in 2020, 2030, 2040 in July watching Jason Box or Peter Wadhams(if he is alive) guys who make there living in the crysophere. Jason Box has been on 23 expeditions to Greenland since 1994. Peter Wadhams has been on Submarines since the 1970s in the arctic observing the ice from below. He is far more outspoken and alarming and he is right. These Men and Women who go to the Cryosphere to work on permafrost research, arctic ice, land glaciers, Greenland ice, biologists seeing unprecedented phytoplankton growth further North every couple years it's an epic event because that is what happens when you radically alter the surface albedo and change amount of absorbed solar energy. It's logical, reasonable, fact backed common sense of the Earth's atmospheric system, these scientists have been shot down by others taking the slower approach but many are starting to back off of that and throw the flag, but it's to late.

It's probably time to move to Canada and get a nice large basement that you can hold 5 years at least of food and as much space for water as possible for your Grand Kids, hopefully the political system's don't breakdown when the oceans are rising at rates that feel inconsievable unless they are next to a number like 2100-2150 or 2300-2400.

The volume line on Greenland is taking that ominous free fall look. Once 2012 is added to this the graph will have to go to -2200 GT at least, by 2015 it will have to go to -4000GT at least. Dirty ice is everywhere on Greenland the lower elevations have been exposed faster becaus a slower warming was the initial trigger now enough melt has uncovered the dirty dark layers below the freshest new ice and snow. I don't think many realize most of Greenland has little to no melting at all. Albedo feedback is accelerating that by causing not only the regions where the ice albedo plummeted from warming/albedo change it also causes the sourrounding environment to change by so much extra heat being absorbed. The albedo over the majority of Greenland is just starting to fall faster and expose the dirtier belly of the ice sheet. With so much room left to drop. It need's to be pointed out to those who overlook that whatever albedo the ice sheet drop's to at the end of the summer melt season is where it will be sitting next year when the winter snow is melted off. This is an aggregriete situation, from 12 years of data we can see ice sheet albedo lower during the initial phase in late March and April when it still very cold up there and snow covers most of the ice pack. During the initial melt phase the melting snow only lowers ice sheet albedo by a couple percent. But even 2 percent has huge energy balance implications, then the albedo falls as snow is irradicated.

2012 started it's plummet a few days later than 2010 and 2011 started a few days later than 2012. But year after year it happens earlier and earlier. Because of solar insolation blackout in winter there is limits to how early it can start to fall. Greenland is from 60N to 82N. We can see there is still quite a bit of room for albedo drops over the ice sheet because the Southern 1/3rd is between 60-67N. On top of that how fast the decline is will increase in the same fashion as the initial drop.

Divided by 500M incriments the lowest albedo observed so far is around 50% But this doesn't account for latitude which skews how far low this can actually go. The Darkest region in SW Greenland has been observed to drop down in the 20% range.

Very small changes cause gigantic results. Winter recovery from snowfall is not going to come anywhere near close enough to off-set this. Each year not linear because of weather patterns the fall will grow steeper and earlier. GHG forcings will continue to rise helping snow melt faster, warming oceans will continue to make it easier for warmer air to penetrate further North earlier and earlier during Spring, same with global surface temps/low level temps as the atmosphere warms. All effectively melting snow faster and faster exposing the dirty ice.

2012 was driven by large albedo changes in the 1500-3200M range. During May and June when solar insolation is booming these regions historically haven't given much to the ice mass loss because the top snow layer wasn't melted through or if it was the top compacted layer wasn't melted down to a dirtier layer or lowered albedo ice layer. 2012 like 2010 before it moved the bar. 2007 & 2010 had the best conditions compared to 2011 and 2012, 2011

June 1-Aug 31st OLR anomalys for 2011. 2011 had a much cooler southern 1/3rd averaging around 0.65C above normal for the period, also the Baffin Bay was much cooler than 2010 and 2012. However with many years before having well above normal summers and contributions from warming winters, more energy could be spent on melting down to the dirty ice consequently increasing energy absorption by the ice.

http://i174.photobuc...compday-172.gif

http://i174.photobuc...ng?t=1347135414

http://i174.photobuc...ng?t=1347136628

http://i174.photobuc...z21/X654108.gif

http://3.bp.blogspot...e-mass-loss.jpg

http://i174.photobuc...ng?t=1347131810

http://i174.photobuc...pg?t=1347122171

http://globalclimate...dhams.jpg?w=500

But this alteration doesn't show up directly on the main AGW chart which is global surface temperatures. Bam, you have an out right there to not see reality. If I say look at the rapid warming in the arctic they can counter with saying it's the AMO in perfect timing with the GHG warming signal so the arctic will cool back down, it's wrong and it;s looking for a way out and it's enough that allows people to ignore reality. John Christy says 1938-1944 was similar to the 2007-2012 period. Hopefully for his sake the God he believes in so deeply doesn't exist because when he strolls up to the Pearly Gates there will be a military escort of demons wearing red uniforms to take him into custody if he resists since he will be sent to Hell for telling boldface lies in a position of power and influence in direct conflict with protecting the Earth God created. Maybe he will get sympathy for ignorance and good intentions. If his God was the creator of the Earth it probably wouldn't mind humans bettering themselves but would question why we would continue using methods that are destroying the entire global ecosystem one step at a time when God left us all the resources to do the exact same stuff with barely disrupting the Earth. Does that sound harsh? Yeah, well John Christy is telling bold face lies and happen to deeply believe in god what I said is 100% true. I bet it upsets and enrages some people who will be highly offended, yeah think about that, might be a similar physiological reaction that prevents that person from seeing reality until it's to late, we are still in the build up(can be excused away phase, but this phase is short lived the wall between reality and the segment of society well wishing this away is on it's last leg).

Watt Et Al dismisses the Greenland situation as hype, say's it's part of some 150 year oscillation. That bold face lie comes from a glaciologist talking about one ice core and referencing it happening about every 150 years. That glaciologist apparently doesn't know there are vultures like Watts out there who intentionally misrepresent their work. But for the most part Fake skeptics like Watt's manipulate data. For instance Watt El Al 2012 is completely bogus, Watts might ensure it to be changed and corrected properly to fit peer review, maybe even more accepted peer review which will likely require big changes when it's all said and done. But it doesn't matter Watt's doesn't care about scientific integrity and adding to that data collection, he doesn't care if his name is on that crap. He cares about this:

• Blog Stats
  
  • 125,324,947 views
    

The front page of his blog is like a movie poster. Gee, every movie has someone quoting how great it is, when most are crap. He has almost 15,000 Email news letter subs. That is gigantic in the climate science world. He is essentially the Rush Limbaugh of climate science world. In the United States as a hole the mainstream 70-80% of the adult population thinks Rush Limbaugh is an utterly useless source for factual/reality based information, a complete dismissed joke. And when the line is crossed from joke to folk hero/respect there is a massive divide between the reality the folks who are Rush people or not. There is wide disagreement between the 70-80% but they stand together while a smaller majority. We have found that the majority of all humans are innately progressive to some degree, levels of acceptance of change vary. But a small majority are wired against that much stronger than the rest, people like Rush exploit that for money and power. Watts is also exploiting that. If you just look at Watts you will find reason to deny that statement, but if you take time and say read a few thousand comments on his blog the full spectrum of what he is doing will click or you will just think the majority of his followers/readers are ignorant beyond recognition, stupid with the intellect of a child of the age of 3, or you belong to that club and think unchecked ignorant thoughts are correct. watt's picks and chooses what to correct and acknowledge pending what it is. Now you say but Friv Watts allows people like you to post there to correct it if you want. Yes of course, he can't restrict things that far, but he also knows that does not matter. When people believe things that are that far out of reality, you know like the Earth being created in a few days by a god or being 6000 years old, people living 900 years or rising from the dead. Science, common sense proves that wrong and those folks know that, but still don't believe it. It's no different, it just comes down to the level that person is willing or wired to be manipulated.

Bastardi, Watts, Goodard, Monckton, Tisdale, now Christy has jumped in and many more do this for there own personal reasons, maybe for money from big oil or other interests, but it starts with a few people, some money, and access(internet) to everyone on Earth to weed out that 5, 10, 20% that will go there pending the level of denial that is presented preying on people who want to believe the bullbleep they are selling. Now they have an Army of tens of thousands of people to spread that bullbleep to millions of people who do not give one bleep about weather and climate and are not effected by this yet so they dont' care enough or they accept the bullbleep because there view of climate science is their backyard at best. The Republicans figured this out a long time ago the only difference is there is more at stake in the long run with the Earth's climate system destabilizing.

CONCLUSION: 2005 & 2007 had large ice mass losses with very warm conditions. 2005 had a very large amount of snow to melt off from the previous winter. 2008 and 2009 had lower drops with not ideal conditions.

2010 was the equivelont to the Arctic Sea Ice 2007. A wire to wire torch from May to mid October that changed landscape of the ice.

Whether it takes a couple more years or 5-10 we will see more and more of these EPIC melts with ice loss going from 1000km3, 1700km3, 2500km3 quickly becoming the normal 2000, 3000, 4000 in the next 20 years.

The world will panic when Sea Level Rise doubles and triples over the rest of this decade. Book it!

[Jonger]

Global land and sea surface temperatures have been high the last 10 years but have leveled off for the time being. Solar fluctuations are to small to make a difference in this short period. However GHG's have continued to accumulate steadily. Every single summer for a long time has gone into the next melting season with stronger GHG forcing so the direct power with all things being equal is an increase in solar flux onto the ice surfaces, this forcing will keep growing at least another 50 or longer directly.

We see this happen because surface albedo changes were not properly addressed. The max albedo ice/snow is around 0.85 or 85% or solar radiation reaching the surface on a clear day is reflected back. It's not surprising when that starts dropping that radical changes take place in that environment way out of lockstep with the rest of the Earth that is experiencing nothing of the sort.

Now factor in the warming about to come. What will 1C of NH surface warming do? What about North Atlantic sea surface temps rising another 1-2C on average over the next century.

The joke is on our kids and grand-kids and their descendents. People will be plugged into whatever advanced media at the time in 2020, 2030, 2040 in July watching Jason Box or Peter Wadhams(if he is alive) guys who make there living in the crysophere. Jason Box has been on 23 expeditions to Greenland since 1994. Peter Wadhams has been on Submarines since the 1970s in the arctic observing the ice from below. He is far more outspoken and alarming and he is right. These Men and Women who go to the Cryosphere to work on permafrost research, arctic ice, land glaciers, Greenland ice, biologists seeing unprecedented phytoplankton growth further North every couple years it's an epic event because that is what happens when you radically alter the surface albedo and change amount of absorbed solar energy. It's logical, reasonable, fact backed common sense of the Earth's atmospheric system, these scientists have been shot down by others taking the slower approach but many are starting to back off of that and throw the flag, but it's to late.

It's probably time to move to Canada and get a nice large basement that you can hold 5 years at least of food and as much space for water as possible for your Grand Kids, hopefully the political system's don't breakdown when the oceans are rising at rates that feel inconsievable unless they are next to a number like 2100-2150 or 2300-2400.

The volume line on Greenland is taking that ominous free fall look. Once 2012 is added to this the graph will have to go to -2200 GT at least, by 2015 it will have to go to -4000GT at least. Dirty ice is everywhere on Greenland the lower elevations have been exposed faster becaus a slower warming was the initial trigger now enough melt has uncovered the dirty dark layers below the freshest new ice and snow. I don't think many realize most of Greenland has little to no melting at all. Albedo feedback is accelerating that by causing not only the regions where the ice albedo plummeted from warming/albedo change it also causes the sourrounding environment to change by so much extra heat being absorbed. The albedo over the majority of Greenland is just starting to fall faster and expose the dirtier belly of the ice sheet. With so much room left to drop. It need's to be pointed out to those who overlook that whatever albedo the ice sheet drop's to at the end of the summer melt season is where it will be sitting next year when the winter snow is melted off. This is an aggregriete situation, from 12 years of data we can see ice sheet albedo lower during the initial phase in late March and April when it still very cold up there and snow covers most of the ice pack. During the initial melt phase the melting snow only lowers ice sheet albedo by a couple percent. But even 2 percent has huge energy balance implications, then the albedo falls as snow is irradicated.

2012 started it's plummet a few days later than 2010 and 2011 started a few days later than 2012. But year after year it happens earlier and earlier. Because of solar insolation blackout in winter there is limits to how early it can start to fall. Greenland is from 60N to 82N. We can see there is still quite a bit of room for albedo drops over the ice sheet because the Southern 1/3rd is between 60-67N. On top of that how fast the decline is will increase in the same fashion as the initial drop.

Divided by 500M incriments the lowest albedo observed so far is around 50% But this doesn't account for latitude which skews how far low this can actually go. The Darkest region in SW Greenland has been observed to drop down in the 20% range.

Very small changes cause gigantic results. Winter recovery from snowfall is not going to come anywhere near close enough to off-set this. Each year not linear because of weather patterns the fall will grow steeper and earlier. GHG forcings will continue to rise helping snow melt faster, warming oceans will continue to make it easier for warmer air to penetrate further North earlier and earlier during Spring, same with global surface temps/low level temps as the atmosphere warms. All effectively melting snow faster and faster exposing the dirty ice.

2012 was driven by large albedo changes in the 1500-3200M range. During May and June when solar insolation is booming these regions historically haven't given much to the ice mass loss because the top snow layer wasn't melted through or if it was the top compacted layer wasn't melted down to a dirtier layer or lowered albedo ice layer. 2012 like 2010 before it moved the bar. 2007 & 2010 had the best conditions compared to 2011 and 2012, 2011

June 1-Aug 31st OLR anomalys for 2011. 2011 had a much cooler southern 1/3rd averaging around 0.65C above normal for the period, also the Baffin Bay was much cooler than 2010 and 2012. However with many years before having well above normal summers and contributions from warming winters, more energy could be spent on melting down to the dirty ice consequently increasing energy absorption by the ice.

http://i174.photobuc...compday-172.gif

http://i174.photobuc...ng?t=1347135414

http://i174.photobuc...ng?t=1347136628

http://i174.photobuc...z21/X654108.gif

http://3.bp.blogspot...e-mass-loss.jpg

http://i174.photobuc...ng?t=1347131810

http://i174.photobuc...pg?t=1347122171

http://globalclimate...dhams.jpg?w=500

But this alteration doesn't show up directly on the main AGW chart which is global surface temperatures. Bam, you have an out right there to not see reality. If I say look at the rapid warming in the arctic they can counter with saying it's the AMO in perfect timing with the GHG warming signal so the arctic will cool back down, it's wrong and it;s looking for a way out and it's enough that allows people to ignore reality. John Christy says 1938-1944 was similar to the 2007-2012 period. Hopefully for his sake the God he believes in so deeply doesn't exist because when he strolls up to the Pearly Gates there will be a military escort of demons wearing red uniforms to take him into custody if he resists since he will be sent to Hell for telling boldface lies in a position of power and influence in direct conflict with protecting the Earth God created. Maybe he will get sympathy for ignorance and good intentions. If his God was the creator of the Earth it probably wouldn't mind humans bettering themselves but would question why we would continue using methods that are destroying the entire global ecosystem one step at a time when God left us all the resources to do the exact same stuff with barely disrupting the Earth. Does that sound harsh? Yeah, well John Christy is telling bold face lies and happen to deeply believe in god what I said is 100% true. I bet it upsets and enrages some people who will be highly offended, yeah think about that, might be a similar physiological reaction that prevents that person from seeing reality until it's to late, we are still in the build up(can be excused away phase, but this phase is short lived the wall between reality and the segment of society well wishing this away is on it's last leg).

Watt Et Al dismisses the Greenland situation as hype, say's it's part of some 150 year oscillation. That bold face lie comes from a glaciologist talking about one ice core and referencing it happening about every 150 years. That glaciologist apparently doesn't know there are vultures like Watts out there who intentionally misrepresent their work. But for the most part Fake skeptics like Watt's manipulate data. For instance Watt El Al 2012 is completely bogus, Watts might ensure it to be changed and corrected properly to fit peer review, maybe even more accepted peer review which will likely require big changes when it's all said and done. But it doesn't matter Watt's doesn't care about scientific integrity and adding to that data collection, he doesn't care if his name is on that crap. He cares about this:

• Blog Stats
  
  • 125,324,947 views
    

The front page of his blog is like a movie poster. Gee, every movie has someone quoting how great it is, when most are crap. He has almost 15,000 Email news letter subs. That is gigantic in the climate science world. He is essentially the Rush Limbaugh of climate science world. In the United States as a hole the mainstream 70-80% of the adult population thinks Rush Limbaugh is an utterly useless source for factual/reality based information, a complete dismissed joke. And when the line is crossed from joke to folk hero/respect there is a massive divide between the reality the folks who are Rush people or not. There is wide disagreement between the 70-80% but they stand together while a smaller majority. We have found that the majority of all humans are innately progressive to some degree, levels of acceptance of change vary. But a small majority are wired against that much stronger than the rest, people like Rush exploit that for money and power. Watts is also exploiting that. If you just look at Watts you will find reason to deny that statement, but if you take time and say read a few thousand comments on his blog the full spectrum of what he is doing will click or you will just think the majority of his followers/readers are ignorant beyond recognition, stupid with the intellect of a child of the age of 3, or you belong to that club and think unchecked ignorant thoughts are correct. watt's picks and chooses what to correct and acknowledge pending what it is. Now you say but Friv Watts allows people like you to post there to correct it if you want. Yes of course, he can't restrict things that far, but he also knows that does not matter. When people believe things that are that far out of reality, you know like the Earth being created in a few days by a god or being 6000 years old, people living 900 years or rising from the dead. Science, common sense proves that wrong and those folks know that, but still don't believe it. It's no different, it just comes down to the level that person is willing or wired to be manipulated.

Bastardi, Watts, Goodard, Monckton, Tisdale, now Christy has jumped in and many more do this for there own personal reasons, maybe for money from big oil or other interests, but it starts with a few people, some money, and access(internet) to everyone on Earth to weed out that 5, 10, 20% that will go there pending the level of denial that is presented preying on people who want to believe the bullbleep they are selling. Now they have an Army of tens of thousands of people to spread that bullbleep to millions of people who do not give one bleep about weather and climate and are not effected by this yet so they dont' care enough or they accept the bullbleep because there view of climate science is their backyard at best. The Republicans figured this out a long time ago the only difference is there is more at stake in the long run with the Earth's climate system destabilizing.

CONCLUSION: 2005 & 2007 had large ice mass losses with very warm conditions. 2005 had a very large amount of snow to melt off from the previous winter. 2008 and 2009 had lower drops with not ideal conditions.

2010 was the equivelont to the Arctic Sea Ice 2007. A wire to wire torch from May to mid October that changed landscape of the ice.

Whether it takes a couple more years or 5-10 we will see more and more of these EPIC melts with ice loss going from 1000km3, 1700km3, 2500km3 quickly becoming the normal 2000, 3000, 4000 in the next 20 years.

The world will panic when Sea Level Rise doubles and triples over the rest of this decade. Book it!

This is painful to read, I'm sorry.

[The_Global_Warmer]

This is painful to read, I'm sorry.

not as painful as the consequences of ignoring the catastrophe we set in motion.

Greenland is as dangerous as a methane bomb.

If Greenland averages 3000KM3 a year from 2013-2050. 37 * 3000 = 110,000KM3 total.

110,000KM3/360KM3 = 305MM = 3O.5CM = 1 FOOT.

Lets add in another 3MM per year for other causes.

111MM so 416MM = 16.3 inches.

[Jonger]

not as painful as the consequences of ignoring the catastrophe we set in motion.

Greenland is as dangerous as a methane bomb.

If Greenland averages 3000KM3 a year from 2013-2050. 37 * 3000 = 110,000KM3 total.

110,000KM3/360KM3 = 305MM = 3O.5CM = 1 FOOT.

Lets add in another 3MM per year for other causes.

111MM so 416MM = 16.3 inches.

Sea Level is rising and has been rising for over 1000 years... the rate is slightly faster now, but its still slow.

The relative sea level rise (RSLR) curve from Knells Island shows little change between 500 and 1000 AD, then the rate of RSLR accelerates until ~1600 AD to about 2.5 mm/year. From 1600 to 1700 AD, the curve is flat, then rises to about 1.7 mm/year, with an acceleration to 3 mm/year in the last 100 years. The Great Island RSLR curve shows a rate of 1.7 mm/year from 1400 AD on, with a short slow-down at ~1700 AD, and a slightly faster rate of 2.3 mm/year in the last 300 years.

http://adsabs.harvar...AGUFMOS71D0323T

What action do you expect to happen overnight? Why don't you start learning Chinese so that you can communicate your warning to them.. We are reducing carbon output in the United States.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Sea Level is rising and has been rising for over 1000 years... the rate is slightly faster now, but its still slow.

The relative sea level rise (RSLR) curve from Knells Island shows little change between 500 and 1000 AD, then the rate of RSLR accelerates until ~1600 AD to about 2.5 mm/year. From 1600 to 1700 AD, the curve is flat, then rises to about 1.7 mm/year, with an acceleration to 3 mm/year in the last 100 years. The Great Island RSLR curve shows a rate of 1.7 mm/year from 1400 AD on, with a short slow-down at ~1700 AD, and a slightly faster rate of 2.3 mm/year in the last 300 years.

http://adsabs.harvar...AGUFMOS71D0323T

What action do you expect to happen overnight? Why don't you start learning Chinese so that you can communicate your warning to them.. We are reducing carbon output in the United States.

2.5MM x 600 = 1500MM = 150CM = 60 inches = 1.5 meters

1.7MM x 200 = 340MM = 34Cm = 13.3 inches = .34 Meters

3.0MM x 100 = 300MM = 30 CM = 12 inches = .30 Meters Total for Knells Island: 2.15 Meters in the last 1000 years not including 2000-2012.

That's awesome but GSLR is no where near 2.15 Meters during that period. So I am not sure what your point is. Many areas rise because of sinking land which is probably your Knell Island case. I will try and make this more uniform for you one last time if you fail to comprehend it, maybe as it's happening in real time you will be able to understand. But rehashing the most obvious laid out data that has been represented here over and over is tiresome.

On top of that this planet operated since it's existance with the same rules, laws, and systems that naturally coelesed in our universe. After 4+ billion years of business as ussual we showed up and we still had a nil impact on that until 200 years ago. In that time we have undone natural process's that take the Earth millions of years to go threw in decades and we are still doing it at the max we have done even curbing our appetite slightly. But educated scientists that can't see just on that knowlege that maybe our intervention if mettled in the wrong stuff could have a dire effect. We could shatter this planet at this point..not even just torch the surface, we have the capability to litterally make the Earth go BOOM like planets have in SCI FI television. But surely little ole human peoples couldn't ruin the ecosystem.

1. Historical Sea Level rise has nothing to do with what is happening right now.

2. Greenland's entire ice sheet is filled with layers of dust, soot, and other particles much darker than white that collect, like dust from volcanoes. Ice melt is spreading from positive feedback up the ice sheet. This albedo change will eventually spread to the entire ice sheet in the way it has the bottom 1/3rd.

Reading Material on Green;and Albedo #1

Reading Material on Greenland Albedo #2

2.1

Greenland ice sheet mass loss has accelerated responding to combined glacier discharge and surface melt water runoff increases. During summer, absorbed solar energy, modulated at the surface primarily by albedo, is the dominant factor governing surface melt variability in the ablation area. NASA MODIS data spanning 13 summers (2000 – 2012), indicate that mid-summer (July) ice sheet albedo declined by 0.064 from a value of 0.752 in the early 2000s. The ice sheet accordingly absorbed 100 EJ more solar energy(that is equivalent to all of the energy used in the United States on a yearly basis). for the month of July in 2012 than in the early 2000s. This additional energy flux during summer doubled melt rates in the ice sheet ablation area during the observation period.

Abnormally strong anticyclonic circulation, associated with a persistent summer North Atlantic Oscillation extreme 2007-2012, enabled 3 amplifying mechanisms to maximize the albedo feedback: 1) increased warm (south) air advection along the western ice sheet increased surface sensible heating that in turn enhanced snow grain metamorphic rates, further reducing albedo; 2) increased surface downward shortwave flux, leading to more surface heating and further albedo reduction; and 3) reduced snowfall rates sustained low albedo, maximizing surface solar heating, progressively lowering albedo over multiple years. The summer net infrared and solar radiation for the high elevation accumulation area reached positive values during this period, contributing to an abrupt melt area increase in 2012.

A number of factors make it reasonable to expect more melt episodes covering 100% of the ice sheet area in coming years: 1) the past 13 y of increasing surface air temperatures have eroded snowpack ‘cold content’, preconditioning the ice sheet for earlier melt onset. Less heat is required to bring the surface to melting; 2) Greenland temperatures, have lagged the N Hemisphere average in the 2000s, need to increase further for Greenland to be in phase with the N Hemisphere average. 3) Arctic amplification of enhanced greenhouse warming is driven by albedo feedback over sea ice, terrestrial environments, and through autumn-winter heat release from open water areas. Likely melt area increases is despite a second order negative feedback operating in the accumulation area identified statistically from more summer snowfall (brightening effect) in anomalously warm summers. Without this negative feedback, the accumulation area complete surface melting may have happened sooner than in 2012.

While it has been shown that the ice sheet dynamics can adjust rapidly to ice flow perturbations, a negative feedback responsivity, the mass imbalance of the ice sheet in the coming decades is likely to be increasingly negative because of the positive feedback from surface albedo with air temperature. Surface melting may therefore increasingly dominate ice sheet mass loss, as glaciers retreat from a marine termini and the area of low albedo expands over the gradually sloping ice sheet. The albedo feedback ensures an increasing solar energy absorption. What could shut the positive feedback down would be a combination of an anomalously cold winter and anomalously thick snowpack. This scenario is possible given the cooling effect of a major N Hemisphere volcanic eruption or some other event to reduce surface heating.

3. Thermal expansion has slowed it's roll the last 10 years:

Since 2004 thermal expansion has flat-lined quite a bit lower SLR contributions down under 0.5MM/YR

Rest assured this won't last

since 2004 0-2000M Thermal expansion accounts for 0.4-0.5MM/YR sea level rise. This is likely temporary but never the less a large drop drop from the previously estimated 1.5-2.0MM/YR caused by thermal expansion.

4. Sea level Rise is increasing and giving us a big FU for setting the wheels in motion. This is the only measurements using May, June and part of July. We can see the flat line from thermal expansion slowing down quickly back around the 2005-2007 time frame when global ssts dropped sharply threw 2008. But Sea Levels didn't drop because land glacial melt was increasing quite a bit by then. After 2010 global sea surface temps dropped sharply again and caused some of the dip along with record flooding over 2010 and 2011 or rain fall this also effects short term sea level rise. Since 2011 global ssts have gone up this will help it rise as well, but OHC has only slowly rised so it's effects since 2005 are extremely minor. Unless SST's actually rise above anything since 1998 they are not accounting for anything but flucuations at the surface that we already hit in 2000-2005 and 2010, not a net gain, the sst's of 2012 just bring the sea level back up to those thermal expansion highs at the suface. knowing this we can go back to the 2005 peak and basically account sst's as a wash.

So we account for the OHC rise about 3.0-3.5MM since 2005. Using the SSR text files we can comare 2005 around this time to what we have so far through early July on this data set.

The numbers in the graph are averaged over a longer period. These are the most recent 10 day averages that get weighted with the previous 30 days which were lower because the bottom out is in March/April and peak is in late Sept/Early Oct when Northern Hemisphere glacial melt comes to a complete end and Antarctica glacial melt/southern hemispheric melt is moving up. So we will see more sharp rising this year expecially since Greenland/North American glaciers at the minimum pumped out 2.5-3MM of SLR rise this year.

2005.5636: 18.49

2005.5879: 19.77

2005.5614: 19.81

2012.5603: 41.82

2012.5874: 43.38

2012.6144: 42.34

These numbers do not include GIA which is an estimated rise put into other data sets.

So we account 4MM for Thermal Expansion and we get 3MM/YR attributed to ice balance loss. You can thank Greenland for that.

Going into the 2012 Greenland melt season. SInce 2005 Greenland has lost about 2000km3 of ice mass = 5.55MM of SLR. If we estimate 2012 ice mass loss at 900km3 that brings it to 8MM.

From 2010-2012 with the 900km3 estimate we are looking at 5MM.

If we somehow managed to stay at 900km3/yr till 2020. 2012-2020 would be 7200km3/360km3 = 20MM.

1500km3 = 33.3MM

2000km3 = 44.4MM

5. What does China matter? The United States has done enough, it doesn't really matter. What mattered was the warnings going ignored even as of now. Scientists have been wrong all over the place with the implications of this, always changing projections as new information flows in.

But some people accept this reality and understand that it would happen until we became better at understanding how it will play out and also not singling one thing out and adding up the sum of damages to keep perspective on the problem.