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September 8th Severe Threat


SmokeEater

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I think the MD in Central PA sums up what is expected to happen at this point.

DISCUSSION...A NARROW BUT LONG BAND OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY WITHOUT

CG DETECTED LIGHTNING EXTENDED FROM SWRN NY TO ERN KY AS OF

1530Z...ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. AN 80-100 MILE GAP REMAINS

BETWEEN THIS AND THE LEADING EDGE OF MORE ROBUST SURFACE HEATING

WHERE 15Z TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AS

THE FRONT MERGES WITH THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE

IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED. LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE

STRONGEST WITH NRN EXTENT...WHILE STRONGER HEATING WITH SRN EXTENT

SHOULD PROMOTE RELATIVELY GREATER BUOYANCY. THIS SETUP APPEARS TO BE

SUPPORTIVE FOR THE ADVERTISED POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS

DAMAGING WIND EVENTS. A FEW EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR

PROBABLE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NY.

classic Fall squall.

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Things are popping on the leading edge now of that line. I have bolted up in my chair like a startled deer in the woods.

Haha great visual. That pre frontal stuff is promising. Gotta watch for potential spin ups as what's happening towards NYC.

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Things are popping on the leading edge now of that line. I have bolted up in my chair like a startled deer in the woods.

Haha great visual. That pre frontal stuff is promising. Gotta watch for potential spin ups as what's happening towards NYC.

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CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

SOUTHERN LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

YORK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 151 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SEVERE STORMS EXTENDED FROM

LEWISBERRY TO SEVEN VALLEYS TO LINEBORO...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT

45 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN

EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

Warnings worded up to 70mph by York..

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post-810-134712823979.jpg

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0112 PM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NJ...MD...NRN VA/DE...DC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636...

VALID 081812Z - 081945Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636

CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND THREAT INCREASING AS COLD FRONT MERGES WITH

PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND. EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWING STRUCTURES WILL

BE CAPABLE OF ENHANCED/SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE WITH COVERAGE LIKELY

INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY.

DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT FROM BRADFORD COUNTY PA TO HIGHLAND COUNTY

VA AS OF 18Z. THIS FRONT IS ABOUT TO MERGE WITH PRE-FRONTAL

CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. AS

THIS PROCESS OCCURS AMIDST A DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY

SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S...THIS QLCS SHOULD

INTENSIFY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWING/LEWP

STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/NUMEROUS REPORTS OF

WIND DAMAGE. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY

ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF WW 636 ON THE FRINGE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL

SWLYS.

..GRAMS.. 09/08/2012

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 38917828 39427728 40307636 40937599 41237557 41267516

41147453 40687408 40067421 39137508 38387641 38367722

38397802 38577844 38917828

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