SmokeEater Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Figured I would give Saturday it's own thread, since there's an enhanced risk for severe wx on Saturday. SPC has 30% hatched for sig severe for the area. Mentions embedded supercells with damaging wind and isolated tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 God knows with LCLs should be low enough with this awful humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Stealing from the generic severe thread: To be honest, the farther north and northwest, the better the odds of getting nailed...Scranton, Williamsport, Reading look to do better from a timing standpoint. The line will pop pretty well through Philly assuming those dynamics hold but it could be more intense farther north/west. the 850 jet is rippin' through Upstate New York and Northern PA. Gonna be one nasty late summer squall line firing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Since I'm going to be finishing up moving my forecast is hot and humid conditions for the afternoon with strong to severe thunderstorms in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Just for ****s and giggles, Dr. Forbes has a torcon of 4 for Central and Eastern PA, same as NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Decent hodo for SE pa @0z While not a widespread threat for tornados, any bowing segment with an "appendage" out front of it or discrete stuff ahead of it could produce a spin up. Should be a mean looking squall line.. Let's hope it doesn't turn out like our last "bust" for us folks down here in SEPA (anyone have that date? UPSTATE PA GOT CRUSHED ON THAT ONE). Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Also, from the SREF Sent from my iPad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I suppose things just got a little interesting for tomorrow. Moderate risk for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 This will be fun to track as I'm finishing up packing. I'm thinking there will be lots of wind reports. I suppose things just got a little interesting for tomorrow. Moderate risk for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 ^^^^ Sexy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Thanks!! Oh wait.... ^^^^ Sexy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Hahaha oo man!!! Any girl into the weather is A OK in my books! Here's the related disco ...DAMAGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SATURDAY... POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/ECMWF...SUGGEST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIG INTO LOWER MI BY 08/12 BEFORE EJECTING NEWD IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION AND DEEPENING OVER SERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. 90-120M 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WRN/UPSTATE NY DURING THE DAY ENSURING A STRONGLY FORCED AND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE COLD FRONT. THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS A FRONTAL INTRUSION THAT WILL INDUCE A BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SURGES ACROSS THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. ALL INDICATIONS FAVOR A SQUALL ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AT SUNRISE FROM SRN ONTARIO SWD ACROSS OH...TRAILING INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO WRN NY/PA...ESPECIALLY BY 18Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM. ALTHOUGH FORECAST LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS IS FAIRLY MOIST ATTM WITH UPPER 60S-70F SFC DEW POINTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT SPREAD NWD ACROSS PA/NJ INTO UPSTATE NY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD NWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER TO SUPPORT ROBUST UPDRAFTS WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT EJECTS ACROSS WRN PA TO SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 70KT OVER UPSTATE NY BY 09/00Z. WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SERN ONTARIO FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WHILE A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NRN NJ NWD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY SUGGEST TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AND WITH CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LINE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRIMARY SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON TRAILING SWWD INTO CNTRL VA BY 09/00Z WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I'm just looking forward to those dew points behind this squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I'm just looking forward to those dew points behind this squall line. Alex, what an older (maybe wiser) Met would say in the face of a severe weather threat? Thank you! Geography for $200 Alex please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Alex, what an older (maybe wiser) Met would say in the face of a severe weather threat? Thank you! Geography for $200 Alex please. Older, not necessarily wiser. This is almost a fitting end to a miserably hot and sometimes humid summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 This will be fun to track as I'm finishing up packing. I'm thinking there will be lots of wind reports. I saw this movie earlier in the season. There was plenty of hype, and the trailer looked great, but in the end, there wasn't a lot of action...I'll take a pessimistic view and say that there's 55% chance of nothing happening...EDIT: and hope I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I'm just looking forward to those dew points behind this squall line. +109 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 +109 90 times more? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Check out the briefing package: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Finally getting around to looking at the parameters for saturday, The 12z nam looked a good bit better in terms of ehi, instability than the 18z nam. If the 18z nam is right the line is driven pretty much by shear with weak instability. Looks like the best area for tornadic stuff will be from ne pa to albany in my eyes. Best ehi, good instability, helicity and insane shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 The simulated radar in the briefing shows anyone at the shore hoping for something they better head west. At least it looks dry through 11pm at my race track tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 The simulated radar in the briefing shows anyone at the shore hoping for something they better head west. At least it looks dry through 11pm at my race track tomorrow night I think that timing is to slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 The simulated radar in the briefing shows anyone at the shore hoping for something they better head west. At least it looks dry through 11pm at my race track tomorrow night Jim, Those mesoscale models tend to run slow. Most of the time if they are on its 1-3hrs faster than depicted, especially at the current temporal fcst range. P.S. More proof I'm old, young Mike got his response in faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 18z hi res NAM Sent from my iPad HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Ok so mike and tony, what time you think it will reach new Egypt? I have to make decisions for tomorrow night, they kinda rely on me when weather approaches...thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 not good..this figures to impact the Rutgers-Howard football game...kickoff set at 330PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Ok so mike and tony, what time you think it will reach new Egypt? I have to make decisions for tomorrow night, they kinda rely on me when weather approaches...thanks guys. Just looking at the NAM graphic verbatim, it seems like 8pm... w/ Bridgeport being wiped out earlier. But the earlier SPC disco would seem to indicate a couple hours later. Of course that was based on earlier guidance. The other thing that has to be considered is that most people would be travelling west after the event. Meh -- you're in a tight spot this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Ok so mike and tony, what time you think it will reach new Egypt? I have to make decisions for tomorrow night, they kinda rely on me when weather approaches...thanks guys. Jim, I would add three hours to the mesoscale model timing to be safe, if you need a time now would think 7-8 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Just looking at the NAM graphic verbatim, it seems like 8pm... w/ Bridgeport being wiped out earlier. But the earlier SPC disco would seem to indicate a couple hours later. Of course that was based on earlier guidance. The other thing that has to be considered is that most people would be travelling west after the event. Meh -- you're in a tight spot this weekend! Does he really care about what people are doing afterwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 8pm???? Oooof. Not good! And likely severe limits too I'm guessing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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