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September 8th Severe Threat


SmokeEater

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Stealing from the generic severe thread:

To be honest, the farther north and northwest, the better the odds of getting nailed...Scranton, Williamsport, Reading look to do better from a timing standpoint. The line will pop pretty well through Philly assuming those dynamics hold but it could be more intense farther north/west.

the 850 jet is rippin' through Upstate New York and Northern PA. Gonna be one nasty late summer squall line firing up.

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Decent hodo for SE pa @0z

While not a widespread threat for tornados, any bowing segment with an "appendage" out front of it or discrete stuff ahead of it could produce a spin up.

Should be a mean looking squall line.. Let's hope it doesn't turn out like our last "bust" for us folks down here in SEPA (anyone have that date? UPSTATE PA GOT CRUSHED ON THAT ONE).

Sent from my iPad HD

post-810-134702188703.jpg

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Hahaha oo man!!! Any girl into the weather is A OK in my books!

Here's the related disco

...DAMAGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE

NORTHEASTERN U.S. SATURDAY...

POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH

OF THE NERN U.S. SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE

NAM/ECMWF...SUGGEST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES

WILL DIG INTO LOWER MI BY 08/12 BEFORE EJECTING NEWD IN A NEGATIVELY

TILTED FASHION AND DEEPENING OVER SERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. 90-120M

12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WRN/UPSTATE NY DURING THE DAY

ENSURING A STRONGLY FORCED AND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE COLD FRONT. THIS

EVOLUTION SUGGESTS A FRONTAL INTRUSION THAT WILL INDUCE A BAND OF

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SURGES ACROSS THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC

REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND.

ALL INDICATIONS FAVOR A SQUALL ALONG THE WIND SHIFT AT SUNRISE FROM

SRN ONTARIO SWD ACROSS OH...TRAILING INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS

ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO WRN

NY/PA...ESPECIALLY BY 18Z AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM.

ALTHOUGH FORECAST LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP BOUNDARY

LAYER AIRMASS IS FAIRLY MOIST ATTM WITH UPPER 60S-70F SFC DEW POINTS

IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. THERE IS LITTLE REASON

TO BELIEVE THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT SPREAD NWD ACROSS PA/NJ INTO

UPSTATE NY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY

WILL SPREAD NWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER TO SUPPORT ROBUST

UPDRAFTS WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE EXPECTED MID LEVEL JET THAT SHOULD

INTENSIFY AS IT EJECTS ACROSS WRN PA TO SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 70KT

OVER UPSTATE NY BY 09/00Z. WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER SERN ONTARIO

FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING

ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. WHILE A DAMAGING SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED ALONG

THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE

FAVORABLE FOR PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN

THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM NRN NJ NWD THROUGH

THE HUDSON VALLEY SUGGEST TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IF DISCRETE

SUPERCELLS CAN EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AND WITH CIRCULATIONS

WITHIN THE LINE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BACK EDGE OF

THE PRIMARY SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY BY LATE

AFTERNOON TRAILING SWWD INTO CNTRL VA BY 09/00Z WITH SUBSEQUENT

MOVEMENT ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND BY 06Z.

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day2probotlk_1730_any.gif

This will be fun to track as I'm finishing up packing. I'm thinking there will be lots of wind reports.

I saw this movie earlier in the season. There was plenty of hype, and the trailer looked great, but in the end, there wasn't a lot of action...I'll take a pessimistic view and say that there's 55% chance of nothing happening...EDIT: and hope I'm wrong

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Finally getting around to looking at the parameters for saturday, The 12z nam looked a good bit better in terms of ehi, instability than the 18z nam. If the 18z nam is right the line is driven pretty much by shear with weak instability. Looks like the best area for tornadic stuff will be from ne pa to albany in my eyes. Best ehi, good instability, helicity and insane shear.

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The simulated radar in the briefing shows anyone at the shore hoping for something they better head west. At least it looks dry through 11pm at my race track tomorrow night

Jim,

Those mesoscale models tend to run slow. Most of the time if they are on its 1-3hrs faster than depicted, especially at the current temporal fcst range.

P.S. More proof I'm old, young Mike got his response in faster.

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Ok so mike and tony, what time you think it will reach new Egypt? I have to make decisions for tomorrow night, they kinda rely on me when weather approaches...thanks guys.

Just looking at the NAM graphic verbatim, it seems like 8pm... w/ Bridgeport being wiped out earlier. But the earlier SPC disco would seem to indicate a couple hours later. Of course that was based on earlier guidance.

The other thing that has to be considered is that most people would be travelling west after the event. Meh -- you're in a tight spot this weekend! ;)

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Just looking at the NAM graphic verbatim, it seems like 8pm... w/ Bridgeport being wiped out earlier. But the earlier SPC disco would seem to indicate a couple hours later. Of course that was based on earlier guidance.

The other thing that has to be considered is that most people would be travelling west after the event. Meh -- you're in a tight spot this weekend! ;)

Does he really care about what people are doing afterwards? ;)

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