Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 i disagree. for one many of our good events are pre-frontal. Yes - the pre-frontal trough often gives us some really nice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 That tends to be more when we need the instability tho. Remember that this system is very dynamic so even if we have a modified airmass - the forcing along the front will likely still be able to produce something - even if it's not super severe. Most of the models pumped up the line after the apps. It's possible what's forming now is the main event. More should develop south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Most of the models pumped up the line after the apps. It's possible what's forming now is the main event. More should develop south. I wouldn't doubt it. Multiple rounds are hard to come by here. Though there is still that nice pencil thing line along the front - maybe it'll come thru later as gusty showers right with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... * UNTIL 215 PM EDT * AT 105 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EMMITSBURG TO WALKERSVILLE TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRADDOCK HEIGHTS...AND WERE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BRADDOCK HEIGHTS... WALKERSVILLE... TANEYTOWN... FREDERICK... BALLENGER CREEK... GREEN VALLEY... NEW MARKET... WESTMINSTER... MANCHESTER... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Looks like the best of it should pass north of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The sad thing is, with the new job, instead of enjoying a good setup, all I can think is, "This is going to totally ruin my Saturday." I hate it when I'm right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Looks interesting if right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Looks like more forming sw now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Looks interesting if right lol it bows right at the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 lol it bows right at the metro area. Hopefully it solidifies soon so I can make a decision as to what to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Hopefully it solidifies soon so I can make a decision as to what to do. It will split around you, I'm sure. Either that or it'll strand you at one of the memorials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The frontal band is racing.. starting to increase reflectivity along it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Hopefully there was a 18z SPEC sounding, should be interesting to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Also, GFS low-level winds aren't as backed as the NAM, which raises concerns as the GFS tends to be more correct in that regard in our region. GFS wins again: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 ^ Does that mean a zero tornado threat Ellinwood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 ^ Does that mean a zero tornado threat Ellinwood? I don't think our tor threat was ever super good. Probably still can't rule out a spinup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The good news is we haven't mixed out all that much. DCA and IAD are reporting south pretty strong pre frontal winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Second line moving in here now. Much different than earlier with a lot of wind kicking up this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I'm still waffling. I guess I just have to go sit on the Mall for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 There sure is quite a bit of visible shear ahead of the activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 ^ Does that mean a zero tornado threat Ellinwood? Not zero but it's pretty low... still too early to write anything off, that's for sure. Certainly a lot less of a risk than if the NAM had verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
esullivan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 What does anyone think the timeframe for this moving thru the metro area? Suppose to go out but dog is now terrified of storms after the derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Radar's looking increasingly good. Given how fast the frontal band is moving I doubt we have two rounds in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 What does anyone think the timeframe for this moving thru the metro area? Suppose to go out but dog is now terrified of storms after the derecho. Probably 4-5 for DC? Hard to say for sure but not too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 91.3 for the high thusfar. Breeze is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 210 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN HARFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... * UNTIL 330 PM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Radar is starting to really look good for our prospects. Hope it continues that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Upper 80s to lower 90s in the area and DPs around 70... good thing we have the strong breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Quite a change in airmass behind the front. It is 55* at Garrett County Airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 And we begin BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 216 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN VIRGINIA... SHENANDOAH COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... CITY OF WINCHESTER IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN PAGE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... SOUTHEASTERN HARDY COUNTY IN EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 330 PM EDT * AT 211 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WINCHESTER TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BROADWAY...AND WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... TIMBERVILLE... STEPHENS CITY... GREENWOOD... STRASBURG... MOUNT JACKSON... LURAY... BERRYVILLE... FRONT ROYAL... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... ALTHOUGH THIS LINE OF STORMS IS NOT PRODUCING MUCH LIGHTNING...IT IS STILL DANGEROUS. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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