Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Saturday, Sept 8, 2012 Severe Event


Kmlwx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 383
  • Created
  • Last Reply

A somewhat good hodo for KDCA at 5 pm tomorrow per 18z NAM -- http://68.226.77.253..._META__KDCA.png

That hodo would definitely have some nado potential. There is enough shear there to get some ground-parallel vorticity going and enough turn in the SR wind field to advect a tilted vortex tube into the updraft. That hodo would also be somewhat favorable for splitters.

Also remember that in supercells it is the shear/meso and the resulting mesoscale pressure perturbation accelerations that helps them live. Massive amounts of instability are NOT required.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's enough forcing with the front that it's hard to see how we don't get widespread storms.

These kind of powerful fronts are usually like that I feel like. That late Nov/early Dec system in 2006 comes to my mind. Might not be similar at all but I know we had a decent tor risk that day and some good lines went through. That was when I got weenie tagged lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm still rooting for at least something notable to come through this far south. Soundings actually look halfway decent at RNK so I'm thinking a rather potent line of storms down this way as well. A lot of the time they jump the Appalachians and redevelop over the Piedmont (I.E. Lynchburg/Danville area) which in turn leaves me with not much in the way of storms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In other news, the sky is blue and water is wet

I love those guys but they are more optimistic than anyone when it comes to storms. Maybe because there have been so many anomalous events up there the last few years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm on phone so haven't looked but one worry is mixing out.. So good to see that.

Seeing you optimistic for events is always a good thing. I'd like to think you're one of the more balanced people around here. I'm pretty confident somebody pretty close in to DC will get a good gust or two when the line comes through. I don't think this is an event where we wait all day and one cell pops and it's a dud. The question is just how intense will that line be.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...