NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 more sun now, winds starting to crank as the LLJ gets mixed down, gusting near 30 mph at the coast now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NE MD/NRN DE ACROSS ERN PA...NJ...ERN NY...AND WRN NEW ENGLAND... ..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE CAROLINAS... ..NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD THIS MORNING AND THEN NEWD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND NEW ENGLAND...AS AN UPSTREAM WAVE DIGS SEWD OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE EJECTING WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF NY/NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. DESPITE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 C/KM...THE OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME SURFACE HEATING IN PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD BREAKS WILL SUPPORT SOME DESTABILIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG. THE DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE AND EJECTING MIDLEVEL WAVE WILL RESULT IN THE EWD EXPANSION OF A STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NRN MID ATLANTIC/NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INVOF THE HUDSON VALLEY ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SUBSTANTIAL LENGTH /EFFECTIVE BULK WIND DIFFERENCES AOA 50 KT/ AND LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE /EFFECTIVE SRH OF 250-350 M2 PER S2/. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK ALONG THE AXIS OF LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING FROM NRN NJ ACROSS SE NY...WRN CT...AND WRN MA THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES. FARTHER W...THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND STRONG LINEAR ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE LINEAR. STILL...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS IN THE LINE /OR ANY SUSTAINED CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS AFTERNOON/...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS ERN PA/NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LATE EVENING. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER S ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO VA AND THE CAROLINAS. WIND PROFILES WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS AREAS FARTHER TO THE N...BUT SCATTERED DAMAGING GUSTS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Warm sector clearing out a bit now ahead of the cold front. With SPC mesoanalysis indicating decent instability parameters already and 40-50kts of effective shear..this could get really interesting over the next few hours. http://www.meteo.psu...A/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 KEWR in rapid scan. Watching those cells train up the turnpike now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 the tor this morning was similar to the bkyln tor a few years ago and the tors associated with Irene, all featured rich tropical moisture warm ssts and dews in the mid 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Bus detours due to flooding reported around Gowanus/South end of Caroll Gardens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 great video...it's like Jacksonville Florida...It's been Florida type weather this past week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Cells quickly firing up over NE NJ. Line of storms appears to be training just east of the GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 15Z MSLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Very deceiving graphic just put up on WABC. Shows all of NYC, NE NJ, LI, SW CT under a tornado warning. Then we wonder why the public doesn't have a clue about the difference between a watch and a warning. The scroll says which counties are warned but the map would indicate the whole area under a watch is in fact under a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Sunny and humid outside. Very soupy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 People seem so shocked at a tornado touchdown in NYC, there were 3 alone in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 They're listing the Breezy point reports as tornadoes now on SPC reports page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Supercell composite of 8 directly over NYC..first time I've seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 80/77, Irene like outside with sun and clouds windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Even these weak 12kft storms that go up appear to have weak circulations almost instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 guys that line in PA is showing some signs of embedded rotation already, wouldnt be surprised to see some warnings issued soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Wow, SBCAPE, lifted index, EHI and supercell composite indices are highest over NYC. Wonder if those insane helicity values over Upstate will propagate southward because if that happens, it would be no surprise if the SPC bumps up tornado probs. to 15% for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 081630 CTZ000-DEZ000-MAZ000-MDZ000-NHZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-VTZ000-090200- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONNECTICUT NORTHERN DELAWARE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MUCH OF NEW JERSEY CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA MUCH OF VERMONT ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUMID AIR MASS NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING PARTS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE FAST MOVING SQUALL LINES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE NEW YORK CITY AREA INTO WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE WINDS...WILL EXIST WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA THAT INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LARGER CITIES... HARTFORD CONNECTICUT... NEWARK NEW JERSEY... ALBANY AND NEW YORK CITY NEW YORK... PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA... AND BURLINGTON VERMONT. STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ..COHEN.. 09/08/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Even these weak 12kft storms that go up appear to have weak circulations almost instantly. low level shear is about as impressive as it gets for these parts, u would think we have a landfalling TC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Even these weak 12kft storms that go up appear to have weak circulations almost instantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 high theta-e air really helping with SBCAPE, warm SSTs def helping us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Major problems on the Throgs Neck THROGS NECK BRIDGE CROSS ISLAND PKWY RAMPS CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS DUE TO OFF PROPERTY FLOODING. EXPECT DELAYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 People seem so shocked at a tornado touchdown in NYC, there were 3 alone in 2010. And there were some in 2006, 2007, 2011 and the LI one earlier this year. Heck, I bet that NYC metro is on par or above with all the metro areas in the Plains during the last 6 years for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 guy sounded drunk, did he even know a tornado was like a 150 feet in front of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Marine layer FTL upton! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 16Z Dew point temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 What about the marine layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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