NYCSuburbs Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 WFUS51 KOKX 081527 TOROKX NYC087-119-081600- /O.NEW.KOKX.TO.W.0007.120908T1527Z-120908T1600Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1127 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL NOON EDT... * AT 1126 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MONSEY... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW CITY...POMONA...HAVERSTRAW...PEEKSKILL AND YORKTOWN HEIGHTS I don't remember severe storms in the forecast for the morning... sometimes it seems the biggest severe storms happen during the time they're not expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The models did have this stuff forming in the morning, but it was tough to tell how intense they would be. These probably will have the best environment during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I wonder if 18Z soundings are going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 http://gothamist.com...rts.php#photo-5 "National Weather Service warns that the thunderstorm passing over Breezy Point could turn into a tornado. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 just watching the clouds, the amount of low level shear is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 SCP/STP is actually pretty decent considering time of day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 SPC call of a 10% outlined tornado probabilities for our area was a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Pretty much perfect clearing here. Would be really nice to see the radar light up in SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Quick question wont the subsidence left behing from these storms hinder the storms forming later on this evening from nyc on east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Strong wording from the SPC boys THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN WW 634 ALONG A THIN FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY IN SWRN NY. ALONG WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LINE IN WRN PA AND WV...THIS QLCS SHOULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT REACHES THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NRN VA TO CNTRL NY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED. A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED FOR WFO BTV/ALY/BGM AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS EXPECTED FOR CTP/LWX/PHI. DISCUSSION...A NARROW BUT LONG BAND OF ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY WITHOUT CG DETECTED LIGHTNING EXTENDED FROM SWRN NY TO ERN KY AS OF 1530Z...ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. AN 80-100 MILE GAP REMAINS BETWEEN THIS AND THE LEADING EDGE OF MORE ROBUST SURFACE HEATING WHERE 15Z TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN THROUGH THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. AS THE FRONT MERGES WITH THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED. LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST WITH NRN EXTENT...WHILE STRONGER HEATING WITH SRN EXTENT SHOULD PROMOTE RELATIVELY GREATER BUOYANCY. THIS SETUP APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE FOR THE ADVERTISED POTENTIAL OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND EVENTS. A FEW EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR PROBABLE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 That August tornado that developed south of Fire Island and came ashore had similarly high SST's and dewpoints. That day the dewpoint was around 75 the same as the ocean temp. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Quick question wont the subsidence left behing from these storms hinder the storms forming later on this evening from nyc on east? the environment right now is the best its going to be all day in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 seeing a lot of scud photos from NYC, but a few that do indicate either one or two tornadoes have touched down, and they may have been over water as waterspouts as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Pretty much perfect clearing here. Would be really nice to see the radar light up in SNJ It's trying to do so, latest radar shows small storms are popping up over southern NJ. The HRRR keeps scattered storms in the area until the line comes through later tonight. Obviously we have yet to see how the squall line evolves later tonight, and I'm not underplaying it at all as the parameters are certainly favorable for more severe weather with it later tonight, although I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up as the highlight of the day in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 seeing a lot of scud photos from NYC, but a few that do indicate either one or two tornadoes have touched down, and they may have been over water as waterspouts as well. yup at least 1 or maybe 2 waterspouts came ashore and promted the warnings, very tropical airmass in place with dews in mid 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 seeing a lot of scud photos from NYC, but a few that do indicate either one or two tornadoes have touched down, and they may have been over water as waterspouts as well. looks like today may be more active than the june derecho day. i have a party in new rochelle and gotte be there by 7. should i be good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 1438 UNK FLATBUSH KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY 4064 7395 MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN FLATBUSH. POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. TIME BASED ON RADAR. (OKX) 1458 UNK BREEZY POINT QUEENS NY 4055 7393 STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT SURF SHOP IN BREEZY POINT. REPORTED BY FDNY. TIME BASED ON RADAR. (OKX) 1500 UNK BREEZY POINT QUEENS NY 4056 7393 FDNY REPORTS MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN BREEZY POINT. POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND CARS MOVED. TIME BASED ON RADAR. (OKX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 1438 UNK FLATBUSH KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY 4064 7395 MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN FLATBUSH. POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. TIME BASED ON RADAR. (OKX) 1458 UNK BREEZY POINT QUEENS NY 4055 7393 STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT SURF SHOP IN BREEZY POINT. REPORTED BY FDNY. TIME BASED ON RADAR. (OKX) 1500 UNK BREEZY POINT QUEENS NY 4056 7393 FDNY REPORTS MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN BREEZY POINT. POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND CARS MOVED. TIME BASED ON RADAR. (OKX) same couplet or the two different ones we saw on radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 SPC call of a 10% outlined tornado probabilities for our area was a good call. That was more for later on, I wonder if the environment may be best now for tors believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 1438 UNK FLATBUSH KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY 4064 7395 MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN FLATBUSH. POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. TIME BASED ON RADAR. (OKX) 1458 UNK BREEZY POINT QUEENS NY 4055 7393 STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT SURF SHOP IN BREEZY POINT. REPORTED BY FDNY. TIME BASED ON RADAR. (OKX) 1500 UNK BREEZY POINT QUEENS NY 4056 7393 FDNY REPORTS MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN BREEZY POINT. POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND CARS MOVED. TIME BASED ON RADAR. (OKX) def sounds like tornado damage for sure earthlight. im just eager to see that line forming over PA right now how much force it will have when it gets here. waiting with baited breath my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 that is a healthy looking tornado/waterspout earthlight. what an incredible start to the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 crazy video, I dont know if I would have stayed outside once I saw the waterspout make landfall and rip a roof off / blow a transformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Wow John, great video! Those cells up by Stamford are very supercellular looking. Edit*** just got warned as I typed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 John that video is incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 crazy video, I dont know if I would have stayed outside once I saw the waterspout make landfall and rip a roof off / blow a transformer. You can hear the alert sirens in the background towards the end of the video. That area (Breezy Point) has a volunteer fire department that supplements FDNY that tones out their calls with a siren. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 clear view of Tornado on ground and associated damage at time 2:35-2:50 in that vid (same one earthlight posted) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Almost out of post but tons of trees down near me in Bergen beach. Major fdny response around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Sick video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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