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September 8th/9th Severe Thread


andyhb

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The difference between June and now is that the marine influence is

much less pronounced later in the summer/fall.

We have all seen countless squall lines hit the marine layer in spring and fizzle out.

The solid squall lines (and of course the derecho 9/98) I can remember occurred in the late summer and fall.

I think we do see a solid squall line hold together today at least through western LI.

yes the water temputures are warmer than june that would help, but 98 was a different animal than today. if that squall line hold together till atleast western LI id be shocked!

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SPECIAL MARINE WARNING

ANZ338-081445-

/O.NEW.KOKX.MA.W.0105.120908T1429Z-120908T1445Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1029 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...

LOWER NEW YORK HARBOR...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EDT...

* AT 1027 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT OVER ROCKAWAY

INLET...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 KT.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1034 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

QUEENS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT...

* AT 1033 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SHEEPSHEAD

BAY...OR NEAR FLATBUSH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

CANARSIE...CROWN HEIGHTS...HOWARD BEACH...OZONE PARK...FOREST

HILLS...JAMAICA...LITTLE NECK...CLEARVIEW EXPRESSWAY...

WHITESTONE...JACKSON HEIGHTS...FLUSHING AND BAYSIDE

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Not sure why some are already belly-aching about this.

Even though dBZ values have been very low in the line so far, the cells back in PA/NY have been able to mix down some pretty substantial winds to the surface. Everything looks pretty much on track for now.

We just have to watch these pre-frontal cells for tornado development.

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ACUS11 KWNS 081440

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 081439

CTZ000-NYZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-081645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0939 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY...SWRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081439Z - 081645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD

EVOLVE OUT OF A NARROW BAND OF TSTMS INVOF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO.

THE RISK FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL INCREASE WITH

ATTENDANT TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS.

DISCUSSION...A FEW CELLS WITHIN A NARROW BAND OF TSTMS IN THE

TRI-STATE AREA HAVE EXHIBITED TRANSIENT/WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATION

DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FORCED ALONG

THE LEADING EDGE OF ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION.

ALTHOUGH 0-1 KM SHEAR WAS ONLY AROUND 15-20 KT PER OKX/DIX VWP

DATA...THIS SHOULD COMPARATIVELY STRENGTHEN AS THE ACTIVITY EVOLVES

NWD THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY. IN

CONJUNCTION WITH GRADUAL SURFACE HEATING AMIDST UPPER 60S TO LOWER

70S SURFACE DEW POINTS...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY SHOULD EXIST FOR

ROTATING UPDRAFTS TO BECOME SUSTAINED FOR LONGER DURATION AND LIKELY

INTENSIFY...WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 09/08/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

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