bluewave Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The area of storms over Western PA is developing faster than the 6z NAM indicated. We'll have to monitor this as an earlier arrival of the line would bring the storms in with more instability available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 hoping this all just falls apart as I am going to the Rutgers football game and do not want any problems the radar out west would seem to indicate that the line is racing towards us and does not look as intense or ominious as it did last night...any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The area of storms over Western PA is developing faster than the 6z NAM indicated. We'll have to monitor this as an earlier arrival of the line would bring the storms in with more instability available. There is convection popping over Southern NJ too now. We'll just see how this comes together today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 There is convection popping over Southern NJ too now. We'll just see how this comes together today. as stated earlier, areas northwest of nyc and up north stand the best chance of seeing severe weather. coastal areas wil likely see the storms weaken well below severe criteria. i highly doubt us coastal folks will see very much in the way of thunderstorms period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 There is convection popping over Southern NJ too now. We'll just see how this comes together today. heading north - northeast should be in the NYC metro area in another hour or so http://www.wundergro...ls=1&rainsnow=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 12Z KOKX sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Looking like I am in the best area today here in NW jersey. With NFL in full swing tomorrow, this is one time I hope we don't get hit with power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I am still really shocked at SPC for going MOD for NYC, LI, and SNE. I have never seen a greater disconect between Upton and SPC. Upton has no mention of severe today at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 12Z MSLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I am still really shocked at SPC for going MOD for NYC, LI, and SNE. I have never seen a greater disconect between Upton and SPC. Upton has no mention of severe today at all. Upton just has heavy rain for the area with a chance of thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 id be shocked if the island saw any kind of severe weather today. upton i think has the right idea with some heavy rain/thunderstorms. i see no reason for 45% risk for half of long island as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Hey, do you guys think Long Island has a chance at severe storms today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Not sure where this talk of NWS Upton being ho-hum about the potential This is an excerpt from their update from 90 minutes ago A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ADVECT PLENTY OF MOIST AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE SFC. WITH COOLING ALOFT...AVAILABLE CAPE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NAM MORE ROBUST WITH FORECAST CAPE VALUES...MODERATE TO STRONG...AS COMPARED TO GFS. DO EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE MAIN ACTIVITY TO WATCH WILL BE WITH A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NW OF NYC METRO...COULD RESULT IN A FEW ROTATING DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF AND WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LINE APPROACHES. THIS DUE TO STRONG WINDS ALOFT...PLENTY OF SHEAR BUT MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH MOST OF THE COLUMN. Seems pretty strongly worded to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 12Z dew point temperatures. There are a few erroneous observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Surprised this isn't being discussed more. SPC has a moderate risk....45% hatched wind probs.... 10% tornado probs... 15% hail probs... these probs encompass a lot of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Not sure where this talk of NWS Upton being ho-hum about the potential This is an excerpt from their update from 90 minutes ago Seems pretty strongly worded to me. In the grids as most of the public isnt reading the forecat discussion. Today A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Breezy, with a south wind 14 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between midnight and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Low around 65. Southwest wind 10 to 18 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Not sure where this talk of NWS Upton being ho-hum about the potential This is an excerpt from their update from 90 minutes ago Seems pretty strongly worded to me. your right it is, but as you being a red tagger should understand that severe weather probabilities signifigantly drop off as you advance from west of the nyc points east. historically storms have a tough time holding together moving across the island, save for maybe western nassau and the north shore. uptons discussion is spot on stating the potential but gotta say for the most part this threat is for west of the coastal areas as of now i think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 In the grids as most of the public isnt reading the forecat discussion. Today A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Breezy, with a south wind 14 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight Showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between midnight and 3am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3am. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and heavy rain. Low around 65. Southwest wind 10 to 18 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Thankfully these forums aren't geared to most of the public but more so to people who have at least a little weather knowledge. That discussion wasn't over the top by any means. and their grid forecast has gusty winds in it as it is, which is a mention of severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 your right it is, but as you being a red tagger should understand that severe weather probabilities signifigantly drop off as you advance from west of the nyc points east. historically storms have a tough time holding together moving across the island, save for maybe western nassau and the north shore. uptons discussion is spot on stating the potential but gotta say for the most part this threat is for west of the coastal areas as of now i think Drop off some sure, not nearly to the magnitude some are mentioning, especially if things are progressing quicker than expected, which looks to be the case currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 A member of the public sees "gusty winds" and they think it may blow their hat off or dress up. If I didn't know anything about weather and read that before I went to Aunt Virginia's barbecue severe weather potential would be the last thing on my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 stebo, guess were gonna have to see where the severe parameters line up as the storms advance east. developing quicker will certainly help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 A member of the public sees "gusty winds" and they think it may blow their hat off or dress up. If I didn't know anything about weather and read that before I went to Aunt Virginia's barbecue severe weather potential would be the last thing on my mind. i think some are gun shy especially after the derecho bust for the eastern areas in june. SPC's forecast was spot on until it got nyc east. just tough to see this being a more legit threat than that. yea we should take this threat seriously still. i mean SPC has some pretty damn good mets working for them and have a high regard for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Just had a downpour here in Holmdel.....this area has pick up alot of rain this week....looks like more coming...waiting in truck to go back to work. Are obs going here for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Downdraft CAPE (dcape) on the morning okx sounding indicates the potential for strong winds with any storm that develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 rain moving into the area now, not what you want to see for severe later in the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Downpour at the moment ..sun is still out though..should nbe brief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 rain moving into the area now, not what you want to see for severe later in the day Models had this, and could also set boundaries down for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 rain moving into the area now, not what you want to see for severe later in the day It's connected to a pseudo warm front. It should further destabilize once it moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 i think some are gun shy especially after the derecho bust for the eastern areas in june. SPC's forecast was spot on until it got nyc east. just tough to see this being a more legit threat than that. yea we should take this threat seriously still. i mean SPC has some pretty damn good mets working for them and have a high regard for them The difference between June and now is that the marine influence is much less pronounced later in the summer/fall. We have all seen countless squall lines hit the marine layer in spring and fizzle out. The solid squall lines (and of course the derecho 9/98) I can remember occurred in the late summer and fall. I think we do see a solid squall line hold together today at least through western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Thunderstorms here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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