blizzardof09 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Looks like Upton thinks the coast won't get many storms due to the marine layer... Are you guys thinking the squall line weakens alot as it approaches the coast.... this always happens it is nothing new at all. upton is safe in saying that, the marine layer always kills storms nyc on east. very rarely do we get storms to move from inland across the island. but who knows were gonna have to wait till tommorow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I think it might be a bit of a bad idea to rest everything on the marine layer. i dont think so being that id say 80% of the storms moving from inland seem to always die out or lose most of there punch one they get from the queens/nassau border on east. upton cant go wrong mentioning that being that it happens much more than not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 KEWR NAM BUFKIT forecast sounding for 00Z September 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 i dont think so being that id say 80% of the storms moving from inland seem to always die out or lose most of there punch one they get from the queens/nassau border on east. upton cant go wrong mentioning that being that it happens much more than not This late in the season they usually hold together very well, some of the worst severe weather for the coastal areas has been in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I've never seen 45 percent hatched for nyc by spc and yet no mention of severe weather in the grids out of upton. Upton, as usual will mention severe in their grids AFTER the storms begin to fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 0z NAM doesnt look good east of NYC, line collapses pretty quickly as instablity wanes and dynamics lift north...certanitly doesn't look as threatening as earlier model runs. Even in NJ instability never really gets above 1k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 0z NAM doesnt look good east of NYC, line collapses pretty quickly as instablity wanes and dynamics lift north...certanitly doesn't look as threatening as earlier model runs. Even in NJ instability never really gets above 1k. The RAP is beginning to get in range and it says otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Also...KSWF at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 There are some cells on this model run ahead of the squall line for tomorrow afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 0z NAM doesnt look good east of NYC, line collapses pretty quickly as instablity wanes and dynamics lift north...certanitly doesn't look as threatening as earlier model runs. Even in NJ instability never really gets above 1k. East of NYC was never the highest risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 0z NAM doesnt look good east of NYC, line collapses pretty quickly as instablity wanes and dynamics lift north...certanitly doesn't look as threatening as earlier model runs. Even in NJ instability never really gets above 1k. Other than the rare, insane Labor Day 1998 type event or training heavy rain event like last August a week before Irene, severe events are almost guaranteed to fail east of NYC near the shores. I very rarely follow severe threats/threads for that reason. Bring on winter, which can't be as bad as last winter at least, hopefully. 99% of the time, severe weather is for NJ, interior areas, and NYC, as well as sometimes the North Shore. The marine layer dominates our weather here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The waters are much warmer this time of year, though, so the marine layer won't be as stifling. But I do agree that it is a concern for areas east of NYC, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Latest runs of the RAP look to have a substantial triple point threat up in Quebec/Northern NY/New England, where it is pooling instability along with very impressive low level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Cape strugles to get over 1k tomorrow afternoon, we had much better instability today as per the NAM, its even worse on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The latest 0z SPC WRF has the squall line falling apart just as it gets to NYC, with Long Island and most of CT barely receiving anything. It's clear that the best risk of severe weather will be to the north and west of the city, the question is how they make it into Long Island/CT. I'm not sure if the line entirely collapses as the WRF shows although I would expect to see weakening once the line gets east of NYC, especially with the marine layer being a concern as well as considering that timing is also less favorable further east with the line likely coming through after at least 8-10 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 For safety's sake, I hope we don't see a repeat of September 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Cape strugles to get over 1k tomorrow afternoon, we had much better instability today as per the NAM, its even worse on the GFS I do agree that the SPC should take out the eastern portion of the mod risk, but this still looks great for areas west of NYC, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I do agree that the SPC should take out the eastern portion of the mod risk, but this still looks great for areas west of NYC, IMO. its out and basically unchanged, not sure what they are looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 its out and basically unchanged, not sure what they are looking at :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 10% tornado risk issued for N NJ into E NY and western MA/CT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 KEWR RAP BUFKIT sounding for 22Z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Cape strugles to get over 1k tomorrow afternoon, we had much better instability today as per the NAM, its even worse on the GFS Dynamics will compensate for the modest instability, though I am seeing 1250-2000 J/Kg for CAPE values. The best stuff obviously is West of NYC but I don't think NYC is out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination. I agree with their outlook they have posted. You don't always need 4000-5000 J/Kg to get substantial severe weather especially in a good dynamic atmosphere. The areas I would be watching the most are West and Northwest of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 6Z Dew point temperatures, MSLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 6Z Dew point temperatures, MSLP If there was a way to have this centered on the NE it might be a good tool to help out, as it stands the numbers are quite tiny to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 If there was a way to have this centered on the NE it might be a good tool to help out, as it stands the numbers are quite tiny to read. There are a couple of erroneous Canadian observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Dynamics will compensate for the modest instability, though I am seeing 1250-2000 J/Kg for CAPE values. The best stuff obviously is West of NYC but I don't think NYC is out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination. I agree with their outlook they have posted. You don't always need 4000-5000 J/Kg to get substantial severe weather especially in a good dynamic atmosphere. The areas I would be watching the most are West and Northwest of NYC. I agree with what you are seeing for cape. The question than becomes the shear values, 0-1 km shear is substantial, say around 20knts, with 1-6km shear around 40-45knts. 0-1 helicity values at 150-200, all for NYC, with higher amounts just to the west and nw. Don't get locked into cape only. I must admit, I don't know much about the marine layer, I hope it protects NYC from naders. Good luck out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Lee Goldberg's Futurecast radar from 11 PM tonight showed the line weakening before it reached NYC tomorrow evening. His Futurecast was correct for the July 26 "derecho" that reached us on that moderate risk day. I hope his Futurecast is wrong in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 My latest detailed thoughts: http://www.nymetroweather.com/2012/09/08/potential-for-widespread-severe-storms-today/#more-536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 You can sense the extreme bearishness in today's event in Upton's morning HWO that only highlights the threat in only two lines of text saying "gusty winds and heavy rain is possible." Translation to your average Joe who have not looked at SPC's moderate risk outlook: Watered-down and run-of-the-mill weak t-storms with perhaps winds gusting up to 30 MPH. There is absolutely no mention of possible isolated tornadoes, significant damaging winds, large hail or lightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The 6z NAM weakens the squall line over NJ. It has the cold front and LLJ coming out, well ahead of the upper-level support. Subsidence behind the front and LLJ, causes the convection to fall apart. Not saying it's correct. But it's something to watch. Even if the line weakens, there could still be the some gusty winds, with the LLJ, out of ahead of it. If the NAM bufkit is correct about the 50-55kt LLJ, we could see wind gusts as high 45mph, especially over south shore of LI, this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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