NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The shortwave and best forcing ended up hundreds of miles farther north than forecast at +24 hours on last nights 00z NAM. Check out the comparison of these two images below. NAM 6 hr forecast: http://i.imgur.com/8JSQu.gif NAM 24 hr forecast (last night): http://i.imgur.com/kDZT5.gif Doug and I were talking about this trend last night in the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 EF1 in Canarsie confirmed with 110mph winds http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Not a drop here in Suffolk Co. but it's been breezy/windy all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Looks like something is starting to try to develop over Western Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 TCU to my west. I might get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Now getting some moderate rain. Winds below 30 mph. No thunder/lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Now getting some moderate rain. Winds below 30 mph. No thunder/lightning. drenching rain here floral park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Absolutely agree...irene takes the cake for me. The winds were unbelievable and driving down rt 1 in pitch black watching street signs sway is a weenie dream.... The 5 inches of snow we got it october was impressive....could have been worse if it did not stop snowing that was epic too. I recall watching the models for 5 days straight. We were expecting not much, but we had hopes in the low lands. we got the rare dynamic cooling. I remember driving to the Walmart on rt 27 near Metuchen and saw an old co-worker at my old job and we shared talk of what was going on etc. Wind driven snow falling at Walmart will be another cherished event. In reality, I just never felt comfortable calling Edison home. I needed to be in NW NJ. Next stop I want is green mountain coffee in VT or that water company in Maine if they call me Highland Lakes was only location I wanted. I checked out specs in Newton, green, twp, montague twp, wantage twp, but could not find a home that my wife wanted.I looked at building in in Frankford twp but got denied permits due to land regulations near stokes forest. I needed a 5 bedroom septic, they only agreed to a 3 on a 2 acre plot. WTF Highland Lakes took a lot of regulation to build a home due to BS politics. The housing supply in HL is a little odd. you have weird ugly homes and homes that are well just gut jobs. My realtor pulled a rabit off a guy that had 3 double lots, and i bought 2 double lots. 1 lot for a weenie left. any takers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I believe the tornado back in August that developed just south of Fire Island was the first one that I can remember moving in off the ocean. It's really remarkable to have another so soon after. Both days featured dewpoints and ocean temperatures around 75 degrees. Most of our other tornadoes like the Lynbrook back in 98 formed over land. We had a tornado warned cell move ashore back in October 2007, but there was no tornado reported along the South Shore. There was a decent couplet south of LI that weakened when it came ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Awesome shelf cloud came through Nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 EF0 confirmed for Queens? If true it's the largest/thickest EF0 I've ever seen (unless it was the EF1 I saw). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARyan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 EF0 confirmed for Queens? EF0- Breezy EF1- Carnarsie If true it's the largest/thickest EF0 I've ever seen (unless it was the EF1 I saw). width =/= strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 EF0- Breezy EF1- Carnarsie width =/= strength I know, it's just that a lot of EF0's tend to look anemic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The shortwave and best forcing ended up hundreds of miles farther north than forecast at +24 hours on last nights 00z NAM. Check out the comparison of these two images below. NAM 6 hr forecast: http://i.imgur.com/8JSQu.gif NAM 24 hr forecast (last night): http://i.imgur.com/kDZT5.gif I talked about this yesterday. The s/w kicked north hence why upstate ny and pa would do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Doug and I were talking about this trend last night in the guidance Yup, we did. It was definitely a concern and why we thought areas east of NYC would not do well. I was still hoping there would be enough large scale ascent from the trough, but there was actually more ascent earlier in the day when the shortwave and vort max were at our latitude. Brooklyn and Queens got a tornado and they are east of NYC, though in the earlier hours, being just east of NYC was not a hindrance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 the kicker s/w screwed it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Which also happened in September. I'm convinced this is the only month when Brooklyn is capable of getting severe storms People seem so shocked at a tornado touchdown in NYC, there were 3 alone in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Which also happened in September. I'm convinced this is the only month when Brooklyn is capable of getting severe storms Brooklyn's largest tornado came on August 8th, 2007...It came within a mile of my old house... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooklyn_tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 The 00Z sounding went up right before the wind shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 I believe the tornado back in August that developed just south of Fire Island was the first one that I can remember moving in off the ocean. It's really remarkable to have another so soon after. Both days featured dewpoints and ocean temperatures around 75 degrees. Most of our other tornadoes like the Lynbrook back in 98 formed over land. We had a tornado warned cell move ashore back in October 2007, but there was no tornado reported along the South Shore. There was a decent couplet south of LI that weakened when it came ashore. I saw that 2007 storm from the lb boardwalk. There was definitely rotation in the wind over the ocean south of Pacific (you could see the white caps going in different directions) but it lifted once it got to the beach so a water spout esk event did occur. Today's shelf cloud at Jones Beach was incredible (I have great pics on my phone) but the wind was far stronger before the squall line. (gusts around 40 right on the beach) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 wow..what a cool breeze tonight after the front..very refreshing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 The shortwave and best forcing ended up hundreds of miles farther north than forecast at +24 hours on last nights 00z NAM. Check out the comparison of these two images below. NAM 6 hr forecast: http://i.imgur.com/8JSQu.gif NAM 24 hr forecast (last night): http://i.imgur.com/kDZT5.gif And DC somehow got hit worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Remember that. Late season storms are the best, the rest tend to fizzle out. Brooklyn's largest tornado came on August 8th, 2007...It came within a mile of my old house... http://en.wikipedia....rooklyn_tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 wow..what a cool breeze tonight after the front..very refreshing!! This weather is fantastic. Had heavy rain in the evening hours. No thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 I personally believe that the breezy point tornado had winds closer to 100mph rather then 70mph based both on the video and actual damage. Being directly on the water the site has experienced winds in the 70mph range on multiple occasions in the last 30 years. Gloria 85, December 92 noreaster, 98 derecho, 2010 March noreaster and Irene to name a few. Did those events rip the roofs off bungalows and send them flying hundreds of feet? I would think not. EF1 in Breezy Point today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 And DC somehow got hit worse. DC had better instability and better ML Lapse rates. Our instability wasn't terrible and our surface based CAPE was actually pretty good. However, it wasn't enough to compensate for our crappy ML Lapse rates once we lost our lift from the shortwave escaping. DC's instability, however, was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 I personally believe that the breezy point tornado had winds closer to 100mph rather then 70mph based both on the video and actual damage. Being directly on the water the site has experienced winds in the 70mph range on multiple occasions in the last 30 years. Gloria 85, December 92 noreaster, 98 derecho, 2010 March noreaster and Irene to name a few. Did those events rip the roofs off bungalows and send them flying hundreds of feet? I would think not. EF2 in Breezy Point today... You are essentially correct. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 This was from the same cell as the Breezy Point tornado, just 7 minutes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 You are essentially correct. http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1 This was from the same cell as the Breezy Point tornado, just 7 minutes later. I meant and edited to EF1 in Breezy Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Holy crap, I was at Jones Beach too for that shelf cloud. It was nuts. Have so many pics. I was at field 4. I saw that 2007 storm from the lb boardwalk. There was definitely rotation in the wind over the ocean south of Pacific (you could see the white caps going in different directions) but it lifted once it got to the beach so a water spout esk event did occur. Today's shelf cloud at Jones Beach was incredible (I have great pics on my phone) but the wind was far stronger before the squall line. (gusts around 40 right on the beach) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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