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September 8th/9th Severe Thread


andyhb

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The shortwave and best forcing ended up hundreds of miles farther north than forecast at +24 hours on last nights 00z NAM. Check out the comparison of these two images below.

NAM 6 hr forecast: http://i.imgur.com/8JSQu.gif

NAM 24 hr forecast (last night): http://i.imgur.com/kDZT5.gif

Doug and I were talking about this trend last night in the guidance

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Absolutely agree...irene takes the cake for me. The winds were unbelievable and driving down rt 1 in pitch black watching street signs sway is a weenie dream....

The 5 inches of snow we got it october was impressive....could have been worse if it did not stop snowing

that was epic too. I recall watching the models for 5 days straight. We were expecting not much, but we had hopes in the low lands.

we got the rare dynamic cooling. I remember driving to the Walmart on rt 27 near Metuchen and saw an old co-worker at my old job and we shared talk of what was going on etc.

Wind driven snow falling at Walmart will be another cherished event.

In reality, I just never felt comfortable calling Edison home. I needed to be in NW NJ.

Next stop I want is green mountain coffee in VT or that water company in Maine if they call me :cry:

Highland Lakes was only location I wanted. I checked out specs in Newton, green, twp, montague twp, wantage twp, but could not find a home that my wife wanted.I looked at building in in Frankford twp but got denied permits due to land regulations near stokes forest. I needed a 5 bedroom septic, they only agreed to a 3 on a 2 acre plot. WTF

Highland Lakes took a lot of regulation to build a home due to BS politics. The housing supply in HL is a little odd. you have weird ugly homes and homes that are well just gut jobs.

My realtor pulled a rabit off a guy that had 3 double lots, and i bought 2 double lots. 1 lot for a weenie left. any takers

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I believe the tornado back in August that developed just south of Fire Island was the first one that I can remember

moving in off the ocean. It's really remarkable to have another so soon after. Both days featured dewpoints

and ocean temperatures around 75 degrees. Most of our other tornadoes like the Lynbrook back in 98

formed over land. We had a tornado warned cell move ashore back in October 2007, but there was no

tornado reported along the South Shore. There was a decent couplet south of LI that weakened when

it came ashore.

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The shortwave and best forcing ended up hundreds of miles farther north than forecast at +24 hours on last nights 00z NAM. Check out the comparison of these two images below.

NAM 6 hr forecast: http://i.imgur.com/8JSQu.gif

NAM 24 hr forecast (last night): http://i.imgur.com/kDZT5.gif

I talked about this yesterday. The s/w kicked north hence why upstate ny and pa would do better.

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Doug and I were talking about this trend last night in the guidance

Yup, we did. It was definitely a concern and why we thought areas east of NYC would not do well. I was still hoping there would be enough large scale ascent from the trough, but there was actually more ascent earlier in the day when the shortwave and vort max were at our latitude.

Brooklyn and Queens got a tornado and they are east of NYC, though in the earlier hours, being just east of NYC was not a hindrance.

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I believe the tornado back in August that developed just south of Fire Island was the first one that I can remember

moving in off the ocean. It's really remarkable to have another so soon after. Both days featured dewpoints

and ocean temperatures around 75 degrees. Most of our other tornadoes like the Lynbrook back in 98

formed over land. We had a tornado warned cell move ashore back in October 2007, but there was no

tornado reported along the South Shore. There was a decent couplet south of LI that weakened when

it came ashore.

I saw that 2007 storm from the lb boardwalk. There was definitely rotation in the wind over the ocean south of Pacific (you could see the white caps going in different directions) but it lifted once it got to the beach so a water spout esk event did occur.

Today's shelf cloud at Jones Beach was incredible (I have great pics on my phone) but the wind was far stronger before the squall line. (gusts around 40 right on the beach)

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I personally believe that the breezy point tornado had winds closer to 100mph rather then 70mph based both on the video and actual damage. Being directly on the water the site has experienced winds in the 70mph range on multiple occasions in the last 30 years. Gloria 85, December 92 noreaster, 98 derecho, 2010 March noreaster and Irene to name a few. Did those events rip the roofs off bungalows and send them flying hundreds of feet? I would think not. EF1 in Breezy Point today...

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And DC somehow got hit worse.

DC had better instability and better ML Lapse rates. Our instability wasn't terrible and our surface based CAPE was actually pretty good. However, it wasn't enough to compensate for our crappy ML Lapse rates once we lost our lift from the shortwave escaping.

DC's instability, however, was.

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I personally believe that the breezy point tornado had winds closer to 100mph rather then 70mph based both on the video and actual damage. Being directly on the water the site has experienced winds in the 70mph range on multiple occasions in the last 30 years. Gloria 85, December 92 noreaster, 98 derecho, 2010 March noreaster and Irene to name a few. Did those events rip the roofs off bungalows and send them flying hundreds of feet? I would think not. EF2 in Breezy Point today...

You are essentially correct.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

This was from the same cell as the Breezy Point tornado, just 7 minutes later.

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Holy crap, I was at Jones Beach too for that shelf cloud. It was nuts. Have so many pics. I was at field 4.

I saw that 2007 storm from the lb boardwalk. There was definitely rotation in the wind over the ocean south of Pacific (you could see the white caps going in different directions) but it lifted once it got to the beach so a water spout esk event did occur.

Today's shelf cloud at Jones Beach was incredible (I have great pics on my phone) but the wind was far stronger before the squall line. (gusts around 40 right on the beach)

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