earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Gust front has thoroughly chocked the inflow here in SE PA. Notice the gust front boundary on radar now being detected as far north as Hunterdon County. I'm going to say NYC and LI's most intense convection occurred this morning, and the strongest impact with this squall line is likely to be NW NJ and immediately NW of NYC. The noticeable outflow is still sotuh of Richmond Co's latitude, though. And the best forcing could still touch off strong convection..which may still mix down the very intense winds aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 2500 j/kg of surface based CAPE over NYC on the new SPC mesoanalysis with 45kts of effective shear overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Yes, and look at the condition of the storms there compared to the storms in Northern NJ. But I just hope that we don't get the southern end of the line with the propagating subsidence moving eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 cape is great, shear is great, just need good forcing. I talked about this last night as the S/W was proged to lift out to the NW fairly quickly bringing the best dynamics to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Unlike the "Derecho" thing back in July, this line actually has updrafts that are strengthening or remaining steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Gust front has thoroughly chocked the inflow here in SE PA. Notice the gust front boundary on radar now being detected as far north as Hunterdon County. I'm going to say NYC and LI's most intense convection occurred this morning, and the strongest impact with this squall line is likely to be NW NJ and immediately NW of NYC. I agree. The line really peeters out south of Flemington, NJ. Extrapolating the movement of this line- it would appear it should go well to the NW of NYC through the western portion of Bergen county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Unlike the "Derecho" thing back in July, this line actually has updrafts that are strengthening or remaining steady. The line is actually maintaining itself further north into NW NJ and SE NY... it looks to be a close one for far NE NJ and NYC. Based on the look of the radar the southern end of the stronger storms seems to be on track to reach NYC or NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 decent looking storms blooming to my west in sussex county. Can hear the the thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 unless the southern end of the line redevelopes, the best storms will be NW of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 unless the southern end of the line redevelopes, the best storms will be NW of NYC strongly agree but still time for some development further south of that main line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Some very underwhelming reports coming out of Western New Jersey now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Its no big deal guys... Heavy rain and 15mph wind lol.. Ive been under heavy echoes for the past 15 mins and only 2 claps of thunder smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Devil Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I am sure it has to due with public events. i believe a person just hit by lighting and died recently in NYC at a baseball game There was a death by lightning yesterday at a High School field in northern NJ. http://www.northjersey.com/demarest/Person_struck_by_lightning_in_Demarest.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pequest Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Ho hum here in Oxford, NJ Warren County with that line. It moved in quick with a good burst of wind, a few minutes of heavy rain and then it was gone. We were hit harder here on Wednesday with a line of storms that moved through. The thunder was insane then with a much heavier period of rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Its no big deal guys... Heavy rain and 15mph wind lol.. Ive been under heavy echoes for the past 15 mins and only 2 claps of thunder smh The reports coming out of this line really don't sound very impressive... this reminds me of late July, obviously the set up was different but the storms also underperformed as soon as they entered NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Some very underwhelming reports coming out of Western New Jersey now as well. secondary line which is closer to the front, and behind the main line looks like it's trying to develop. Will be interesting to see if the main line starts fizzling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I thought and posted that this morning was probably the main event, looking likely now storms are just dying as they outran the forcing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The ENTIRE northern half of NJ is warned but I doubt there will be more than a couple of severe storm reports in NJ given the poor radar representation. *senses that someone in here will create a second severe storm bust thread very soon* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Yeah anyone south of I78 seems unlikely to see anything close to severe. I would say morris/essex on north will get the worst of that line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Temp down to 65* now.. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Squall lines almost always bust here, but there are some very robust updrafts near Morristown I'll wait to see what happens. Wouldn't be shocked if I only maxed out at 30-35 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Decent rains so far in my back yard with a few claps of moderate thunder. winds have been gusty at times, but nothing of severe quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I didnt see the NWS post this earlier....obvious after the tornado in Breeazy Point....slight bust I'd say lol Tornadoes Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (50%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Mod (30%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (70%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (50%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Low (10%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Low (<5%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Funny, I can clearly see some CU shooting up into the decaying anvil now. Best updrats will probably stay to my north. Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Moderate risks here are usually just eye candy man. Atleast we'll get rain lol I approach every thunderstorm event like a non event now. SPC seems to get overly hyped up with these events in our area. The southern part of that warning box shouldn't even be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 At least there's still a decent looking storm in Morris county headed towards western Bergen: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Models showed us mixing up to 925mb. The winds at the level on SPC meso are up to 20-25kts over NJ and Eastern HV. Might be one reason, why we aren't seeing stronger winds, with the stronger cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Just hoping for a nice shelf cloud at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Joke of a severe warning for nyc and nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Getting a few gusts in the 40mph range now. Looks like a little area of red in somerset county that might clip me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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