NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 there is no marine layer....we are ripping 35 mph wind gusts eaily on the coast with clear bule skies and sun for 4 hours now. this amount of clearing is incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 earthlight what do you think the chances are of this holding together as it reaches the coastal areas? i got my grlevel3 and granalyst going and the base velocity is still there but looks like on reflectivity its weakened slightly I don't see any glaring reasons why it won't stay strong to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I don't see any glaring reasons why it won't stay strong to the coast how are the lapse rates? during the june derecho that was the dagger. the line looks like its really ramping up now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Squall line within an hour away here in SE PA, should be interesting. Gusts to 25-30mph in breezes right now; it shouldn't be much of a problem getting stronger winds to transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 It looks like some pulsing up and down with the intensity of the reflectivity on radar..I wouldn't say the storms are weakening. The SRV data is still impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 how are the lapse rates? during the june derecho that was the dagger. the line looks like its really ramping up now too The mid level lapse rates are pretty putrid...the dagger in the derecho wasn't necessarily the lapse rates but they definitely played a role in it. There was much more of a well established marine layer and CINH during that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Just glancing at different radar tilts on KDIX, the strongest part of the complex seems to be making a beeline for Northeast NJ and NYC at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 its all systems go, you couldnt ask for a better afternoon in respect to clearing and cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The mid level lapse rates are pretty putrid...the dagger in the derecho wasn't necessarily the lapse rates but they definitely played a role in it. There was much more of a well established marine layer and CINH during that event. although the marine layer/CINH is much less pronounced with this event, the lapse rates being not so good is worrisome to me still. we'll have to see how this line deals with that as it moves east. dont why it should weaken much if at all though, everything else is lining up nicely for a nce severe event in a few hours for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Low-level lapse rates of -7*C and good lifted index will compensate for the poor mid-level rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 its all systems go, you couldnt ask for a better afternoon in respect to clearing and cape Given that you were pessimistic before the 7/26 lackluster "derecho" arrived here, I will heed your bullish prospects for this event seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Gusted to 53 mph at Reading PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Here is the special 18Z KOKX sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Here is the special 18Z KOKX sounding. thats one hell of sounding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 tor warning, near washington dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND) COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... HUDSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 515 PM EDT... * AT 345 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 46 MILES WEST OF WEST MILFORD TO 53 MILES WEST OF PLAINFIELD TO 48 MILES WEST OF PLAINFIELD TO 67 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PLAINFIELD...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 33 MILES WEST OF HOPATCONG TO 42 MILES WEST OF SUCCASUNNA-KENVIL TO 32 MILES NORTHWEST OF EWING TO 39 MILES WEST OF EWING...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED ROTATION WITHIN SOME STORMS IN THE LINE. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO COULD DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AS THESE STORMS APPROACH AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Upton has already issued severe t-storm warnings, for all the western counties for the line. Will probably issue for NYC& Western LI soon. Unlike 7/26 this line not coming through near sundown. The 500mb jet is also more favorable position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 storms strugling, not sure why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 storms strugling, not sure why Not really, except maybe around Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Not really, except maybe around Philly. looking at base reflectivity it looks like it, but base velocity its still got lots of punch and just like that rotation indicated south of easton,pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 not a fan of these hour long warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 storms strugling, not sure why probably since the front is still back a bit. Could mean stronger individual supercells though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 not a fan of these hour long warnings Same here. A bit too much lead time and given convection is very erratic/unpredicatable in terms of intensity and motion, I prefer the warnings to be issued as the severe cells enter the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Upton has already issued severe t-storm warnings, for all the western counties for the line. Will probably issue for NYC& Western LI soon. Unlike 7/26 this line not coming through near sundown. The 500mb jet is also more favorable position. The much faster than expected timing could be helping out here a bit - the line wasn't expected to move into NYC until at least 22z-0z or so, there were initially concerns of even slower timing, but it already looks to clear NYC before 7 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Same here. A bit too much lead time and given convection is very erratic/unpredicatable in terms of intensity and motion, I prefer the warnings to be issued as the severe cells enter the county. we saw this with the derecho and we had 20 mph wind and light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Same here. A bit too much lead time and given convection is very erratic/unpredicatable in terms of intensity and motion, I prefer the warnings to be issued as the severe cells enter the county. I am sure it has to due with public events. i believe a person just hit by lighting and died recently in NYC at a baseball game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Most of the reports from the Philly thread are underwhelming with max gusts only to 35 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 New updrafts along an outflow boundary..looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Most of the reports from the Philly thread are underwhelming with max gusts only to 35 MPH. Yes, and look at the condition of the storms there compared to the storms in Northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 we saw this with the derecho and we had 20 mph wind and light rain Gust front has thoroughly chocked the inflow here in SE PA. Notice the gust front boundary on radar now being detected as far north as Hunterdon County. I'm going to say NYC and LI's most intense convection occurred this morning, and the strongest impact with this squall line is likely to be NW NJ and immediately NW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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