Indystorm Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 SPC sticking to their guns in new outlook thinking that storms will refire west of the departing MCS along the cold front. Position is somewhat similar to the forecast for the other day which busted in the subsequent development of storms for late afternoon and evening. Will see what happens as trough is supposed to go from positive to neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 This feels like a rinse and repeat of Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 5:00pm Findlay, OH sounding... 8:00pm Sounding for Findlay... 11:00pm Findlay sounding... 12z NAM is not overly impressive today on the severe threat... the SREF and the RAP have been showing the same thing as the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Well, I expected this to stay more north. I need to move my wager to Option 2 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Well, I expected this to stay more north. I need to move my wager to Option 2 please. It clears out pretty quick once it passes....threat further north around you area is certainly less than well south but not completely zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1910 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...IND...WRN OH...CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 071509Z - 071715Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...ONGOING/LARGELY ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED AS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HEATS AND DESTABILIZES. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND PROBABLE UPSCALE GROWTH ALONG THE LEADING FLANK WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS GENERALLY SURGED S OF THE REMNANT MCS ACROSS CNTRL IL...THE LEADING PORTION OF THE MCS HAS TAKEN ON A MORE N/S-ORIENTATION THAT IS PERPENDICULAR TO THE DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW. AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM AND WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S BASED ON THE 12Z ILN RAOB...ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL BECOME SURFACE-BASED. SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES EXISTS ON WHEN THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR. BUT AMIDST FAVORABLE 0-6 KM SPEED SHEAR AS SAMPLED BY THE WOLCOTT IND PROFILER...CONVECTION WILL INTENSIFY AT SOME POINT AND LIKELY DEVELOP EMBEDDED SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 09/07/2012 ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Welp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Welp. you saw that coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 you saw that coming Yup. I saw the 5% tornado probs when I woke up and got a little excited, but..... well there's your problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Well, we only had sprinkles today IMBY at the far northern end of the morning MCS. Contrast that with torrential rain Wed. morning. Sun coming out now. Maybe....just maybe....."Hope and Change?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Lol. It's like a broken record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Missed the first line completely that came through earlier. Looks like stuff is going up/trying to go up to the west of here in central IL right now. Hoping to avoid a shutout. EDIT: never mind. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 FML... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 classic stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Socked in with clouds/light rain, temp is only 69. Another shot looks possible this evening but I'm not sure how much we will destabilize by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Socked in with clouds/light rain, temp is only 69. Another shot looks possible this evening but I'm not sure how much we will destabilize by then. everything i see still points to a line pushing through your area....lack of destabilization will probably do a number on severe potential though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 everything i see still points to a line pushing through your area....lack of destabilization will probably do a number on severe potential though. That's the scenario I'm leaning toward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On another note, for the die-hards, there's a moderate risk in the northeast tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On another note, for the die-hards, there's a moderate risk in the northeast tomorrow. I laughed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On another note, for the die-hards, there's a moderate risk in the northeast tomorrow. Have a colleague up in Allentown, PA that is wondering how the weather will be for his outside party tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On another note, for the die-hards, there's a moderate risk in the northeast tomorrow. Can't wait to hear how it busts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Socked in with clouds/light rain, temp is only 69. Another shot looks possible this evening but I'm not sure how much we will destabilize by then. Sort of respectable winds with that blob of convection that just went through here, well, based off the meager radar returns. Sort of. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Sort of respectable winds with that blob of convection that just went through here, well, based off the meager radar returns. Sort of. Meh. LAF gusted to 35 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 LAF gusted to 35 mph. Yeah. I'm too easily impressed these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 cell north of Peoria looks aight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Can't wait to hear how it busts And all the premature calls that run around there like the plague. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Thankfully my hopes were never up for this, the region does well but the old Michigan 2-step still applies here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Cell just south of IKK looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Tornado potential seems to be increasing in MO over to southern IL with 75 dew points providing rich fuel. And yes, that IL cell is now svr warned for Newton County Indiana. Getting a good squall line forming in central IL southwestward so guess that will be the predominant mode since shear is not as great down there. But I think the position of the low pressure is farther south than what was initially expected for northern IL and IN in earlier forecasts. Weather can change on a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Tornado warning just to the southeast of here. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 718 PM EDT FRI SEP 7 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... SOUTHERN CLINTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA... NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... SOUTHEASTERN TIPPECANOE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 800 PM EDT * AT 713 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FRANKFORT... COLFAX... THORNTOWN... KIRKLIN... MICHIGANTOWN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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