CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 WRF fail today? Nothing around at all. Yeah I didn't adjust my forecast based on that. Thought it was a little aggressive. Although, had a dying sprinkle here at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 LOL, model sim radar is just that. If there were reds on the 12z run over Albany and now they are oranges..it means nothing...nothing. You have to look much deeper. I never look at that stuff from the gfs or nam... It's basically worthless. If you want to use hires mesoscale models like the mm5 or HRRR for a 6 hour forecast that's fine but using the nam and comparing runs is laughable. Look at a sounding people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I never look at that stuff from the gfs or nam... It's basically worthless. If you want to use hires mesoscale models like the mm5 or HRRR for a 6 hour forecast that's fine but using the nam and comparing runs is laughable. Look at a sounding people! Thoughts on 18z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 SREFs are pretty bullish for ern NY and wrn SNE tomorrow. Almost looks like they are seeing some stuff ahead of the line? Seems a little fast compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 SREFs are pretty bullish for ern NY and wrn SNE tomorrow. Almost looks like they are seeing some stuff ahead of the line? Seems a little fast compared to the other models. Almost looks too fast. Actually, it looks like it is targeting pre frontal stuff. Still has line to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Just by looking the wind profile, all I see is severe storms with a LLJ like that, with 20c dewp. Should be a classic here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 From BTV: THERE REMAINS SEVERAL CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. FIRST IS WIND...INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS LOW DEEPENS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH REGIONAL 12KM NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KTS AT 925MB AND 50-60KT AT 850MB AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY BEYOND MID-MORNING IN ADVANCE OF PRECIPITATION...THEN LOWERING SOME WITH PBL STABILIZATION IN THE VALLEYS ONCE RAIN BEGINS. SECOND CONCERN IS THAT WE COULD SEE AN EMBEDDED NARROW SQUALL LINE WITHIN THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD THAT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHIFT AS FRONT COMES THRU SATURDAY EVENING. STILL A BIT EARLY TO SAY...BUT SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN MODERATE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS (>50 MPH) WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE IF THINGS COME TOGETHER WITH STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Why are we even talking about this in here? i brought it up because it's a very high profile event for this area and a big match is scheduled to start right around when the squall line should be moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Actually have great TCU now and a shwr NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Couple of cells now to my west. Actually looks like the boundary is right overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Yeah I didn't adjust my forecast based on that. Thought it was a little aggressive. Although, had a dying sprinkle here at home. Just put in iso-sct stuff west in morning outlook. Hope it stays there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Couple of cells now to my west. Actually looks like the boundary is right overhead. Just to my north too. Dew is 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Thunder here in burlington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Cell to my nw has awesome structure. Mamatus and all. Now thunder in Braintree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Thunderstorm here in Concord, brief but potent... We had extremely gusty winds (Broke two small branches in the woods behind my house) and even some small hail.... Best five minutes of severe all summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Glad this happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Severe ts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Severe ts Sure looks pretty to the north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Rainbow right to rays house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Sure looks pretty to the north... Awesome! Looks like a bomb going off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Glad this happened. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Just had a bolt come from the side of this to about a mile from me. Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 ? KI surge and good lapse rates. Told clients activity may approach terminal which is a good heads up. That allows for alternate planning in case thunder approaches. That's sort f why I mentioned it yesterday although activity was only sct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Awesome! Looks like a bomb going off. Thanks, best clouds of the year for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 KI surge and good lapse rates. Told clients activity may approach terminal which is a good heads up. That allows for alternate planning in case thunder approaches. That's sort f why I mentioned it yesterday although activity was only sct. Awesome, I thought you were talking about Kevins no call a couple hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Rainbow right to rays house. Prancing and dancing to the lil Leprecaun in Wilmington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Just had a bolt come from the side of this to about a mile from me. Awesome! Damn pretty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Tornadotony..what are your thoughts for SNE tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Is there really anything that would trigger organized convection out ahead of the main line other than the pre-existing outflow boundary? The thing is, though, there might be - there is much more lift this time around than during the 7/26 event since there is a lot more synoptic lift with the huge trough, as HM said. So as long as we can find breaks of sun, perhaps the large-scale ascent can extend eastward enough so that we can actually have much more in the way of organized, discrete convection than we did during the 7/26 event. The instability also greatly lagged the forcing in the 7/26 event as well, so anything discrete either quickly died or got absorbed by the main line. Plus the low-level shear profiles are much more impressive. Quite possible..strong divergent 250 flow from west-southwest above a strong LL S'ly flow. Classic set up for svere storms to develop along and to the left of the LLJ and to the south of the ULJ. Good setup for fall severe in NEUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Can see that Boston-area storm pretty well from central RI. Nice structure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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