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Severe Weather potential 9/8/12


weatherwiz

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Is there really anything that would trigger organized convection out ahead of the main line other than the pre-existing outflow boundary?

The thing is, though, there might be - there is much more lift this time around than during the 7/26 event since there is a lot more synoptic lift with the huge trough, as HM said. So as long as we can find breaks of sun, perhaps the large-scale ascent can extend eastward enough so that we can actually have much more in the way of organized, discrete convection than we did during the 7/26 event. The instability also greatly lagged the forcing in the 7/26 event as well, so anything discrete either quickly died or got absorbed by the main line. Plus the low-level shear profiles are much more impressive.

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Hey guys; it's been a while. I have been dealing with family issues lately but definitely wanted to give the board my two thumbs up for this event. Unlike the last several set ups which were thermodynamically-driven (or dependent), this will be the first true synoptic/kinematic-driven, autumn-like, event.

Notice the mid level dewpoint's (particularly 700mb) standard deviations with the dry punch and the strong moisture advection that takes place tomorrow morning in the low levels. As this cyclone matures, anticipate all advective processes to be a bit stronger than modeled today. The very wrapped up / slower solutions are preferred by NCEP but we must wait to see how the 00z runs do after the convection is established this afternoon and wave amplifies.

I agree 100% with the moderate risk issuance. The only bad news for the forum is that we will get another round of morons from NYC who will complain when they get missed. :axe:

Hope all is well man, thanks for chiming in.

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Glad to hear the family is doing better this week, HM.

I think there might be enough separation from the main line to the crapvection so that some clearing can still be expected in most areas, especially given the dry air in the mid-levels. I'm thinking the crapvection might be relegated to eastern areas that are closer to the ocean. This is why I'm also a bit wary of how far east the mod risk is. But I'm definitely on board otherwise.

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