CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Great view of the PW surge here on the NYC zoomed 4km WRF http://www.weatherbe...t_nyc_mouse.php Yeah all models have this. Good KI boost too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Yeah all models have this. Good KI boost too. The 12 km RPM tomorrow is very meh. Nasty squall line to the west but nothing of note here other than low stratus and showers during the day lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Hi res models actually fire off storms here today. SPC WRF goes nuts, but wonder if it is too aggressive. There's something trying to pop off to the NW..Up near BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I wonder what if anything that surge of moisture does from the south during the day. Some of that may be interesting as it moves in ahead of the line. Yeah that stuff might be interesting. These types of days usually go linear pretty quick tho I think. I guess there is a window for something particularly C PA thru C NY and then east to about the New England border and a line running south of it. No cap might be good if you can get some quick small supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Yeah that stuff might be interesting. These types of days usually go linear pretty quick tho I think. I guess there is a window for something particularly C PA thru C NY and then east to about the New England border and a line running south of it. No cap might be good if you can get some quick small supercells. Yeah anything severe out ahead of the main line will probably be some ugly relatively low topped supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Severe storms expected in southern Quebec tomorrow. We should see damaging winds and possibly some tornadoes if we are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Wonder if they upgrade mod risk to the coast for folks in BOS tomorrow. Possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Wonder if they upgrade mod risk to the coast for folks in BOS tomorrow. Possible lol Kevin Wood The main threat is west of New Eng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 The 12 km RPM tomorrow is very meh. Nasty squall line to the west but nothing of note here other than low stratus and showers during the day lol. Everytime you post what that model shows ..the exact opposite has happened the last month or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Hey guys; it's been a while. I have been dealing with family issues lately but definitely wanted to give the board my two thumbs up for this event. Unlike the last several set ups which were thermodynamically-driven (or dependent), this will be the first true synoptic/kinematic-driven, autumn-like, event. Notice the mid level dewpoint's (particularly 700mb) standard deviations with the dry punch and the strong moisture advection that takes place tomorrow morning in the low levels. As this cyclone matures, anticipate all advective processes to be a bit stronger than modeled today. The very wrapped up / slower solutions are preferred by NCEP but we must wait to see how the 00z runs do after the convection is established this afternoon and wave amplifies. I agree 100% with the moderate risk issuance. The only bad news for the forum is that we will get another round of morons from NYC who will complain when they get missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 The 12 km RPM tomorrow is very meh. Nasty squall line to the west but nothing of note here other than low stratus and showers during the day lol. Yeah tough to say if it's just like 1800ft cumulus cigs (if you know what I mean) or will it have any good oomph to it as the LLJ cranks behind it. I think it will probably have some sct stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Unfortunately I wavered after Kev's incredulity. Lesson learned. Great call from the other day dude. The only one to call it in fact. Why aren't you a red tag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Hey guys; it's been a while. I have been dealing with family issues lately but definitely wanted to give the board my two thumbs up for this event. Unlike the last several set ups which were thermodynamically-driven (or dependent), this will be the first true synoptic/kinematic-driven, autumn-like, event. Notice the mid level dewpoint's (particularly 700mb) standard deviations with the dry punch and the strong moisture advection that takes place tomorrow morning in the low levels. As this cyclone matures, anticipate all advective processes to be a bit stronger than modeled today. The very wrapped up / slower solutions are preferred by NCEP but we must wait to see how the 00z runs do after the convection is established this afternoon and wave amplifies. I agree 100% with the moderate risk issuance. The only bad news for the forum is that we will get another round of morons from NYC who will complain when they get missed. You look to be in a decent spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I'm still a bit surprised how far east they have the MOD. I agree...I expected a MDT on this outlook but it is far more expansive in almost every direction than I imagined it would be. But with such favorable kinematics, one can understand the concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Everytime you post what that model shows ..the exact opposite has happened the last month or 2. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Yeah anything severe out ahead of the main line will probably be some ugly relatively low topped supercells. Do you mean thunderstorms immediately ahead of the squall line or the stuff associated with the moisture advection midday? I am not sure about the severe potential ahead of the main line other than new updrafts that immediately form ahead of the squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I agree...I expected a MDT on this outlook but it is far more expansive in almost every direction than I imagined it would be. But with such favorable kinematics, one can understand the concern. Yeah.. sorta my thoughts as well. The trough and surface explosion are pretty sick. Undoubtedly someone's gonna get rocked. Now to just get it to tail south a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Hey guys; it's been a while. I have been dealing with family issues lately but definitely wanted to give the board my two thumbs up for this event. Unlike the last several set ups which were thermodynamically-driven (or dependent), this will be the first true synoptic/kinematic-driven, autumn-like, event. Notice the mid level dewpoint's (particularly 700mb) standard deviations with the dry punch and the strong moisture advection that takes place tomorrow morning in the low levels. As this cyclone matures, anticipate all advective processes to be a bit stronger than modeled today. The very wrapped up / slower solutions are preferred by NCEP but we must wait to see how the 00z runs do after the convection is established this afternoon and wave amplifies. I agree 100% with the moderate risk issuance. The only bad news for the forum is that we will get another round of morons from NYC who will complain when they get missed. Awesome post! I LOVE these fall setups where we have incredibly strong dynamics and forcing...seeing a 60-70 knot MLJ streak is something to take pretty seriously. Being in the RFQ of a 90-100 kt ULJ streak too will certainly do wonders. Hope all is well with the family! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Do you mean thunderstorms immediately ahead of the squall line or the stuff associated with the moisture advection midday? I am not sure about the severe potential ahead of the main line other than new updrafts that immediately form ahead of the squall. I mean ahead of the squall line. I could see some stuff forming prior to the line across the Catskills and Poconos before being overtaken by the main line. Will have to watch any discrete activity out front... but I don't expect anything from the midday moisture advection. Nice to have you back posting here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I agree...I expected a MDT on this outlook but it is far more expansive in almost every direction than I imagined it would be. But with such favorable kinematics, one can understand the concern. There is a bit of logic to the eastward extent and isn't entirely weather-based. When thinking about verifying, where are you most likely to get a report? Certainly, it will be in the more populated coastal plain corridor (plot population on the convective outlook). If a well developed squall line, entirely based in the synoptics and low CAPE, is moving toward a more populated area but slowly weakening, I am sure there will be a few reports on the eastward extent in this instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Euro is pretty fast. Fropa near HFD by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Wiz takes every rotted limb down report and makes a see text into a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 The euro has some decent Cape out ahead of the front across the CT River Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Wiz takes every rotted limb down report and makes a see text into a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 You look to be in a decent spot. Obviously the timing, severe mode (squall line) and speed will likely prevent any last minute bootleg chase. At this point, I am just hoping I can still make out the shelf cloud at sunset (the right timing can make for pretty colors like purple / red / pink). Awesome post! I LOVE these fall setups where we have incredibly strong dynamics and forcing...seeing a 60-70 knot MLJ streak is something to take pretty seriously. Being in the RFQ of a 90-100 kt ULJ streak too will certainly do wonders. Hope all is well with the family! Thanks. I agree about autumn events. There are several historic events in Sep-Nov with some very famous tornado outbreaks among them. The family is doing better this week, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Euro is pretty fast. Fropa near HFD by 00z. Yeah if that timing happened....I could see western areas involved for sure. This doesn't look like a line racing east to me. I think it's one of those lines marching relatively quickly east with individual cells or segments flying NE and causing the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Obviously the timing, severe mode (squall line) and speed will likely prevent any last minute bootleg chase. At this point, I am just hoping I can still make out the shelf cloud at sunset (the right timing can make for pretty colors like purple / red / pink). Thanks. I agree about autumn events. There are several historic events in Sep-Nov with some very famous tornado outbreaks among them. The family is doing better this week, thanks. Yeah Sep-Nov can have it's share of epic events, especially across PA/NY/NJ area. When I first looked at this setup the first event that came to mind was November 16th, 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I mean ahead of the squall line. I could see some stuff forming prior to the line across the Catskills and Poconos before being overtaken by the main line. Will have to watch any discrete activity out front... but I don't expect anything from the midday moisture advection. Nice to have you back posting here! Thanks... Oh I can see that too about some stuff in NE PA / etc. I hope the midday moisture advection crap is painless for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Obviously the timing, severe mode (squall line) and speed will likely prevent any last minute bootleg chase. At this point, I am just hoping I can still make out the shelf cloud at sunset (the right timing can make for pretty colors like purple / red / pink). Thanks. I agree about autumn events. There are several historic events in Sep-Nov with some very famous tornado outbreaks among them. The family is doing better this week, thanks. Mid/upper 70s for SSTs is not going to hurt our cause witha 40-50 knot southerly LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 i wonder if people at the us open are going to freak out tomorrow when the line arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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