Logan11 Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Duane (a/k/a AkD from the IRC days) had a big tree go down in front of his apartment complex in Silver Spring. His storm pics lookd pretty good on FB. That's true too a lot more spotters. DC area covered in blue but I mainly saw large limbs down.. Some bigger trees did go here and there. But it wasn't nearly on the level of late June (not that anyone was necessarily expecting that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Many on here forecased this event quite well, especially with where the severe would virtually cut off. Forecasting these convective events are just such a challenge...like for today the models were actually off by a quite a bit with the s/w and had it too far south of where it tracked and ended up...that turned out to be a big player and keeping that much more stronger forcing to our west. NAM did very well though with instability forecasts. If we didn't have that inversion just above 700mb I wonder if those supercells would have done better? Still not sure as to why they weren't producing...not just tornadoes but winds...perhaps they were just too shallow to really tap and utilize the strong shear? Do not underestimate the stability cool marine air has. I was in GON all day and it was ripping due south. Rare to see a sustained severe SNE outbreak with those conditions, especially East of the CT river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 You guys got some of the best action. That's not the first time DC pulls something interesting when everyone is focused north. Usually the instability causes you guys to do relatIvely well. This is very true...it seems like they can muster up rather large events with big Capes...even if shear or forcing isn't all that strong. I know we can get some good storms like that as well but it seems that works out much better for them than it does us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 This is very true...it seems like they can muster up rather large events with big Capes...even if shear or forcing isn't all that strong. I know we can get some good storms like that as well but it seems that works out much better for them than it does us. They do not have a pond South of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 Do not underestimate the stability cool marine air has. I was in GON all day and it was ripping due south. Rare to see a sustained severe SNE outbreak with those conditions, especially East of the CT river. We had very good sfc based instability today and there was no low-level inversion in place so I'm not sure if that really had anything to do with it (perhaps it would have down in SE CT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 They do not have a pond South of them. That's true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 We had very good sfc based instability today and there was no low-level inversion in place so I'm not sure if that really had anything to do with it (perhaps it would have down in SE CT). The surface was good this AM before the sustained inflow started stabilizing it and that was right before the best dynamics came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 so much for the warm water temps not weakening the line..this thing fell apart worse than the Red sox once it approached NYC and points east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 You guys got some of the best action. That's not the first time DC pulls something interesting when everyone is focused north. Usually the instability causes you guys to do relatIvely well. Yeah it worked out well. I was very bullish for our area compared to usual. I figured CAPE would be undermodeled. Parts of NE MD got screwed with that first bit of convection helping to stabilize them. The winds were impressive tho it was very much a fall like event down here too. Not a lot of thunder etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 so much for the warm water temps not weakening the line..this thing fell apart worse than the Red sox once it approached NYC and points east.... They didn't weaken the line much at all, IMO. A little role, sure, but there was plenty of low level instability and moisture. It fell apart further east because the forcing was not there. The shortwave escaped to the north pretty quickly. This was a concern that many people had. Since the shortwave escaped to the north pretty quickly, the best forcing was to the north and west. However, once you got to DC, they had even better instability/CAPE/ML lapse rates which helped to compensate for less forcing, something lots of areas in PA, NJ, SE NY and lots of New England were not able to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 The surface was good this AM before the sustained inflow started stabilizing it and that was right before the best dynamics came through. There didn't appear to be any SB CIN on the mesoanalysis page. One thing that happened was the line outran the best mid and upper level support...just became too far removed from the MLJ and ULJ streaks and with ****ty lapse rates and skinny capes convection probably had trouble developing robust updrafts b/c shear was too strong and could have tilted the updrafts over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 so much for the warm water temps not weakening the line..this thing fell apart worse than the Red sox once it approached NYC and points east.... That really wasn't the reason. Losing daytime heating and dynamics will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 You guys need to realize something. If you have lousy lapse rates, you need either large CAPE or extremely good forcing to make the air rise. We had that further west but it became less in the way of mid and upper level forcing as it moved east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 You guys need to realize something. If you have lousy lapse rates, you need either large CAPE or extremely good forcing to make the air rise. We had that further west but it became less in the way of mid and upper level forcing as it moved east. Exactly what I was just thinking. We actually see this quite a bit here...lots of times the storms just outrun that better support b/c it holds back further to the west b/c the s/w energy just tracks too far NW from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 You guys need to realize something. If you have lousy lapse rates, you need either large CAPE or extremely good forcing to make the air rise. We had that further west but it became less in the way of mid and upper level forcing as it moved east. Right. A lot of the model data previously was showing the shortwave further south and east, which would have generated enough large scale ascent to compensate for the bad ML Lapse rates. This is what was exciting - there was a potent trough with autumn like dynamics which generates lots of synoptic lift...something we hadn't had in a while. But the models slowly trended further NW with that shortwave energy. And that was that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 You guys need to realize something. If you have lousy lapse rates, you need either large CAPE or extremely good forcing to make the air rise. We had that further west but it became less in the way of mid and upper level forcing as it moved east. Interesting comment on ECKS FB page by Bill Goodman about a possible serial derecho he tracked from WV through CT to south of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 You guys need to realize something. If you have lousy lapse rates, you need either large CAPE or extremely good forcing to make the air rise. We had that further west but it became less in the way of mid and upper level forcing as it moved east. Exactly! As the s/w pulled away up into Canada we lost the forcing at least down this way, combined with losing daytime heating.....but the hypsters will hype hype away and say those that dont see things panning out are crazy etc. Oh well. Like I said give me a WF early morning deal anyday. These late day squall lines rarely ever work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Decent tree (looked rotted) came down on a garage here on Rte 68. Not much damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 7 leaves appear to have been heavily damaged in last nights squall and one twig was blown off a tree and onto my roof. This has been the year of heavy thunderstorms here near the canal but last night was a major dud. Not that we needed the rain or damage, just as happy it duded out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 so much for the warm water temps not weakening the line..this thing fell apart worse than the Red sox once it approached NYC and points east.... It wasn't so much that. *Loss of daytime heating/sun going down. *Less unstable air (little to do with ocean) *Line moved into an area, western CT/western MA, that had rain/clouds for a good portion of Sat morning/early afternoon. *Models progged this very well. When I put out an outlook late Friday night, I anticipated that severe weather would have a tough time getting beyond extreme western New England. I think, overall, everyone got really hyped up with the initial Tornado Watches and Warnings...it left many disappointed when the rest of the day was relatively quieter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 There was a threat in SNE yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 The weenieing in this thread yesterday was outrageous. It was almost as bad as a 1-3" clipper debacle. I was keeping up to date on my phone for most of the day but it seems like things went as planned. The line ran ahead of the dynamics that lifted to the north and east away from SNE. Coupled with the later timing and the loss of daylight heating we had some issues. Pretty much AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Exactly! As the s/w pulled away up into Canada we lost the forcing at least down this way, combined with losing daytime heating.....but the hypsters will hype hype away and say those that dont see things panning out are crazy etc. Oh well. Like I said give me a WF early morning deal anyday. These late day squall lines rarely ever work out. I just don't understand people's expectations for these things lol. The vast majority of "squall lines" only produce very localized areas of wind damage. That's just the nature of severe convection. Once in a while you get a truly memorable squall line with widespread 50 knot winds. Yesterday was fun watching the (relatively) low topped convection go supercellular well ahead of the main line with that push of warm/moist advection. I thought we'd see some cells out ahead of the main line but didn't think the AM/midday stuff would do it. In retrospect... the time of the year... can help some of these things go surface based quickly especially given the soundings that showed most of the CAPE below the stout inversion at 500 mb. We were lucky we didn't see one or 2 additional touchdowns outside of the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 I don't even think it rained much in taunton. Brief at best. A few gusts as the front blew through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 I just don't understand people's expectations for these things lol. The vast majority of "squall lines" only produce very localized areas of wind damage. That's just the nature of severe convection. Once in a while you get a truly memorable squall line with widespread 50 knot winds. Me either, especially down here. As soon as people see a good looking squall line east of State College, if it doesn't reach the coast producing 60mph winds its a failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 Let's just not have severe threads anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Let's just not have severe threads anymore. Or better yet, not weenie out over a squall line in pa and expect it to do the same in new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 I'm seriously just done posting in here and especially about convection...it's not may fault not everyone here sees trees go down. If someone wants to make a post or thread in the future go right ahead but I will not be apart of it. There was a time when I used to be pissed during convective events if I couldn't post b/c of work but now I really don't care. I just don't find it worth it anymore and the sad part (i guess) is I just don't care anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 I'm seriously just done posting in here and especially about convection...it's not may fault not everyone here sees trees go down. If someone wants to make a post or thread in the future go right ahead but I will not be apart of it. There was a time when I used to be pissed during convective events if I couldn't post b/c of work but now I really don't care. I just don't find it worth it anymore and the sad part (i guess) is I just don't care anymore. You did a nice job yesterday... don't beat yourself up! These kinds of things are fickle... but from a meteorological perspective it was an exciting day with the low topped supercells during the morning and midday followed by a dying (AWT) squall line. I just enjoy watching these things unfold... as you do as well. Most people are IMBY whiners with severe weather lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 I'm seriously just done posting in here and especially about convection...it's not may fault not everyone here sees trees go down. If someone wants to make a post or thread in the future go right ahead but I will not be apart of it. There was a time when I used to be pissed during convective events if I couldn't post b/c of work but now I really don't care. I just don't find it worth it anymore and the sad part (i guess) is I just don't care anymore. You're one of the best convective posters on here, stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.