HoarfrostHubb Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Anytime you have a cranking marine flow off the Atlantic, I do not care what the top 6 feet SSts are the environment is soured for sustained severe. Models showed the best in the HV, not understanding what the angst is, unless you thought KFS nailed it. ABWE (another boring weather "event") At least Leslie is pounding the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Well thank you "svr" for making it so I can open the windows and turn off the AC. Yeah, dropped to 61F pretty quickly IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 SPC is not as good Apps and east (at least north of the Carolinas) as in most other spots. Though I think the main debate is still whether or not the mod risk should have been so far east. Solid event either way. Well I mean it makes sense they wouldn't be. Good call on your side also questioning the east extent of the mod risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 big ol bag of fail here...no wind (other than the breeze all day)some thunder and .15 of rain. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Nice heavy SHRA with OCL LTG TSTM Unimpressive winds.. Sub 40 mph. Rain is LGT now at 9PM TS MOVED E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 It's gonna rain a bit here. Never had my hopes up for much more. It was close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Everything going as expected except for the timing. Event happened a little ahead of schedule. The GFS did a good job with timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Even Mitch and Chrisrotary seemed hesitant and cautious, which seems to be a good rule of thumb for New England SVR. You guys were all over this... time and time again the weenies get put to shame by the red taggers on here The hype in these threads sort of takes on a life of its own, so its good to have some caution flags thrown. This is a very good point. This seems to happen a lot. One person will throw out how excited they about the potential of something (which is fine) but then everyone seems to be able to talk themselves into it. And suddenly everyone is on board for a major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 This is a very good point. This seems to happen a lot. One person will throw out how excited they about the potential of something (which is fine) but then everyone seems to be able to talk themselves into it. And suddenly everyone is on board for a major event. Well, for those of us untrained (and in my case sadly so), the media was hyping this, the SPC seemed gung-ho... I really should have listened to the caution flags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Surprisingly Boston with one if the highest gusts at 42kts. Not home though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Surprisingly Boston with one if the highest gusts at 42kts. Not home though. lol fitting for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 This is a very good point. This seems to happen a lot. One person will throw out how excited they about the potential of something (which is fine) but then everyone seems to be able to talk themselves into it. And suddenly everyone is on board for a major event. We've (particularly someone like gymengineer) discussed this a lot in the MA forum as well. The main place to start is that MOST convective events do not have widespread severe weather. I think any person into weather can figure that out. But, we tend to run toward potential on these forums as a whole... you see it in all conversations... how many times was Isaac ready to RI over the Gulf? This was a pretty impressive event for "fall" in this part of the world. People need to modify their expectations if they're unhappy with the results. It would be nice if conversation could remain more grounded but some people like to imagine that they're going to get crushed all the time so they're going to run to that idea. It's hard to fully emotionally remove yourself from what happens if you like extreme weather I suppose. I think you can see that in local weathercasters from time to time.. biases etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Regardless of hype for me it's always the chase. It's rare to get true severe criteria to verify in this part of New England. The fail remarks are expected. It's ok to get wrapped into the histeria. All is fine and exciting until an F5 blows my (your) house into tiny pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 This is a very good point. This seems to happen a lot. One person will throw out how excited they about the potential of something (which is fine) but then everyone seems to be able to talk themselves into it. And suddenly everyone is on board for a major event. Haha, same thing happens in the winter, which is why we need the red tags to throw caution flags. The hype machine starts going and all the sudden a 3-6" event has turned into a 5-10" event with lollis to 12". Before long, everyone is calling the storm a bust if they don't get double digit snowfalls, because we've all talked each other into believing its the best storm of the season. You get a couple of the posters who normally hype or sensationalize the weather talking about how roads will be impassable, etc (with like 0.5-0.75" QPF haha)... it just takes off from there. To be fair, the media was hyping this up quite a bit...and a tornado in the NYC metro area is still a pretty significant event. However, I think the media sort of had to given what the SPC was showing. You don't want to be the TV station that shrugged off an event that turns out to be a massive tornado outbreak or something. Same with the NWS offices who are probably required to put things like tornadoes in the text because of SPC's forecast, even if they don't believe it'll happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 It's Fall and this was more like a early Fall fropa than Summer. Not even much of any thunder. I'm sure if this had happened with an early August solar angle it would have been more explosive. Dry front season is just about upon on...where you just manage a few showers, etc., until things heat up in November or early December. Scooter it was a non event, not a single rumble of thunder, no wind and barely any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 Yeah such a hyped event...over 200 reports of damaging wind certainly doesn't deserve any attention...along with 2 confirmed tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 0.6" of rain at least Down to 59F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Yeah such a hyped event...over 200 reports of damaging wind certainly doesn't deserve any attention...along with 2 confirmed tornadoes. Put a tornado in the NYc area and it's Armageddon. Was cool to see that stuff tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Reports of 40 kt winds knocking limbs down mean less in this day and age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Put a tornado in the NYc area and it's Armageddon. Was cool to see that stuff tho. 2? Another one in Brooklyn. No surprise the best stuff was this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 2? Another one in Brooklyn. No surprise the best stuff was this AM. Well I was just saying in general. And yeah SREF etc had the best tornado ingredients ahead of the line on modeling. I was a bit skeptical it would be tapped but did note the possbility yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Didn't realize Brooklyn. Pretty cool regarding morning stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Yea Scooter same cell according to OKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Reports of 40 kt winds knocking limbs down mean less in this day and age. That's true too a lot more spotters. DC area covered in blue but I mainly saw large limbs down.. Some bigger trees did go here and there. But it wasn't nearly on the level of late June (not that anyone was necessarily expecting that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 Put a tornado in the NYc area and it's Armageddon. Was cool to see that stuff tho. Today panned out very well....just b/c some people didn't get high winds, see damage, or having anything good they get all upset and consider it a bust or over-hype...there is not one single weather event that happens where you don't have someone complaining. We could get a snowstorm which drops widespread 6-10'' but a few people will only end up with 4'' and they will cry bust and complain. I'm really not sure what else people were expecting today. Sure the idea of the serial derecho didn't work out but that line produced a quite a bit of wind damage in it's journey. i would like to know what was over-hyped...tornado threat? wind threat? There were numerous supercells today which had strong rotation and numerous tornado warnings...virtually the ideas of tornado potential played out very well, it's just the cells didn't spawn them (except for around NYC)...this is really not something you can forecast. Wind threat...over 200 reports of wind damage...that's impressive not only for this time of year but for this area in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Yeah such a hyped event...over 200 reports of damaging wind certainly doesn't deserve any attention...along with 2 confirmed tornadoes. Wiz, this was a very good event and an impressive one for this time of year. It was a fall like system moving into a July like airmass. Doesn't happen to often. The event did verify back to our west. Which is how we all thought it would. But the event did not verify for the majority of us east of where ever the last wind report is as a few of us thought. But as a whole, this was a very very impressive event with a major squall line that stretched from Canada all the way down to Virginia. Definitely something to marvel at. But kudos do have to be given to you Wiz. You identified this event first and outlined the possibility. I don't think you envisioned anything of this magnitude, but you did highlight the chance of thunderstorms for us. So props to you my man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Today panned out very well....just b/c some people didn't get high winds, see damage, or having anything good they get all upset and consider it a bust or over-hype...there is not one single weather event that happens where you don't have someone complaining. We could get a snowstorm which drops widespread 6-10'' but a few people will only end up with 4'' and they will cry bust and complain. I'm really not sure what else people were expecting today. Sure the idea of the serial derecho didn't work out but that line produced a quite a bit of wind damage in it's journey. i would like to know what was over-hyped...tornado threat? wind threat? There were numerous supercells today which had strong rotation and numerous tornado warnings...virtually the ideas of tornado potential played out very well, it's just the cells didn't spawn them (except for around NYC)...this is really not something you can forecast. Wind threat...over 200 reports of wind damage...that's impressive not only for this time of year but for this area in general. I said it was a big event and expected it to be a big event. Any of my "beefs" are small and on the margins of the forecast which was largely good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 Wiz, this was a very good event and an impressive one for this time of year. It was a fall like system moving into a July like airmass. Doesn't happen to often. The event did verify back to our west. Which is how we all thought it would. But the event did not verify for the majority of us east of where ever the last wind report is as a few of us thought. But as a whole, this was a very very impressive event with a major squall line that stretched from Canada all the way down to Virginia. Definitely something to marvel at. But kudos do have to be given to you Wiz. You identified this event first and outlined the possibility. I don't think you envisioned anything of this magnitude, but you did highlight the chance of thunderstorms for us. So props to you my man. Many on here forecased this event quite well, especially with where the severe would virtually cut off. Forecasting these convective events are just such a challenge...like for today the models were actually off by a quite a bit with the s/w and had it too far south of where it tracked and ended up...that turned out to be a big player and keeping that much more stronger forcing to our west. NAM did very well though with instability forecasts. If we didn't have that inversion just above 700mb I wonder if those supercells would have done better? Still not sure as to why they weren't producing...not just tornadoes but winds...perhaps they were just too shallow to really tap and utilize the strong shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 9, 2012 Author Share Posted September 9, 2012 I said it was a big event and expected it to be a big event. Any of my "beefs" are small and on the margins of the forecast which was largely good. I'm just confused with why some are saying bust or over-hype...not upset by it (if my tone made it seem so don't mean too...I'm pretty exhausted and irritable ) perhaps the wording of the outlooks and MCD's/watches made it seem like it would be a bigger deal...there weren't any significant wind reports so perhaps that's what people are referring too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 That's true too a lot more spotters. DC area covered in blue but I mainly saw large limbs down.. Some bigger trees did go here and there. But it wasn't nearly on the level of late June (not that anyone was necessarily expecting that). You guys got some of the best action. That's not the first time DC pulls something interesting when everyone is focused north. Usually the instability causes you guys to do relatIvely well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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