andyhb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 http://www.wxcaster.com/model_skewt.htm This one also works: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbsnd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Hello there 30% hatched risk... DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 AM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH THE NERN STATES... ..SYNOPSIS QUASI-ZONAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED REGIME BY SATURDAY. THE POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO WSWWD THROUGH MT WILL AMPLIFY SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS PROCESS AND LIFT NEWD INTO SRN QUEBEC...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD/SEWD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND GULF COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ..ERN PORTIONS OF OH VALLEY...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH NERN STATES A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. RICH GULF MOISTURE /UPPER 60S TO 70F DEWPOINTS/ NOW RESIDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SRN PORTIONS OF NERN STATES WILL ADVECT THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEPENING SFC LOW. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS WILL MITIGATE INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND AHEAD OF PRE-EXISTING PROGRESSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES. DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC LOW WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND 40+ KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING LEWP/BOWING STRUCTURES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD. DAMAGING WIND AND MAYBE A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE WEAKER WITH SWD EXTENT INTO NC SUGGESTING DOMINANT MULTICELL MODES. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY BE GREATER IN THIS AREA...AND THESE STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 I just saw that :o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 For lack of a better explanation...holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I'm really starting to get optimistic. There are still definitely a few things that can go wrong, however. I posted my thoughts here: http://www.nymetroweather.com/2012/09/07/severe-weather-potential-for-saturday/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Looks really interesting for eastern NY and PA into NJ. Might even extend into western MA and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 There might be some rain out ahead of this feature..maybe a tstm with an instability burst Saturday aftn in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Not a word about it from BOX..Just scattered showers in the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Looks really interesting for eastern NY and PA into NJ. Might even extend into western MA and CT. SPC has just about all of CT in the risk except SE area fro Ginx south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 SPC has just about all of CT in the risk except SE area fro Ginx south Yeah I saw. While it may extend into CT, I favor areas to the west...but it doesn't mean it's limited to that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 The one thing that's kind of meh is the cloud cover and possibly lack of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Yeah I saw. While it may extend into CT, I favor areas to the west...but it doesn't mean it's limited to that area. The best combination of higher instability and shear actually occur across much of CT (according to the NAM) around 21z-0z. Cape values in excess of 2000 J/KG along with 0-3 helicity near 300 m2s2 with 0-1km helicity of around 200-250 m2s2. The potential certainly exists here. How many times before have we seen SPC go from SEE TEXT to 30% hatched? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 The best combination of higher instability and shear actually occur across much of CT (according to the NAM) around 21z-0z. Cape values in excess of 2000 J/KG along with 0-3 helicity near 300 m2s2 with 0-1km helicity of around 200-250 m2s2. The potential certainly exists here. How many times before have we seen SPC go from SEE TEXT to 30% hatched? Yeah maybe. I just favor areas to the west. Better dynamics and daytime heating. Doesn't mean it's confined to that area though. NAM has something causing through at 21z on Saturday from the south. Batch of shwrs and iso thunder it seems. As usual with SNE, just gotta see as we get closer, but I'd rather be west in NY and PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Yeah maybe. I just favor areas to the west. Better dynamics and daytime heating. Doesn't mean it's confined to that area though. NAM has something causing through at 21z on Saturday from the south. Batch of shwrs and iso thunder it seems. As usual with SNE, just gotta see as we get closer, but I'd rather be west in NY and PA. I could see several breaks in cloud cover here. NAM soundings have a decent amount of dry air above 800mb and it's quite moist below it with winds staying SW so dry air shouldn't mix down. Could have some pockets of warming temps aloft though which not only hurts lapse rates but could perhaps be a factor tomorrow...might have some CIN to work with but we'll see. NAM is forecasting temps into the 80's and the NAM is usually the one which tends to overdo cloud cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I could see several breaks in cloud cover here. NAM soundings have a decent amount of dry air above 800mb and it's quite moist below it with winds staying SW so dry air shouldn't mix down. Could have some pockets of warming temps aloft though which not only hurts lapse rates but could perhaps be a factor tomorrow...might have some CIN to work with but we'll see. NAM is forecasting temps into the 80's and the NAM is usually the one which tends to overdo cloud cover. There will be breaks for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 There will be breaks for sure. I also like the fact that Kevin is downplaying it...usually means we get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 torcon index NY central & eastern - 4 thats pretty high for around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I also like the fact that Kevin is downplaying it...usually means we get something. I'm not excited about tomorrow. I would guess theres some renegade stuff out ahead of the main line..that might cause some wet micros here and there..and then we all get excited as the radar to the west looks great and it then weakens as it moves into CT. Hope I'm wrong, but that's how I see it. I certainly wouldn't pin the tail on the donkey that the NAM is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 I'm not excited about tomorrow. I would guess theres some renegade stuff out ahead of the main line..that might cause some wet micros here and there..and then we all get excited as the radar to the west looks great and it then weakens as it moves into CT. Hope I'm wrong, but that's how I see it. I certainly wouldn't pin the tail on the donkey that the NAM is right. It's just all going to depend on the timing...if we can get action to move through between say 21z and 0z that's when the best combination of shear/instability is in place. I could see a couple rounds of storms too actually...stuff out ahead of the front and then a forced line right along the front producing some gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 instability is pretty lame on 6z nam bufkit. the nam might be too slow, though. the system is fully in the US this morning so 12z data should finalize timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 instability is pretty lame on 6z nam bufkit. the nam might be too slow, though. the system is fully in the US this morning so 12z data should finalize timing It's a high shear/low CAPE overall deal I think, unless there is more sun...or you are further west into PA and NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 It's a high shear/low CAPE overall deal I think, unless there is more sun...or you are further west into PA and NY. GFS timing would be better. however, i can't see this upper system not producing a big line that makes it to the coast (double negative, sry) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Sort of bummed I have my brother's stag party tomorrow. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Sort of bummed I have my brother's stag party tomorrow. Ugh. Nice blog post yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Cell just popped to my W. Heard a rumble of thunder. Right on corner of MA/RI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Nice blog post yesterday! Thanks Wizzy. I was on NPR yesterday and they plugged my blog a few times so I thought I had to go home and freshen it up with a new post lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 That's a really impressive synoptic setup for a NE severe weather event. As other have mentioned timing looks a bit slow for us but it looks impressive just west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I'm really starting to get optimistic. There are still definitely a few things that can go wrong, however. I posted my thoughts here: http://www.nymetrowe...l-for-saturday/ Just saw that blog. Nice work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Thanks Wizzy. I was on NPR yesterday and they plugged my blog a few times so I thought I had to go home and freshen it up with a new post lol. I actually had been thinking quite a bit lately as to what state had the highest tornado average per square mile and was going to do that in the upcoming days but don't need to now! That's a pretty crazy statistic, especially considering how much CT leads the other states around us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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