andyhb Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Morning junk could throw a wrench in this as well, this is the Northeast afterall, it's going to take more than strong wind fields to get something substantial going (whereas it would be easier in a location with better access to the Gulf/better lapse rates and such). I can see why Goss decided to go conservative. That said, the model runs tonight certainly indicate an uptick in this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Looks like the potential is there for some convection possibly Sunday. Euro as we suspected was a little overdone with the cutoff. It also may be a timing issue of the GFS is right. The GFS brings it in Saturday Night. Doesn't look too impressive right now though either way. At least right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Anyway.. now that Kevin has taken his ball and gone home... I thought the overnight runs looks pretty impressive for severe on Saturday - especially west of here. Seems like an impressive amount of instability for September with a very dynamic system... long hodographs and strong forcing. Probably need timing to speed up a bit for SNE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Anyway.. now that Kevin has taken his ball and gone home... I thought the overnight runs looks pretty impressive for severe on Saturday - especially west of here. Seems like an impressive amount of instability for September with a very dynamic system... long hodographs and strong forcing. Probably need timing to speed up a bit for SNE though. Yeah NY state looks nice. Just not sure how it plays out here in the evening. I guess it could sustain itself since we don't have to worry about SSTs screwing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 The GFS looks like it pegs ern NY...especially SE NY state pretty well Saturday. Some of the parameters look like they weaken as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Not at all. I just don't like when friends act kind of nasty to their friends. No big deal .. Hopefully Saturday turns out ok. I don't think we see much in SNE since it's coming at night, but I'm usually wrong as you guys like to point out I don't disagree. It just depends on timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Anyway.. now that Kevin has taken his ball and gone home... I thought the overnight runs looks pretty impressive for severe on Saturday - especially west of here. Seems like an impressive amount of instability for September with a very dynamic system... long hodographs and strong forcing. Probably need timing to speed up a bit for SNE though. what's the timing look like for western CT-have a decision to make on a block party that runs 2-8pm...we can move to sunday which is making alot of sense based on what I'm reading....thx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 The NAM from last night really strengthens what looks to be an unorganized line of convection around 20z and then moves it to the coast of the N Mid Atlantic and Western New England. Timed well with the vigorous shortwave moving through Central PA and NY at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 The NAM from last night really strengthens what looks to be an unorganized line of convection around 20z and then moves it to the coast of the N Mid Atlantic and Western New England. Timed well with the vigorous shortwave moving through Central PA and NY at that time. its a high shear environment, if we can muster up any good CAPE we could get some nice storms. However, at this time im favoring a more broken line of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Surprised this is getting less attention...quite a trend on the GFS here over the last two model cycles...pretty impressive looking setup. The SPC SREF now also has 60kts of 0-6km bulk shear over NY State, Eastern PA, and parts of Western NJ at 00z Sunday. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f60.gif Last nights 00z run valid at the same time: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/f72.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Looks like the event is slowed down some-more of a evening event for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Surprised this is getting less attention...quite a trend on the GFS here over the last two model cycles...pretty impressive looking setup. The SPC SREF now also has 60kts of 0-6km bulk shear over NY State, Eastern PA, and parts of Western NJ at 00z Sunday. http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_12z/f60.gif Last nights 00z run valid at the same time: http://www.meteo.psu.../AVN_0z/f72.gif Looks better for NY State/PA and possibly western areas? It's at the best point where the s/w wave digs down and kicks in the dynamics. It lifts out as it moves east which makes it better for NY and PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Looks better for NY State/PA and possibly western areas? It's at the best point where the s/w wave digs down and kicks in the dynamics. It lifts out as it moves east which makes it better for NY and PA. Yeah, absolutely. The SREF mean has nearly 2000 joules of mixed layer cape extending pretty far north into the good shear values..so I think this could turn into a big damaging wind event there if all goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Yeah, absolutely. The SREF mean has nearly 2000 joules of mixed layer cape extending pretty far north into the good shear values..so I think this could turn into a big damaging wind event there if all goes well. I could see that. I like when those s/w's kick down and out like that. Perfect for height falls and forcing. Just not sure much of anything here in BOS, but areas like Albany and points south into eastern PA look pretty good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 If we could get this cold front to speed up a bit so that it is entering SNE by like 18 Z and not 00 Z. Then Saturday could end up being an interesting afternoon. But as it stands now, it looks as if the Cold Front will be entering SNE around 00 Z. Will have to monitor going ahead, but timing looks off right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 I agree that as far as coverage goes ENY, NW NJ, and EPA would be favored, but western SNE might do better with regards to storm mode. I don't mind the slightly weaker dynamics if it means being out ahead of the front. That said, I still would prefer it to speed up a bit... 23Z initiation is fine in June, but in Sept. I'd rather see it no later than 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 If this front even comes through between 21z-0z there could be some fun across western sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 question: 0z is 7pm right? 18z, 1pm etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 question: 0z is 7pm right? 18z, 1pm etc? Until we change the clocks in November 0z is 8 PM and 18z would be 2 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 The 9z SPC SREF actually has a SIG TOR area depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Really the only chance SNE has is to get some stuff out ahead of the line.. Sometimes we see those renegade supercells that form well in advance. If we get a few of those we could have some fun..otherwise all the action is well to our west and we see little more than downpours with the passage of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Good looking storm on the NY/VT border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 The 18z GFS is painfully slow now, even brings up timing questions for E PA/NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 NAM certainly ramped things up for west of here, perhaps into NE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 NAM certainly ramped things up for west of here, perhaps into NE as well. Where are you located? Yeah it's a little slow still for this area, but very impressive nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Where are you located? Yeah it's a little slow still for this area, but very impressive nonetheless. Talking about from this board's perspective, I'm actually in the Pac NW lol. But seriously, 300+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH across a huge portion of NY state from that 00z NAM by 21z. The instability isn't shabby either, with 1000-2000 J/kg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Wow...KPSF at 00z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Wow...KPSF at 00z... That's just a beauty. If you read Ryan's writeup about the NH longtrack F2 in '08 (in the last NE severe thread) there's a similar looking wind profile. In fact this one looks even better, although it's just a model of course. If that verifies, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I feel like we would be much better off if it was a very, very potent shortwave, as opposed to a huge longwave trough. That way, there is still ascent, but not too much large scale ascent, which leads to more clouds, convective debris, etc. A good example of a very potent shortwave with an otherwise similar setup is 9/16/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 andyhb, what site do you get that from? That's a beautiful sounding. I do point and clicks on twisterdata, but it doesn't provide all of that info beneath, and I can't just type in a station ID. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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