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Severe Weather potential 9/8/12


weatherwiz

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This morning stuff is a little better than I thought yesterday...at least in the NYC area so far. I mean I can see why it occurred, but looking at everything yesterday..it was tough to tell if it would be batch of shwrs with iso tstms....or will it be more discrete.

Today's dynamics much better especially kinematics. Just saying that the general synoptic set up is somewhat similar in terms of LP and front to the west and theta-e boundary coming up from the south. Also more sun to start today's event than 7/26 which helped.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1207 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2012

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

1100 AM TORNADO BREEZY POINT 40.56N 73.93W

09/08/2012 QUEENS NY EMERGENCY MNGR

FDNY REPORTS MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN

BREEZY POINT. POSSIBLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND CARS MOVED.

TIME BASED ON RADAR.

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This morning stuff is a little better than I thought yesterday...at least in the NYC area so far. I mean I can see why it occurred, but looking at everything yesterday..it was tough to tell if it would be batch of shwrs with iso tstms....or will it be more discrete.

water temps in jamaica bay where the waterspout formed are in the mid to upper 70s, my dew at my home station is 76. looks like the couplet tightned up as it hit land before weakening as it moved away from the higher theta-e air.

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I doubt there will be the need for that and Taunton thinks so as well:

AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THE LINE

SUSTAINING INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND. FEEL WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING

LIFTING NEWD WITH THE MAIN SHRTWV TROUGH INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RVR

VLY THAT THE SQUALL-LINE WILL DISSIPATE IN STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES

THE E COASTLINE AND MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR.

You're not eastern New Eng lol..you're in west central SNE

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water temps in jamaica bay where the waterspout formed are in the mid to upper 70s, my dew at my home station is 76. looks like the couplet tightned up as it hit land before weakening as it moved away from the higher theta-e air.

There was good shear there and with 1000-1500J ML CAPE, that's all you need with low LCL and high dews.

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Wow at these southerly synoptic/non-convective winds...

Saranac Lake is sustained at 30mph gusting 45mph out of the south.

Colchester Reef station on VT shoreline near BTV is sustained at 46mph out of the south. Granted that's over open water but sustained winds of 40-50mph on the lake is impressive.

Wind Advisory expanded to the entire BTV CWA.

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Wow at these southerly synoptic/non-convective winds...

Saranac Lake is sustained at 30mph gusting 45mph out of the south.

Colchester Reef station on VT shoreline near BTV is sustained at 46mph out of the south. Granted that's over open water but sustained winds of 40-50mph on the lake is impressive.

Wind Advisory expanded to the entire BTV CWA.

boats getting thrashed around in lake george, people dont realize winds of 30-40 mph is going to cause huge waves on the lake given a SSE wind

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