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Severe Weather potential 9/8/12


weatherwiz

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036

WWUS30 KWNS 081515

SAW5

SPC AWW 081515

WW 635 TORNADO CT MA NJ NY CW 081520Z - 090100Z

AXIS..35 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..

10SW JFK/NEW YORK CITY NY/ - 10WNW BAF/WESTFIELD MA/

..AVIATION COORDS.. 30NM E/W /9SW JFK - 18NNW BDL/

HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.

MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.

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WWUS40 KWNS 081520

WWP5

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0635

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1020 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

WT 0635

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 50%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 30%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 70%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 50%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 10%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : <05%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%

&&

ATTRIBUTE TABLE:

MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.0

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 450

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 21035

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&

FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND

WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU5.

:weight_lift:

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Those storms are definitely firing on a theta-e boundary. NAM had a nice job on that...well even the GFS too I guess. Look at the obs in CT especially BDL and up to BOS too. Tds are dropping because the boundary layer is not moist enough yet, so the lower dews aloft are mixing out a bit. But closer to the south coast and especially down by JFK, the boundary layer is richer with dews in the low 70s. I think as this moves northeast...that is where the risk of more rotating storms are possible. Might be something where the srn end of this line has the better potential of anything. Still not sure if this threat increases, or is this one of those one time moments where conditions maximize like they did near NYC...and the threat remains steady state through the aftn as it moves NE? Maybe another LI special?

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Those storms are definitely firing on a theta-e boundary. NAM had a nice job on that...well even the GFS too I guess. Look at the obs in CT especially BDL and up to BOS too. Tds are dropping because the boundary layer is not moist enough yet, so the lower dews aloft are mixing out a bit. But closer to the south coast and especially down by JFK, the boundary layer is richer with dews in the low 70s. I think as this moves northeast...that is where the risk of more rotating storms are possible. Might be something where the srn end of this line has the better potential of anything. Still not sure if this threat increases, or is this one of those one time moments where conditions maximize like they did near NYC...and the threat remains steady state through the aftn as it moves NE? Maybe another LI special?

Somewhat similar set-up to 26 July when theta-e boundary lifted north X PA to S'rn Tier with QLCS rapidly apporaching from the west. Today's event just shifted much more to the east.

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Somewhat similar set-up to 26 July when theta-e boundary lifted north X PA to S'rn Tier with QLCS rapidly apporaching from the west. Today's event just shifted much more to the east.

This morning stuff is a little better than I thought yesterday...at least in the NYC area so far. I mean I can see why it occurred, but looking at everything yesterday..it was tough to tell if it would be batch of shwrs with iso tstms....or will it be more discrete.

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THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634

CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN WW 634 ALONG A

THIN FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY IN SWRN NY. ALONG WITH THE SRN

EXTENT OF THE LINE IN WRN PA AND WV...THIS QLCS SHOULD INTENSIFY

RAPIDLY AS IT REACHES THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NRN VA TO CNTRL NY

IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING

WIND THREAT EXPECTED. A DOWNSTREAM TORNADO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED FOR

WFO BTV/ALY/BGM AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS EXPECTED FOR

CTP/LWX/PHI.

mcd1928.gif

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Get in the basement

I doubt there will be the need for that and Taunton thinks so as well:

AM NOT CONFIDENT WITH THE LINE

SUSTAINING INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND. FEEL WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING

LIFTING NEWD WITH THE MAIN SHRTWV TROUGH INTO THE ST LAWRENCE RVR

VLY THAT THE SQUALL-LINE WILL DISSIPATE IN STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES

THE E COASTLINE AND MORE STABLE MARITIME AIR.

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