weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 TOR warning for Kings and Queens county in SE NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Beautiful picture. I don't get too jazzed over severe events as--due to their hit/miss nature, more often than not, most of us 'enjoy from the sidelines' Reading yhour enthusaism here though has me raising an eyebrow. Congrats, Andy. I for one don't have a burning desire for a tornado to rip through my yard, so I don't mind that setting up west of NE. Just give me some good straight-line winds and I'll be fine. TKs Mike u may very well get your wish Well As a few of us thought was possible yesterday..here it is THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SERIAL-TYPE DERECHO EVENT...CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS. Kev wasn't Leslie supposed to hit SNE today? Derecho in a HSLC event? ok..... Why don't you do some research on "off" season severe weather seriously one of the biggest issues for getting a derecho classification will be that the area under risk is not much larger than the minimum criteria for the wind swath.. .so you're going to need to maximize potential immediately then run the gamut. Ian, the QLCS will probably wind up extending outside the bounds of the MOD risk area so the classification maybe met For meh lapse rates Ncape values actually aren't that bad...up around 0.2 suggesting more in the way of a fatter Cape profile as opposed to tall and skinny. Wiz, the ALB 12z RAOB has the DCAPES over 900 and +CAPE around 1300. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Those cells moving into ct will probably have the best environment all day. Those are the ones we mentioned yesterday ahead of a thea-e surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Is that a tornado warning just east of NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Is that a tornado warning just east of NYC? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Tornado Watch coming soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Tornado Watch coming soon MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY...SWRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 081439Z - 081645Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE OUT OF A NARROW BAND OF TSTMS INVOF THE NEW YORK CITY METRO. THE RISK FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL INCREASE WITH ATTENDANT TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS. DISCUSSION...A FEW CELLS WITHIN A NARROW BAND OF TSTMS IN THE TRI-STATE AREA HAVE EXHIBITED TRANSIENT/WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATION DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FORCED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH 0-1 KM SHEAR WAS ONLY AROUND 15-20 KT PER OKX/DIX VWP DATA...THIS SHOULD COMPARATIVELY STRENGTHEN AS THE ACTIVITY EVOLVES NWD THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH GRADUAL SURFACE HEATING AMIDST UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY SHOULD EXIST FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS TO BECOME SUSTAINED FOR LONGER DURATION AND LIKELY INTENSIFY...WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 09/08/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Heavy sun now at soccer, but no storms east of river so I'm safe LOL...we get it. You don't like what Coastal, ChrisRotary, Ryan, and Ian said about storms weakening as they push into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 This might be more of the show instead of the line out west. This will have better instability. I guess we'll see how they develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 LOL...we get it. You don't like what Coastal, ChrisRotary, Ryan, and Ian said about storms weakening as they push into New England. Of course he twists it. We were talking about the line later on. We all talked about the leading shwrs/tstms yesterday but it's possible that may be more of the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Well, getting this discrete stuff changes things a bit. I was skeptical on that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Yeah we will see if this keeps up to our southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Well, getting this discrete stuff changes things a bit. I was skeptical on that... Yeah I was too. Shear strengthens rapidly next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiWxWatcher Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I wasn't expecting the severe weather to start so soon, and cloud cover is rolling in at North Adams....oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Well, getting this discrete stuff changes things a bit. I was skeptical on that... I was questionable on that too. Maybe it can hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Still rotation in that cell, doesnt look at anything has touched down yet...Figure we would know in a hurry if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Yeah I was too. Shear strengthens rapidly next few hours. Can't wait to see the 11 AM obs to see if we got dewpoints to boost back up...if we can get them to 70F or higher before that stuff comes given the storng heating we've had instability would get a major boost...would maybe be looking at 1500 J/KG or close to 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 This will probably have better CAPE than the line later on. Mid level temps will probably be cooler now actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Yes Yes for Queens and Brooklyn. Doesn't Noreaster27 live in Queens. :-o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Yeah I was too. Shear strengthens rapidly next few hours. Still not the reason for the mod risk so far east but perhaps academic. We were looking this over yesterday and there was a hint for sure. But, always kinda hard to believe I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 This will probably have better CAPE than the line later on. Mid level temps will probably be cooler now actually. Lack of cap somewhat apparent so far. Kind of a messy radar. Early tho of course can improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Lack of cap somewhat apparent so far. Kind of a messy radar. Early tho of course can improve. This will probably have a messy mode if they organize more I suppose. Maybe the srn end of the line is better looking as it has all the good stuff to tap into on srly flow. A little unsure how this develops. Maybe more of a messy cluster with a few that exhibit some rotation? Nothing impressive to me quite yet, but early like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 well that line was just over me, and now off to my west I see blue skies, jfyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 TDWR is seeing better rotation than OKX from what I can tell. Some of it may be localized which is why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 TDWR is seeing better rotation than OKX from what I can tell. Some of it may be localized which is why. Latest okx scan looks more impressive in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 TDWR is seeing better rotation than OKX from what I can tell. Some of it may be localized which is why. Pretty strong couplet.. might be something there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Looks like some weak rotation just east of White Plains, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Latest okx scan looks more impressive in Brooklyn Pretty strong couplet.. might be something there Yeah it looks better now on OKX, or did a few min ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Over at NYC forum suggests there may have been touchdown in Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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