CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Why are you down on most of CT and Mass? Reasoning? Well it's not down, just going by what I see. It probably will be a good event to our west. I just think the line will fall apart somewhat and weaken east of the border into SNE. I gave my reasons yesterday. I could see some strong storms and maybe a CYA SVR storm or two near the CT valley area...just don't think it will be that crazy of a deal here east of the border. If somehow the timing speeds up, then maybe things look better further east. The timing aspect are a little unknown...but overall I would rather be west. Even BTV may get hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Well it's not down, just going by what I see. It probably will be a good event to our west. I just think the line will fall apart somewhat and weaken east of the border into SNE. I gave my reasons yesterday. I could see some strong storms and maybe a CYA SVR storm or two near the CT valley area...just don't think it will be that crazy of a deal here east of the border. If somehow the timing speeds up, then maybe things look better further east. The timing aspect is a little unknown...but overall I would rather be west. Even BTV may get hit hard. I guess someone should tell SPC then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Interesting that dewpoints have been mixing down across much of SNE...need to get that pool of more moist llvl air into the region. Though if you look at obs down by NYC with that batch of storms you see DP up to 74 at LGA last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Well it's not down, just going by what I see. It probably will be a good event to our west. I just think the line will fall apart somewhat and weaken east of the border into SNE. I gave my reasons yesterday. I could see some strong storms and maybe a CYA SVR storm or two near the CT valley area...just don't think it will be that crazy of a deal here east of the border. If somehow the timing speeds up, then maybe things look better further east. The timing aspect are a little unknown...but overall I would rather be west. Even BTV may get hit hard. Where is BTV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 pouring down here in NYC with some thunder, winds 10 - 20 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Well it's not down, just going by what I see. It probably will be a good event to our west. I just think the line will fall apart somewhat and weaken east of the border into SNE. I gave my reasons yesterday. I could see some strong storms and maybe a CYA SVR storm or two near the CT valley area...just don't think it will be that crazy of a deal here east of the border. If somehow the timing speeds up, then maybe things look better further east. The timing aspect are a little unknown...but overall I would rather be west. Even BTV may get hit hard. Completely agree with you. See my post above. Sounds like you and I are the ones who don't like this event. Was searching for a friend lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Well it's not down, just going by what I see. It probably will be a good event to our west. I just think the line will fall apart somewhat and weaken east of the border into SNE. I gave my reasons yesterday. I could see some strong storms and maybe a CYA SVR storm or two near the CT valley area...just don't think it will be that crazy of a deal here east of the border. If somehow the timing speeds up, then maybe things look better further east. The timing aspect are a little unknown...but overall I would rather be west. Even BTV may get hit hard. I agree CRV maybe the eastern extent of the severe; then again I have seen many LCHS QLCS' hold together even after daylight during the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 FWIW the NAM looks decent even into the CT river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 winds really starting to rip thinking about taking the patio furniture in just to be safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 winds really starting to rip thinking about taking the patio furniture in just to be safe Lol what? Winds ripping lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j24vt Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 BTV is Burlington, Vermont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Though if you look at obs down by NYC with that batch of storms you see DP up to 74 at LGA last hour Good...winds have also turned due southerly so that will advect the higher dews back in as well. If we get dews into the lower 70's we'll see instability skyrocket pretty quickly, especially with the sun we've had here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Ok I guess that's it then. Ryan and Ian poo pooing today. So it's not happening I guess I'm not poo pooing it though I'm still not sold on New England outside perhaps western areas. Take the new NAM.. it's still not getting the line to you till after 0z and it's in weakening mode by then. If it's indeed that slow then I don't see how the threat is as high as SPC states as far east as they state, as the mod is dictated more by a wind threat than the tor threat imo. If nothing else there's a lot more uncertainty as you get further east. My main issue is how people talk about things in very concrete terms when convection by nature tends to be extremely difficult to nail down specifics on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Completely agree with you. See my post above. Sounds like you and I are the ones who don't like this event. Was searching for a friend lol. Well it's not that I don't like it, if it is faster than western areas could get hit hard. All I mean is that I'm not sure it will be a big deal for most of us in SNE. I certainly would not rule anything out where Ryan and Wiz are...just not sure the good severe makes it there. People like MPM are probably in the best spot in SNE...or out by North Adams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 The thing is even a meh looking line is going to draw down some pretty strong winds and that will cause some damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The thing is even a meh looking line is going to draw down some pretty strong winds and that will cause some damage. That can be true too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 EricFisherTWC (Eric Fisher) NWS Chat: "WFO Buffalo will be going to look at the damage on the west side of Buffalo." / reports of significant wind damage #NYwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 That can be true too. We're getting 20-30 mph gusts just from mixing alone...doesn't seem too unreasonable that with convection involved we can mix down another at least 20-30 mph. Also, the LLJ is still going through the strengthening process...LLJ should strengthen another 10-15 knots or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Ominous calm before the storm at soccer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Sounds pretty serious just west of Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 BUF gusted to 47kts. I do think the line will have strong winds with embedded hooks. The question is more how far east can it survive as dynamics screw on out to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 All I thought about during the long 20 mile run this morning was a TOR and major winds just ripping thru town lol. It actually motivated me to push on. Just nasty humid..I weighed myself before and after.Lost 8 lbs. Your a sick weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 For meh lapse rates Ncape values actually aren't that bad...up around 0.2 suggesting more in the way of a fatter Cape profile as opposed to tall and skinny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Listening to Buffalo FD.. tor possibly touched down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 OT but this site is awesome! http://hint.fm/wind/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Heavy sun now at soccer, but no storms east of river so I'm safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I agree CRV maybe the eastern extent of the severe; then again I have seen many LCHS QLCS' hold together even after daylight during the fall. Hey bud! Hope all is good with you. I have not been on here at all, but will be more through the winter. Hope it's not the dud like last year. The winds are cranking up here in Glens Falls and looking at the radar, it's still going to be a little while before we see any possible storms, unless they pop up first. Been a kind of wierd mix of sun to clouds back and forth for a while. I also have not heard anything from the counties Warren,Washington or Saratoga's emergency offices. They will sometimes put out a special weather statement. Be Safe!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 rotation in those cells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Well it's not that I don't like it, if it is faster than western areas could get hit hard. All I mean is that I'm not sure it will be a big deal for most of us in SNE. I certainly would not rule anything out where Ryan and Wiz are...just not sure the good severe makes it there. People like MPM are probably in the best spot in SNE...or out by North Adams. Exactly what I was intending to say only you said it. The closer you can get to the NY border the better. As for "most" of us. this will mainly be a nice rain event and maybe a decent light show. But either way. It marks the end of this awful air mass. Need to get rid of these 70 dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 rotation in those cells TW NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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