ChiWxWatcher Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Welcome to New England! You'll radiate pretty nicely there in North Adams, I think. You'll get shadowed a bit come snow season, but the temps will make up for it. It's already pretty sunny, but there's some pretty nasty storms way west of us, and the sun is peaking in and out. We just did a huge shop last night and I hope nothing goes bad. This moderate risk really came out of nowhere, as I have been busy with school and whatnot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 We'll have to watch those storms in jersey this morning for rotation as they head NE Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Sun is at last making bonafide appearances through the clouds now--hopefully that will expand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 We'll have to watch those storms in jersey this morning for rotation as they head NE Well hopefully we don't see alot of this stuff pop up too early or otherwise that would hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 What's going to hurt the chances for tornadoes off to our west will be the fact that LCL's are much higher across central NY/PA...up around 1250m. Across SNE LCL's are about 750m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Well hopefully we don't see alot of this stuff pop up too early or otherwise that would hurt us. Solid cloud deck here now. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_PA/anim8vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Solid cloud deck here now. http://www.meteo.psu...A/anim8vis.html Getting more in the way of clouds here but still a decent amount of breaks and sun. Seems like as llvl moisture continues to increase along with moisture convergence starting to get more in the way of clouds to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Getting more in the way of clouds here but still a decent amount of breaks and sun. Seems like as llvl moisture continues to increase along with moisture convergence starting to get more in the way of clouds to develop. There are definitely breaks showing up in W CT though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 There are definitely breaks showing up in W CT though Yeah there are sufficient breaks within the clouds...I've had sun pretty much since it rose this morning. I'm not really worried about heating today. My worry is we get crap showers early on which stabilizes things down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Getting more in the way of clouds here but still a decent amount of breaks and sun. Seems like as llvl moisture continues to increase along with moisture convergence starting to get more in the way of clouds to develop. 9 am obs from the hud valley area. HUDSON VALLEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS NEWBURGH PTSUNNY 73 70 88 S9 29.79F MONTGOMERY PTSUNNY 73 67 81 S6 29.77F POUGHKEEPSIE PTSUNNY 75 67 76 SE9 29.76F ALBANY CLOUDY 73 64 73 S25G35 29.72F I remember a couple of times where we had a few spinups and there was cloud cover most of the day. The sun is a big factor but we have the other factors in place to help overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Watching that stuff moving into NYC. any chance that screws things for the Hudson River Valley/ W. CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Man already sustained winds near 30mph out of the south on the BTV shore, and 50-60mph at 3Kft working across Adirondacks...not going to take much to mix down 50kts at 3000ft. "South winds already sustained 26 kts at Colchester Reef and will increase areawide through late this morning. Also noted 50 kts at 3 kft on ktyx VAD past few hours...indicative of very strong wind fields moving in from the west. Isolated storms possible across northern New York...moving rapidly northeastward around 50 kts. Main action for late this afternoon/evening will evolve from activity currently extending from near buf southward through western PA. This is associated with linear forcing associated with vigorous upper trough over Ohio. Good moisture surge noted across southeastern New York/CT with low 70s dewpoints. Looks like everything is on track to come together. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 9 am obs from the hud valley area. HUDSON VALLEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS NEWBURGH PTSUNNY 73 70 88 S9 29.79F MONTGOMERY PTSUNNY 73 67 81 S6 29.77F POUGHKEEPSIE PTSUNNY 75 67 76 SE9 29.76F ALBANY CLOUDY 73 64 73 S25G35 29.72F I remember a couple of times where we had a few spinups and there was cloud cover most of the day. The sun is a big factor but we have the other factors in place to help overcome. The dynamics are just so potent today we really don't need alot of sun at all. Obviously the more we get the bigger the bonus. Here it's 76F as of 9 AM...with the sun we've had and look to continue to get we could get well into the 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Happened before with several Fall type systems... one of the biggest issues for getting a derecho classification will be that the area under risk is not much larger than the minimum criteria for the wind swath.. .so you're going to need to maximize potential immediately then run the gamut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Think I might try a storm chase today, have a fully charged phone, gassed up car and radarscope on my samsung galaxy nexus. I would guess 84 west just over the CT/NY border would be a good place to start. not going ot be an easy day to chase with motions. basically plant yourself out ahead and hope you're in the right spot then watch it leave you behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Only positive posts allowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Already a few wind damage reports across far western NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Only positive posts allowed. like usual... but to be clear i've not belittled the event at all really. just questioned a few smaller details. and wondered why ct blizz is still such a bad poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Only positive posts allowed. LOL Is this a snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 like usual... but to be clear i've not belittled the event at all really. just questioned a few smaller details. and wondered why ct blizz is still such a bad poster. I still think this is more ALB and Hudson valley on west, but I could see some SVR spill into the Berks and maybe western CT. Then as second s/w approaches, I could see a flare up over areas like RI or SE MA and the Cape very late overnight. Maybe if that pre-frontal like develops and races east..the action could be further east....but not sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 LOL Is this a snowstorm? I can't wait to reduce his snow calls by half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Welcome to New England! You'll radiate pretty nicely there in North Adams, I think. You'll get shadowed a bit come snow season, but the temps will make up for it. North Adams Airport (AQW) is a great radiational cooling spot and will often be colder than Pittsfield Airport (PSF) by several degrees even though Pittsfield is quite a bit higher. Yes, North Adams does get shadowed quite a bit in winter synoptic snow situations as winds with an easterly component downslope quite a bit there. Regardless, the seasonal average (probably about 65" right in town) will be quite a bit higher than Chicago. It's already pretty sunny, but there's some pretty nasty storms way west of us, and the sun is peaking in and out. We just did a huge shop last night and I hope nothing goes bad. This moderate risk really came out of nowhere, as I have been busy with school and whatnot. Not too sunny here with a lot of low level clouds zipping from SSE to NNW. While this is representative of good wind shear, the clouds will reduce surfacing heating and instability some if they persist. The lapse rates on the Albany, NY sounding also leave a lot to be desired. I think the convection will primarily be in the form of a low-topped squall line capable of wind damage and maybe a few discrete cells out ahead. The cells out ahead of the main line can be especially dangerous if some manage to get going due to the wind shear. Hail will not be much of a threat today as the freezing level is way up near 600 mb. Too bad we don't have a nice EML overhead. If we did, then we'd be in for a historic day of large rotating supercells. At least some of the synoptic scale forcing may help to overcome the less than stellar instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Interesting that dewpoints have been mixing down across much of SNE...need to get that pool of more moist llvl air into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I can't wait to reduce his snow calls by half. Why are you down on most of CT and Mass? Reasoning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Watch out to our west...it's a SVR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Got to be honest my friends. I am still not sold. Yes places west of say Springfield have a good chance, but the best chance still resides in New York State. I agree the line will survive all the way to the coast. But I just don't think it will be anything spectacular by the time it reaches most of us. The latest run of the Millersville WRF is almost kind of disheartening. It breaks the line up into pieces by the time it gets here. And the Millersville WRF is usually convectively happy. So this is something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 no EML , seems to equal higher potential for busting for substantial SVR in SNE. even w vt /w ma/ wct isn't this basically what ekster's paper alluded to? what was it that HH or ekster said were the two ingredients necessary for good svr if lapse rates are not optimal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 North Adams Airport (AQW) is a great radiational cooling spot and will often be colder than Pittsfield Airport (PSF) by several degrees even though Pittsfield is quite a bit higher. Yes, North Adams does get shadowed quite a bit in winter synoptic snow situations as winds with an easterly component downslope quite a bit there. Regardless, the seasonal average (probably about 65" right in town) will be quite a bit higher than Chicago. Not too sunny here with a lot of low level clouds zipping from SSE to NNW. While this is representative of good wind shear, the clouds will reduce surfacing heating and instability some if they persist. The lapse rates on the Albany, NY sounding also leave a lot to be desired. I think the convection will primarily be in the form of a low-topped squall line capable of wind damage and maybe a few discrete cells out ahead. The cells out ahead of the main line can be especially dangerous if some manage to get going due to the wind shear. Hail will not be much of a threat today as the freezing level is way up near 600 mb. Too bad we don't have a nice EML overhead. If we did, then we'd be in for a historic day of large rotating supercells. At least some of the synoptic scale forcing may help to overcome the less than stellar instability. I should add that even though we don't have terrific instability, low topped supercells are certainly capable of spinning a tornado up, especially given good wind shear. I wonder if SPC will go with a Tornado Watch for the area based on this idea. The funneling of the winds through the N to S oriented Hudson, Berkshire, and Connecticut Valleys can add to the total wind shear by increasing both the speed shear and directional shear. In addition, the stronger winds can also enhance the advection of higher dew points and temperatures from the south. There's a reason why a lot of the historic tornadoes of W NE and E NY have occurred in the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Ok I guess that's it then. Ryan and Ian poo pooing today. So it's not happening I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 seems like it will be in and out quick shouldnt be a big deal That area of rain and thunderstorms to the south seems to keep growing. Hope it doesn't screw western CT and the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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