weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Looking at mesoanalysis along with the RAP things are already looking quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Great lead up discussion folks. Anyone chasing? Thoughts on staging city? Coming from eastern Mass, I'm considering either 90 west or 84 west into southeastern NY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Great lead up discussion folks. Anyone chasing? Thoughts on staging city? Coming from eastern Mass, I'm considering either 90 west or 84 west into southeastern NY... Just west of CT in SE NY could be a great spot, especially with winds channeling and backing across the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Just woke up so didn't look at satellite but the sun is out! Nada here--but things are looking fairly decent nonetheless so I'm not concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiWxWatcher Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Im W. MA, and I am in a 10% TOR risk...I have no desire for a tornado to hit my backyard! Stay safe everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Nada here--but things are looking fairly decent nonetheless so I'm not concerned. Satellite doesn't look bad at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 ALB will be doing a special 18z sounding today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Satellite doesn't look bad at all! Are you using visible? The images I have still have us pretty much in darkness, so I can't tell much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Are you using visible? The images I have still have us pretty much in darkness, so I can't tell much yet. Infrared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Latest runs actually don't have mid-level lapse rates as bad for today...much closer to 6 C/KM as opposed to 5 C/KM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Mostly Sunny 75/72 May tornadoes tickle your toes and lightning light up your life, good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 How often do we have screaming southerly winds in September with a very moist low-level airmass and have lots of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Here's the Public Severe Weather Outlook ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL WOUS40 KWNS 081010 CTZ000-DEZ000-MAZ000-MDZ000-NHZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-VTZ000-081800- PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONNECTICUT NORTHERN DELAWARE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE NEW JERSEY CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WITH SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE LINE INTENSIFIES...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE WIND GUSTS OF OVER 70 MPH. STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ..BROYLES/MEAD/MOSIER.. 09/08/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 True It will probably turn out to be like many prior year cool season QLCS events. What makes tomorrow's interesting is IF scattered supercelss can develop out ahead of the forced line. Its good so is NOV 16-17 2010. I did a paper on this event. In NOV 1989 there were actually 2 severe/tornado events in NYS one on the the 16th the other on the 20th. Here are some research papers on these events. I have them buried somewhere in my library if your interested I find them and send them to you. LaPenta, K., and Barton, R. April,1993: The 20 November 1989 Northeast Severe Weather Outbreak. Eastern Region Technical Attachment No. 93-4A Nemeth, J.S., Jr., and Farina, K., June, 1994: The Role of Jetstreaks in the Tornadic Development of the November 16, 1989 over the Northeast United States. Eastern Region Technical Attachment No. 94-6A Yes remember those well, the 20 th was the dry wind burst low dew point type. Should be a crazy afternoon CT River valley west., currently low clouds here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I just want some damn hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 How often do we have screaming southerly winds in September with a very moist low-level airmass and have lots of sun. Hey Wiz, Suns out here and I can see a few low level clouds racing in from the south. The hudson valley area from KSWF to KALB. Will be interesting today. Good luck up in your area too !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Hey Wiz, Suns out here and I can see a few low level clouds racing in from the south. The hudson valley area from KSWF to KALB. Will be interesting today. Good luck up in your area too !! Your area could get pretty wild later on. HRRR and RAP all develop anywhere from 1500-2000+ Cape across portions of SE NY into extreme western CT...that's pretty significant given the dynamics we're working with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Your area could get pretty wild later on. HRRR and RAP all develop anywhere from 1500-2000+ Cape across portions of SE NY into extreme western CT...that's pretty significant given the dynamics we're working with. I think I'll put the pool floats in the shed We'll see what SPC has to say in the 1300z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I think I'll put the pool floats in the shed We'll see what SPC has to say in the 1300z outlook. Much better to film them blowing across the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Wiz hows it looking in balt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Your area could get pretty wild later on. HRRR and RAP all develop anywhere from 1500-2000+ Cape across portions of SE NY into extreme western CT...that's pretty significant given the dynamics we're working with. I guess the question is, how far east does the severe stuff make it? Is this just a western CT event or could we see some severe condition Hartford east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Much better to film them blowing across the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiWxWatcher Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Sunny and breezy over in western Mass, and it isn't even 9 in the morning. Today looks to be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Wiz hows it looking in balt. Not as impressive as up this way but there will be some severe around down that way...damaging winds would be the main threat there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Can't wait to watch things slip off to my north and south and then redevelop to my east. I am ready for outflow boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Sounds like a TOR coming soon? MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1926 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NY AND CNTRL-ERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 081242Z - 081415Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING FROM CNTRL NY SWD INTO ECNTRL PA. INITIALLY THIS MORNING...WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A TORNADO THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIMEFRAME. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NY AND CNTRL PA WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S F. IN ADDITION...MODIFYING THE PITTSBURG 12Z SOUNDING PRODUCES NO CAP BY MID-MORNING SUGGESTING CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AND DEVELOP QUICKLY AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM. INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT AS A LINE OF STORMS ORGANIZES AND MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES WITH DISCRETE CELL ELEMENTS AHEAD OF THE LINE OR WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 09/08/2012 ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 suns poking threw and winds are starting to crank this thread is going to be huge by the end of the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Mentions Serial Derecho which I mentioned yesterday!!! ...NERN U.S. INTO CAROLINAS... LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RESPONSE TO ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AS SEEN IN MASS AND MOISTURE FLUXES AND TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENTS/ WILL DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING INTO ERN QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND BY AFTERNOON. THE NET RESULT OF THIS PROCESS WILL BE AN INCREASE IN BOTH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY/ AND VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. THE STRONGLY FORCED NATURE OF THIS SYNOPTIC SYSTEM HAS RESULTED IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BY THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS WITH REGARD TO STORM EVOLUTION AND DOMINANT MODE. THESE DATA SUGGEST THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH OF TSTMS INTO A QLCS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL NY/PA TO NRN VA. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z BUF/PIT SOUNDINGS WHICH REVEALED LITTLE OR NO CAP AND AN ALREADY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER NRN PORTION OF MODERATE RISK AREA...TO 1500-2000 J/KG IN THE SOUTH. WHEN COUPLED WITH 50-60 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP WILL SUPPORT EMBEDDED BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES AND SUPERCELLS. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SERIAL-TYPE DERECHO EVENT...CHARACTERIZED BY WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM NERN PA/NRN NJ NWD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY/WRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE NRN EXTENSION OF STRONGER INSTABILITY ALIGNS WITH A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 200-300+ M2 PER S2/. THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT MAY BE MODULATED BY THE ANTICIPATED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES AND SHALLOWER MESOVORTICES. BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER-ORDER STORM MODES WILL DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT FROM CNTRL VA INTO THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J PER KG/ WILL PROMOTE THE EVOLUTION OF LINE SEGMENTS AND MULTICELLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH A RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Sunny and breezy over in western Mass, and it isn't even 9 in the morning. Today looks to be significant. Where in NW Mass are you? Here in western Franklin we've been in clouds all morning--but breezy. I just went out to do some fall overseeding and it was actually misting a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 Surface winds are SE across much of the region as well...something to keep an eye on throughout the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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