CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 New tower just exploded between Waltham and Watertown on radar. Weak mesocyclone but probably enough to be dropping some dime size hail given the amount of CAPE in the HGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Are they hinting at a derecho type of event with this? Ian should know.. ...DAMAGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SATURDAY... POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/ECMWF...SUGGEST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIG INTO LOWER MI BY 08/12 BEFORE EJECTING NEWD IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION AND DEEPENING OVER SERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. 90-120M 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WRN/UPSTATE NY DURING THE DAY ENSURING A STRONGLY FORCED AND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE COLD FRONT. THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS A FRONTAL INTRUSION THAT WILL INDUCE A BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SURGES ACROSS THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Not sure if this was posted, but the SREF pops a 20 area now at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Just had a bolt come from the side of this to about a mile from me. Awesome! Was looking at this from the Pizza Palace here in town. Very impressive looking. Wicked tall,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Are they hinting at a derecho type of event with this? Ian should know.. The are hinting at a potentially damaging MCS, a derecho has specific criteria that must be fulfilled before it can be called a "derecho". Usually this happens during post analysis (and occasionally nowcasting when it is really obvious that there is a derecho occurring). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Are they hinting at a derecho type of event with this? Ian should know.. ...DAMAGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SATURDAY... POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/ECMWF...SUGGEST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIG INTO LOWER MI BY 08/12 BEFORE EJECTING NEWD IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION AND DEEPENING OVER SERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. 90-120M 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WRN/UPSTATE NY DURING THE DAY ENSURING A STRONGLY FORCED AND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE COLD FRONT. THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS A FRONTAL INTRUSION THAT WILL INDUCE A BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SURGES ACROSS THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. was the word "derecho" mentioned in the discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 was the word "derecho" mentioned in the discussion? No hence the wording"hinting at" 40-love..Blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 The point, not all damaging MCS/wind events are classified as derechoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 No hence the wording"hinting at" 40-love..Blizz oh. so you're doing the ctblizz "let's pick a strong word and run with it" routine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 oh. so you're doing the ctblizz "let's pick a strong word and run with it" routine? Just wondering if they might be implying that. Nothing more..nothing less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Landphoon-derecho hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Upton not nearly as gung ho as SPC with tomorrow. Bill Goodman was pretty optimistic last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Well didn't have it hitting Logan lol, but that is what aftn updates are for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 sref bullsyes the nyc area into SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Are they hinting at a derecho type of event with this? Ian should know.. ...DAMAGING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SATURDAY... POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN U.S. SATURDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM/ECMWF...SUGGEST SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL DIG INTO LOWER MI BY 08/12 BEFORE EJECTING NEWD IN A NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION AND DEEPENING OVER SERN ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. 90-120M 12HR HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WRN/UPSTATE NY DURING THE DAY ENSURING A STRONGLY FORCED AND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE COLD FRONT. THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS A FRONTAL INTRUSION THAT WILL INDUCE A BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT SURGES ACROSS THE NRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. It's not necessarily a derecho pattern per se but it could perhaps meet the criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Bill Goodman was pretty optimistic last night. Yes he was but who ever did the afternoon afd was not, no severe mention in the grids at all just breezy with winds 10 to 20 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 It's not necessarily a derecho pattern per se but it could perhaps meet the criteria. Nov 89? I like Wizs analogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 oh. so you're doing the ctblizz "let's pick a strong word and run with it" routine? probably no major reason to go there but this event has pretty high potential for damaging winds. i was wondering if we've had a yr with five mod risks in the northeast (counting the DC area) before.. i think we're at 5 now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I'm under a.severe warning here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Nov 89? I like Wizs analogy. I'm not that familiar with that event tho looking at NARR and the fact that there was a high risk over the south with the same system I don't see a ton of similarity. That was a ginormous trough. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1989/us1116.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 probably no major reason to go there but this event has pretty high potential for damaging winds. i was wondering if we've had a yr with five mod risks in the northeast (counting the DC area) before.. i think we're at 5 now? Or this late in the year? I can't recall seeing dead leaves in cumulus like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I'm not that familiar with that event tho looking at NARR and the fact that there was a high risk over the south with the same system I don't see a ton of similarity. That was a ginormous trough. http://www.meteo.psu...1989/us1116.php That spawned the Huntsville, AL F4 tornado, which killed 21 people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Even though I was the only one who saw it close by, some amazing structure shots of the storms from the south. Classic updraft scenario where I drove through. No rain, but good CG...weird to see that around here. It was shortly followed by large fat drops before the heavens opened. Nothing here at home though. Missed each cell by about 4 miles. Ian would have loved the photo ops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Or this late in the year? I can't recall seeing dead leaves in cumulus like today. that's weird. it's really leaves? i know this is the only d2 mod risk in sept in the northeast.. there have only been three overall, though that's only since 2003. tho im not terribly sure that's a useful metric for several reasons. one, it's subjective. two, our forecasting ability is much improved now. im sure there are plenty of d2 events in the past that were not mod that would be mod today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Even though I was the only one who saw it close by, some amazing structure shots of the storms from the south. Classic updraft scenario where I drove through. No rain, but good CG...weird to see that around here. It was shortly followed by large fat drops before the heavens opened. Nothing here at home though. Missed each cell by about 4 miles. Ian would have loved the photo ops. isolated convection is always nice.. kinda not the typical in these parts either. i saw a few cool pics of cells in n md and s pa earlier too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 that's weird. it's really leaves? i know this is the only d2 mod risk in sept in the northeast.. there have only been three overall, though that's only since 2003. tho im not terribly sure that's a useful metric for several reasons. one, it's subjective. two, our forecasting ability is much improved now. im sure there are plenty of d2 events in the past that were not mod that would be mod today. Yes the d2 difference is big IMO, given the waning instability on the newer model runs they will either drop the mod or shrink it west away from the coast I would think in the d1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 that's weird. it's really leaves? i know this is the only d2 mod risk in sept in the northeast.. there have only been three overall, though that's only since 2003. tho im not terribly sure that's a useful metric for several reasons. one, it's subjective. two, our forecasting ability is much improved now. im sure there are plenty of d2 events in the past that were not mod that would be mod today. Bring it on.. And yes, I thought it was a flock of birds until I downloaded the photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Warning went buhbye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Yes the d2 difference is big IMO, given the waning instability on the newer model runs they will either drop the mod or shrink it west away from the coast I would think in the d1 outlook. I'm still not really sold on much of the New England portion of it though I can understand the reasoning. I'd probably also extend it south a bit given the very consistent guidance for the southern portion of the line. I do wonder if they are quicker to pull the trigger when it's a weekend in a highly populated area.. tho I definitely don't think it's unwarranted as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Yes the d2 difference is big IMO, given the waning instability on the newer model runs they will either drop the mod or shrink it west away from the coast I would think in the d1 outlook. I doubt strongly that the former/bolded will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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