weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 On 9/7/2012 at 5:14 PM, earthlight said: You can see some of the warm sector debris ahead of the main line on the 12z SPC WRF simulated radar http://www.emc.ncep....yle/spcprod/12/ The run time says it's form Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 MOD RISK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On 9/7/2012 at 5:17 PM, CT Rain said: I could see a damaging synoptic wind event tomorrow afternoon if the NAM LLJ verifies lol No sh*t..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Big time mdt. Whoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Serial derecho maybe?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Did everyone faint from the D2? Where is everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 That NY area and even PA look to get a heck of a gusty line. I suppose it includes western areas too. Just unsure of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On 9/7/2012 at 5:38 PM, weatherwiz said: Did everyone faint from the D2? Where is everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 holy****! Well your thread may turn out to be the best one of the year! On 9/7/2012 at 5:30 PM, weatherwiz said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 It's even better b/c Kevin is downplaying it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On 9/7/2012 at 5:38 PM, weatherwiz said: Did everyone faint from the D2? Where is everyone? a little wary after the 7/26 bustola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On 9/5/2012 at 1:58 PM, radarMan said: Good stuff Wiz. The setup reminds me of Aug. 10th a bit. We won't need too much instability to get impressive storms; 2K j/kg might yield moderate risk in fact. I'd favor initially discrete cells, possibly training with eventual interactions forming linear segments, but not necessarily a west-east propagating bow. Good Call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 On 9/7/2012 at 5:48 PM, Brian5671 said: a little wary after the 7/26 bustola This is an entirely different setup. We have a late fall like system moving into a July like airmass. The amount of lift/forcing with this system is freaking incredible and will do lots of wonders. We have strong height falls which were not really present on 7/26 and that day we actually had some height rises and were capped off around 550mb...neither is the case for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Ha, that was a good call Radarman. So the 7/26 bust had the instability but sh*tty lapse rates. This has mediocre instability and lousy lapse rates. But, it has strong forcing going for it west of SNE especially. Sort of a compromise. I guess from the border....or especially CT river on east..not sure it's a big deal I guess, other than sct stronger cells perhaps. VT and western MA may be in the zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 On 9/7/2012 at 5:51 PM, CoastalWx said: Ha, that was a good call Radarman. So the 7/26 bust had the instability but sh*tty lapse rates. This has mediocre instability and lousy lapse rates. But, it has strong forcing going for it west of SNE especially. Sort of a compromise. I guess from the border....or especially CT river on east..not sure it's a big deal I guess, other than sct stronger cells perhaps. VT and western MA may be in the zone. Yup! It's an entirely different ballgame when you start involving strong dynamical support and forcing. As we usually see later on in the fall with convection it becomes more dynamical than thermodynamical. Even 1000-1500 Cape tomorrow would be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I'm leaving home tomorrow to go to the UConn football game and back east. Horrible timing haha. I'd love to have been able to chase west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On 9/7/2012 at 5:51 PM, CoastalWx said: Ha, that was a good call Radarman. So the 7/26 bust had the instability but sh*tty lapse rates. This has mediocre instability and lousy lapse rates. But, it has strong forcing going for it west of SNE especially. Sort of a compromise. I guess from the border....or especially CT river on east..not sure it's a big deal I guess, other than sct stronger cells perhaps. VT and western MA may be in the zone. I do like how the GFS sped up the timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Unfortunately I wavered after Kev's incredulity. Lesson learned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On 9/7/2012 at 5:54 PM, CT Rain said: I do like how the GFS sped up the timing I'm still a bit surprised how far east they have the MOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 On 9/7/2012 at 5:54 PM, ChrisM said: I'm leaving home tomorrow to go to the UConn football game and back east. Horrible timing haha. I'd love to have been able to chase west of here. Screw UCONN, they blow...go chasing. Don't waste your time watching UCONN lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On 9/7/2012 at 6:00 PM, Ian said: I'm still a bit surprised how far east they have the MOD. That's my feeling too. I suppose it could happen, but I would have cut it off maybe more to the west. The GFS did speed it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 When you have dynamics being forecasted as strong as what they are for tomorrow you really don't need much cape at all. Plus factor in the great mixing along with no inversion...won't take much at all to generate winds to the surface so that line will pack a punch probably to the coast...although with gradual weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I'm not well-versed on Northeastern U.S. severe wx events but on a first glance I'd be considered about crapvection issues... there's very little EML/capping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On 9/7/2012 at 6:00 PM, Ian said: I'm still a bit surprised how far east they have the MOD. Yeah I probably would have kept it in W CT only. Though the GFS is fast with the fropa so I don't know. I'm interested in the discrete potential for W CT down through NNJ after 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 TOR CON values CT - 3 DC – 3 DE - 3 MA - 3 MD - 3 NC central, east - 3 NH – 3 NJ - 3 NY central – 4 NY east – 3 PA northeast – 4 PA central, southeast – 3 SC north-central - 2 VA central, east - 3 VT - 3 Other areas – less than 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I just chucked isolated 80MPH gusts on facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On 9/7/2012 at 6:01 PM, CoastalWx said: That's my feeling too. I suppose it could happen, but I would have cut it off maybe more to the west. The GFS did speed it up. The 4k NAM WRF is pretty fast which might help support it tho it kinda wimps out as it hits new england. http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/hires/2012090712/east/hires_ref_east_mouse.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On 9/7/2012 at 6:04 PM, Ian said: The 4k NAM WRF is pretty fast which might help support it tho it kinda wimps out as it hits new england. http://www.weatherbe..._east_mouse.php I wonder what if anything that surge of moisture does from the south during the day. Some of that may be interesting as it moves in ahead of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 On 9/7/2012 at 6:12 PM, CoastalWx said: I wonder what if anything that surge of moisture does from the south during the day. Some of that may be interesting as it moves in ahead of the line. Great view of the PW surge here on the NYC zoomed 4km WRF http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/hires/2012090712/nyc/hires_pwat_nyc_mouse.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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