canderson Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Ah, thanks for the clarification. I was just in Bermuda, while they can handle a 'cane I'd hate to see a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Interaction between lows (Fujiwhara interaction) is more a function of distance and size, and less so of intensity. Distance is big, so no interaction really, and if there was any, Leslie's size would cancel any intensity difference and make Michael it's b**ch. correct... its really more a function of the circulation over a specific radius of the storm rather than the maximum vorticity. I am working on some real time circulation plots that show this more eloquently than words alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 OTOH (spin off of my previous post in Leslie's thread), Euro has handled Michael better than the GFS, especially intensity wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Visiteur Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 correct... its really more a function of the circulation over a specific radius of the storm rather than the maximum vorticity. I am working on some real time circulation plots that show this more eloquently than words alone. In the meanwhile, Holland and Ritchie (1993) offers a pretty thorough guide to matters of vortex interaction. Echoing Phil, circulation tends to be the primary factor, although if the smaller storm has a much greater cyclonic vorticity, there will be major distortions to the larger vortex. For reference, Figure 7 from the aforementioned paper: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Looks like EWRC in progress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Lol. ERCs at 30N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Lol. ERCs at 30N Well when the storms further S can't even develop an eyewall, I guess you gotta start somewhere Both the GFS and ECMWF are now projecting Michael to become larger in the next 24-48 hours which seems to be in line with the current microwave presentation looking for a larger core to reorganize. We'll see if the increased shear the NHC is expecting materializes. The latest GFS track for Michael looks rather fishy given how slow it is recurving Leslie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Lol. ERCs at 30N Omg, I've never seen you so dismissive. You are just way over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Omg, I've never seen you so dismissive. You are just way over it. It's actually scientifically interesting. You don't often get eyewall replacement cycles so far north in the Atlantic. By the time most hurricanes hit 30N, they're ready to recurve and undergo ET. Here, conditions were so favorable, we got an ERC. It's just goes a symptom of how far anomalously north the polar jet is displaced right now across the entire NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 It's actually scientifically interesting. You don't often get eyewall replacement cycles so far north in the Atlantic. By the time most hurricanes hit 30N, they're ready to recurve and undergo ET. Here, conditions were so favorable, we got an ERC. It's just goes a symptom of how far anomalously north the polar jet is displaced right now across the entire NH. Not only that, but it looks like it will be a "soft" ERC...that is, that the cycle went so smoothly that there might be a second round of intensification after the ERC completes. That's a rarity even for deep tropics systems. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2012_13L/webManager/basicGifDisplay48.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Do ERC's tend to go smoother in microcane that in larger systems? To my untrained mind, it would seem that rebuilding a smaller eyewall would be less disruptive that if the eye is of a great size but on the flip side is whether a small system is more susceptible to being greatly weakened by a change because of its overall small size. Just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 You know.... looking at the GFS' runs the past few days, I have to say that it is a bit concerning... despite the size difference.. with how it depicts the interaction between Michael and Leslie due to the inaccuracy of portraying Michael's intensity. Combine this with EWRC that will increase Michael's size, I can't help but wonder if we are trending towards a solution that will result in a more Fujiwhara-like interaction versus Leslie shearing/absorbing Michael. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 You know.... looking at the GFS' runs the past few days, I have to say that it is a bit concerning... despite the size difference.. with how it depicts the interaction between Michael and Leslie due to the inaccuracy of portraying Michael's intensity. Combine this with EWRC that will increase Michael's size, I can't help but wonder if we are trending towards a solution that will result in a more Fujiwhara-like interaction versus Leslie shearing/absorbing Michael. Why are you concerned? If one fish eats another in the loserzone of the North Atlantic, does it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Why are you concerned? If one fish eats another in the loserzone of the North Atlantic, does it matter? I don't consider storms threatening land to be fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I don't consider storms threatening land to be fish. You talking about Newfoundland? C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 You talking about Newfoundland? C'mon. Hey, ask them how Igor was there. In all seriousness, I would personally love to chase a major storm headed for the Bay of Fundy area (yes, I know further west).... but just to witness the storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Hey, ask them how Igor was there. In all seriousness, I would personally love to chase a major storm headed for the Bay of Fundy area (yes, I know further west).... but just to witness the storm surge. The storm surge would be less noticeable since the tidal amplitude would dwarf it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Hey, ask them how Igor was there. In all seriousness, I would personally love to chase a major storm headed for the Bay of Fundy area (yes, I know further west).... but just to witness the storm surge. I'll concede the wind data from land stations were impressive-- and in most cases the highest winds happened within an hour or two of the lowest pressure, suggesting a vaguely tropical structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Not only that, but it looks like it will be a "soft" ERC...that is, that the cycle went so smoothly that there might be a second round of intensification after the ERC completes. That's a rarity even for deep tropics systems. http://tropic.ssec.w...fDisplay48.html Not if it pulls a Leslie and upwells cold waters underneath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Of some minor interest, the interaction with Leslie really messes with the SHIPS. 09/08 06z SHIPS ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12090806AL1312_ships.txt From 72-96 hours, every parameter drops from except for 2, the first is persistence which changes from contributing -1 to 0, and GFS Vortex Tendency, which changes it's contribution from -1 to +26, overwhelming every other parameters weakening and thus showing a net gain in intensity from this period. A look at the 00z GFS shows between this time, Michael interacts heavily with Leslie and begins to get absorbed by Leslie's significantly larger circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 Of some minor interest, the interaction with Leslie really messes with the SHIPS. 09/08 06z SHIPS ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12090806AL1312_ships.txt From 72-96 hours, every parameter drops from except for 2, the first is persistence which changes from contributing -1 to 0, and GFS Vortex Tendency, which changes it's contribution from -1 to +26, overwhelming every other parameters weakening and thus showing a net gain in intensity from this period. A look at the 00z GFS shows between this time, Michael interacts heavily with Leslie and begins to get absorbed by Leslie's significantly larger circulation. I don't recall an Iris-Karen type interaction in the Atlantic since Iris and Karen. Will be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 The eye is hanging on nicely despite northerly shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Intersting looking storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 This storm strikes me as being at least somewhat annular in nature, tight inner core and not much else. Don't let the somewhat blah color of the convection fool you, this is one heckuva violent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Only in the tropics... 11 pm disco says Michael will be absorbed by front in 96 hrs or so... 100 mph cane to absorption by front THE CYCLONE IS THEN FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY DAY 4...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL UNCLEAR IF THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF LESLIE...AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...OR THE COLD FRONT TRAILING LESLIE...AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 This storm strikes me as being at least somewhat annular in nature, tight inner core and not much else. Don't let the somewhat blah color of the convection fool you, this is one heckuva violent storm. Yeah it does, it's just smaller than a typical annular but the tropical storm force radius isn't much larger than the hurricane force radius which makes it somewhat annular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 9, 2012 Share Posted September 9, 2012 It's a nice-looking storm-- I love that big, clear eye. I wonder what the surface winds are, though. The lack of really deep convection would suggest that high winds aren't efficiently mixing down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 10, 2012 Share Posted September 10, 2012 So...anyone want to take a stab at what the actual peak intensity of Michael was? Looks pretty damn good for a high-lat Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 You talking about Newfoundland? C'mon. Chill man, you'll get your 100 kt landfall eventually (unless we get more craptastic crap)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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