HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 12Z Euro has a really intriguing solution for Michael. It has Michael jog westwards, then allows Leslie to capture Michael and drag Michael northeastwards. Literally two days after Leslie scrapes across eastern NS and western NL, Michael makes landfall in eastern NL. A pretty interesting 1-2 punch to the Atlantic provinces. I wubz 65-kt nor'easters. So hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 I wubz 65-kt nor'easters. So hawt. I just find it interesting simply because of the one-two punch. Could you imagine something like this happening in the Gulf/Florida? Very rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 The big problem with that, I think, is we also need MW images to improve over Dvorak and there is an obviously limited data set for those as well. Yep. The pressure-wind thing is particularly complex, because wild deviations from the standard curve go very far in both directions-- and adjustments for factors like size and intensity trend can't account for all of it (as you saw in the research we worked on together). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 I think Kirk will get upped to CAT3 on post storm . But I'd still like more majors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Should be the second hurricane that formed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Hurricane Michael AL, 13, 2012090600, , BEST, 0, 291N, 424W, 65, 990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 And to think 2 days ago... Michael was forecast to be a remnant low in 48 hrs... shows how far we have to go in forecasting the tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Michael has a higher T# than Leslie right now Could be a Kirk redux if that eye really starts to clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Wow, another small micro cane with a solid presentation! What is going on in the subtropics this year that is alluding the MDR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 65kt cane with the advisory CIMSS ADT numbers getting up there CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.5 / 979.9mb/ 77.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.5 4.5 5.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 One of the best looking 75mph storms ive ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Wow, just goes to show you can't ignore even a little swirl if it truly has tropical cyclone structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Looking quite healthy this evening, with the eye warming nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 This should be a Cat 2. Might even end up peaking stronger than Leslie, whose inner core has been gutted because of upwelled waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 This should be a Cat 2. Might even end up peaking stronger than Leslie, whose inner core has been gutted because of upwelled waters. Adjusted T# is 80 kt with a raw T# of 100 kt and rising quickly according to the advanced Dvorak technique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012 ...MICHAEL RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 42.0W ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST. MICHAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MICHAEL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 CIMSS ADT continues to rise CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.9 / 972.1mb/ 87.4kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.9 5.6 5.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Wow, two special advisories in 12 hr. This has gotta be one of the more difficult-to-predict hurricanes (in terms of intensity) in the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 The long dearth of major hurricanes this year is clearly about to come to an end later tonight...and given the location of Michael, it would be among the farthest northeast recorded majors aside from Kate 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Wow, two special advisories in 12 hr. This has gotta be one of the more difficult-to-predict hurricanes (in terms of intensity) in the past few years. These tiny storms are incredibly difficult. Kirk and Michael alone are probably enough to completely botch the NHC's intensity forecast for the year. If the NHC has a bias, it seems that they tend to over intensify larger TCs (Isaac, Leslie, Debby) while under intensifying small TCs (Gordon, Kirk, Michael). But this fits along with the global dynamical model bias, so this is not that surprising (think Dean vs. Felix 2007). I also want Michael to be the storm to dispels the rumor that subtropical like TCG can't ever result in a powerful hurricanes. In fact both Wilma and Rita from 2005 were spawned by non-tropical origins. For TCs it doesn't matter how they develop, it matters what environment they are engrossed in which dictates the structure. The long dearth of major hurricanes this year is clearly about to come to an end later tonight...and given the location of Michael, it would be among the farthest northeast recorded majors aside from Kate 2003. Kate 2003 is actually not a poor analog to the track expected for this storm, although perhaps the turn will be more subtle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Nice-looking little microcane there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 These tiny storms are incredibly difficult. These Kirk and Michael alone are probably enough to completely botch the NHC's intensity forecast for the year. If the NHC has a bias, it seems that they tend to over intensify larger TCs (Isaac, Leslie, Debby) while under intensifying small TCs (Gordon, Kirk, Michael). You have made a very astute observation. I think part of the challenge lies in the fact that large storms have their own eccentricities as well; for instance, factors in the boundary layer such as upwelling due to fetch play a much larger role in inner-core dynamics in large systems like Earl 2010 or Ophelia 2005. In those cases, large-scale synoptic as well as mesoscale factors would come equally into play, while in smaller systems the latter might have an even greater influence on intensity trends. The formation of outer eye walls might be easier to predicate in smaller than in larger systems due to complex, large-scale interactions with the surrounding air mass in large tropical cyclones. The dry-air entrainment in both Isaac and Leslie, each a large TC, is a prime example. (Leslie also faces widespread upwelling due to its large fetch, while a smaller TC would have a pronounced upwelling over only a limited area.) I also want Michael to be the storm to dispels the rumor that subtropical like TCG can't ever result in a powerful hurricanes. In fact both Wilma and Rita from 2005 were spawned by non-tropical origins. For TCs it doesn't matter how they develop, it matters what environment they are engrossed in which dictates the structure.Kate 2003 is actually not a poor analog to the track expected for this storm, although perhaps the turn will be more subtle. Agreed it is. In the case of Michael, the TC appears to be positioned in a sink zone that, combined with the ascent provided by the weak upper low to the west, is aiding intensification and, through divergence, is offsetting the potential shear produced by the upper anticyclone over Leslie to the southwest. The warmer upper-level air mass near the upper low, combined with the sink, is also helping Michael establish its own anticyclone, thereby facilitating pressure drops and the formation of a well-defined, small eye. In my opinion, Gordon had higher than the 110mph winds the NHC said he had. So theres major #1. ACE is taking a hit this year by truly puzzling NHC advisory intensities. I still don't know how they said Michael was 75mph 3 hours ago and got away with it. Guess since he wasn't forecast to be that strong they have to compensate by lowballing the initial intensity to help out with the end of season forecast error. Shame. Right. And the NHC deliberately fabricated the threat of Isaac to the Tampa area in order to influence political donations. I will see you later in the Twilight Zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 CIMSS ADT hit 5.5 CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.5 / 959.6mb/102.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.5 5.7 5.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 First major of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 And we have the first major of the year BULLETIN HURRICANE MICHAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 500 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012 ...MICHAEL BECOMES THE FIRST CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OF THE YEAR... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 41.7W ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Holy cow, what an impressive hundred knot cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 I'm completely shocked by how much this has intensified. Goes to show how little we know about tropical cyclones. Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 Always pull for the underdog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Michael being so strong should pull Leslie east of Bermuda missing the isanf for the most part, wouldn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 Michael being so strong should pull Leslie east of Bermuda missing the isanf for the most part, wouldn't it? Interaction between lows (Fujiwhara interaction) is more a function of distance and size, and less so of intensity. Distance is big, so no interaction really, and if there was any, Leslie's size would cancel any intensity difference and make Michael it's b**ch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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