Hurricane Michael

[isohume]

One thing I'll say, though: both Ernie and Isaac were two of the most awesome Cat 1s I've tracked or witnessed.

I imagine. Two tricky storms that took forever to develop fully...but worth the wait. Good call on chasing both.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Michael is up to 45 KTS on the ATCF, btw.

[dan88]

Both the SHIPS and LGE Mod now takes this to hurricane strength, with peaks of 64kt and 70kt respectively.

[HurricaneJosh]

But even then, they were awesome for <24 hours.

Negative Nancy.

I imagine. Two tricky storms that took forever to develop fully...but worth the wait. Good call on chasing both.

Thanks, Scott. I'm happy about both decisions.

[TUweathermanDD]

Cool thing is it actually doesnt look like crap, thanks.

[Superstorm93]

Redemption?

Already up to 50 mph (which it was forecast to never reach)

AL, 13, 2012090418, , BEST, 0, 273N, 436W, 45, 1006

[dan88]

45kt with the 5pm advisory, takes it to 60kt by day 4/5.

[phil882]

Both the SHIPS and LGE Mod now takes this to hurricane strength, with peaks of 64kt and 70kt respectively.

Yea, its clear that Michael today "created its own environment" through diabatic heating leading to anticyclonic outflow. This is very similar to how Kirk evolved, which was also originally sheared but was able to move into a thermodynamically more favorable environment that promoted deeper convection. Oftentimes there is a fine line between a marginal environment and a favorable one. With most of the subtropical Atlantic ranging from 1-3 degrees Celsius above normal, many of these marginal environments can easily turn into favorable regimes given the development of deep convection.

Unlike Kirk though, the large scale flow pattern is expected to take a turn for the worse for Michael, as strong westerly flow associated with the outflow of Leslie impinges on the circulation. The storm might have another 6-12 hours before it starts to feel the effects of this westerly flow resurgence. Michael still has a small fragile circulation, and as we saw with Kirk, it won't take much to disrupt the convective pattern.

[thewxmann]

Unlike Kirk though, the large scale flow pattern is expected to take a turn for the worse for Michael, as strong westerly flow associated with the outflow of Leslie impinges on the circulation. The storm might have another 6-12 hours before it starts to feel the effects of this westerly flow resurgence. Michael still has a small fragile circulation, and as we saw with Kirk, it won't take much to disrupt the convective pattern.

Satellite images already indicate some shear impinging upon the western side of the circulation.

[Amped]

Lets see how it likes the taste of Leslies outflow.

[wxmx]

Lets see how it likes the taste of Leslies outflow.

I think Michael will barely miss the brunt of Leslie's outflow, though there's some NWerly shear from Leslie's anticyclone, but it looks moderate. There's a good chance it might become a hurricane and outlive Leslie.

[wxmx]

...and it could become a hurricane sooner than later...eye is trying to clear on visible...and...

[dan88]

Special advisory now puts Michael at 55kt and the new forecast makes it a hurricane by tonight.

[Jmister]

I'd give Leslie and Michael about an 8 in the synchronized tropical cyclone event...both organizing in a similar fashion and timing. Looking good!

[wxmx]

I'd give Leslie and Michael about an 8 in the synchronized tropical cyclone event...both organizing in a similar fashion and timing. Looking good!

25-30N is the new tropics

[am19psu]

25-30N is the new tropics

I miss the good ol' days

[icebreaker5221]

25-30N is the new tropics

Cat 1 is the new Cat 3.

[wxmx]

Cat 1 is the new Cat 3.

and 19/6/1 is the new mean

[Drz1111]

^{Christ, Leslie is a big freakin' hurricane.}

[HurricaneJosh]

Cat 1 is the new Cat 3.

There's a hint of truth to this.

In the 1980s, Ernie and Isaac would have been Cat 2s. While the NHC seems to have become more liberal with regard to naming systems-- so we've got a large portfolio of crap storms every year-- they've seem to have gotten more conservative with regard to assigning categories once the system is a 'cane.

[phil882]

There's a hint of truth to this.

In the 1980s, Ernie and Isaac would have been Cat 2s. While the NHC seems to have become more liberal with regard to naming systems-- so we've got a large portfolio of crap storms every year-- they've seem to have gotten more conservative with regard to assigning categories once the system is a 'cane.

You can blame SFMR.

[wxsmwhrms]

There's a hint of truth to this.

In the 1980s, Ernie and Isaac would have been Cat 2s. While the NHC seems to have become more liberal with regard to naming systems-- so we've got a large portfolio of crap storms every year-- they've become way more conservative with regard to assigning categories once the system is a 'cane.

I have been thinking the same thing, Josh. In the days prior to SFMR, Isaac almost certainly would have been a solid cat 2 based on pressure and FL winds. Certainly, the SFMR is leading to a more accurate representation of surface winds, but it makes one wonder about people's experiences. For example, somebody who lived through Hurricanes Bonnie, Florence and Juan as category 1s in the 1980s in Louisiana would not be expecting Isaac to do what it did as a 2012 category 1.

[HurricaneJosh]

You can blame SFMR.

Hush-- I'm not blaming anyone, and I don't consider the new standards a problem. In my opinion, they're getting closer to the truth. They just need to finish reanalysis of the historical storms and adjust those intensities so the data set as a whole makes sense, and it doesn't look (falsely) like hurricanes used to be stronger.

[HurricaneJosh]

I have been thinking the same thing, Josh. In the days prior to SFMR, Isaac almost certainly would have been a solid cat 2 based on pressure and FL winds. Certainly, the SFMR is leading to a more accurate representation of surface winds, but it makes one wonder about people's experiences. For example, somebody who lived through Hurricanes Bonnie, Florence and Juan as category 1s in the 1980s in Louisiana would not be expecting Isaac to do what it did as a 2012 category 1.

Bingo. We are totally on the same page about this.

I was just saying (above) that they they need to complete reanalysis of the historical storms so the data as a whole make sense, and a contemporary Cat 1 and a 1960s Cat 1 are in the same ballpark. Like you suggested, Isaac was way beyond anyone's expectations for a Cat 1. I believe it really was a Cat 1-- but perhaps some of those historical Cat 1s weren't even 'canes. Who knows?

[phil882]

Hush-- I'm not blaming anyone, and I don't consider the new standards a problem. In my opinion, they're getting closer to the truth. They just need to finish reanalysis of the historical storms and adjust those intensities so the data set as a whole makes sense, and it doesn't look (falsely) like hurricanes used to be stronger.

Well the problem is that SFMR is a relatively new technology (post 2000), so there will still be always double standard when it comes to the reanalysis vs. current day systems. In fact, there is a double standard now between using satellite estimates vs. recon observations depending on the location of the storm. I agree with you that SFMR is probably getting us close to the truth... but if you can't use the same source for systems everywhere, you have a big problem with your dataset.

Its like trying to build a house, but use brick for one side and wood for the other.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

12Z Euro has a really intriguing solution for Michael. It has Michael jog westwards, then allows Leslie to capture Michael and drag Michael northeastwards. Literally two days after Leslie scrapes across eastern NS and western NL, Michael makes landfall in eastern NL.

A pretty interesting 1-2 punch to the Atlantic provinces.

[am19psu]

12Z Euro has a really intriguing solution for Michael. It has Michael jog westwards, then allows Leslie to capture Michael and drag Michael northeastwards. Literally two days after Leslie scrapes across eastern NS and western NL, Michael makes landfall in eastern NL.

A pretty interesting 1-2 punch to the Atlantic provinces.

Buy maple syrup futures

[HurricaneJosh]

Well the problem is that SFMR is a relatively new technology (post 2000), so there will still be always double standard when it comes to the reanalysis vs. current day systems. In fact, there is a double standard now between using satellite estimates vs. recon observations depending on the location of the storm. I agree with you that SFMR is probably getting us close to the truth... but if you can't use the same source for systems everywhere, you have a big problem with your dataset.

Its like trying to build a house, but use brick for one side and wood for the other.

Agreed, but what I'm hoping is that SFMR data will lead to 1) more accurate satellite-based intensity estimates and 2) greater insights into wind-pressure relationships (an area which continues to defy any kind of formulaic treatment)-- and that these findings can, in turn, be retroactively applied to historical cases in a new reanalysis, so that the dataset as a whole is somehow coherent.

What I've been wondering is whether the actual surface winds in hurricanes just aren't as high as everyone thought, and perhaps need to be adjusted down-- so, for example, perhaps a Cat 3 is a cyclone with a true, verifiable 85-kt wind at the surface.

Just thinking out loud here...

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Buy maple syrup futures

That's Québec. Here you want to buy futures in bakeapples, cod, and funny accents. A little bit of oil, too.

[am19psu]

Agreed, but what I'm hoping is that SFMR data will lead to 1) more accurate satellite-based intensity estimates and 2) greater insights into wind-pressure relationships (an area which continues to defy any kind of formulaic treatment)-- and that these findings can, in turn, be retroactively applied to historical cases in a new reanalysis.

What I've been wondering is whether the actual surface winds in hurricanes just aren't as high as everyone thought, and perhaps need to be adjusted down-- so, for example, perhaps a Cat 3 is a cyclone with a true, verifiable 85-kt wind at the surface.

Just thinking out loud here...

The big problem with that, I think, is we also need MW images to improve over Dvorak and there is an obviously limited data set for those as well.