wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 000 WTNT43 KNHC 032100 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012 THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH DEVELOPED FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...HAS GRADUALLY ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND RELIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 25 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET A LITTLE HIGHER AT 30 KT SINCE ASCAT HAS A KNOWN LOW BIAS AND BECAUSE THE RESOLUTION OF THE INSTRUMENT LIKELY CAN NOT RESOLVE THE SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY LIES BENEATH A TROUGH AXIS...WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR RELATIVELY LIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH AND THE CYCLONE MOVING IN TANDEM...WHICH KEEPS THE DEPRESSION IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN FOR A DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE SHORT TERM. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE ERODES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 25.6N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 25.8N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 26.4N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 27.3N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 28.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 28.5N 44.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z 29.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z 30.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 Not the brightest forecasted future... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Omg, exciting!!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Very 2012-esque with the quick formation; and spectacular intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Strong candidate for crappiest storm of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 TD13 has born. Not much love right now for proto Mikey from no one Sometimes being right hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Is it just me, or has NHC's threshold for numbering TD's decreased in recent years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 Is it just me, or has NHC's threshold for numbering TD's decreased in recent years? Well, 12 out of 13 have become tropical storms (TD 13 would become 13/13 if it becomes Michael...and that by itself should probably be a record), so they aren't just trigger happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Well, 12 out of 13 have become tropical storms (TD 13 would become 13/13 if it becomes Michael...and that by itself should probably be a record), so they aren't just trigger happy Yeah. The problem doesn't lie with classification, but just the general fact that the systems have been lacking quality this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 As I am not particularly knowledgeable about their accuracy of this tool as it's not something I see referenced very often, I would like to ask what kind of accuracy the microwave wind detection has. In this particular case, this SSMIS scan, taken as it, it would show TD13 being very close to Tropical Storm strength, with a decent region of >30kt and some spots which look to be 32/33kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Strong candidate for crappiest storm of the year! More like the decade.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 For what it is worth, the SHIPS is becoming more enthusiastic about this with this each run. 12z - peak of 32kt at 36 hours, falling to 22kt by 120 hours 18z - peak of 38kt at 36 hours, falling to 29kt at 72 hours and 20kt by 120 hours 00z - peak of 40kt at 96 hours, still 36kt at 120 hours, LGE mod peak of 49kt at 120 hours 06z - peak of 45kt at 108 hours, LGE mod peak of 54kt at 120 hours It has also dropped the expected shear considerably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 I bet you could paddle a canoe through this one without much trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 It appears we could have Michael with the next Advisory. Poor thing looks tiny compared to Leslie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 The circulation of hamsandwichstorm™ has actually looked really good since first light Sunday, maybe even earlier. As mentioned earlier in the thread, all it needed was persisent central convection. IIRC similar, snarky derogatory remarks were made by...ahem...the same person about what would go on to become Category 2 Kirk, so I wouldn't rule out some decent intensification. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 This Bittycanetm needs some sort of cute children's book written about it..."The Littlest Cyclone" or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 4, 2012 Author Share Posted September 4, 2012 So we are getting some love finally I agree with Steve, this is gonna be little Mikey soon. The NRL site has already changed it to Michael. We are 13/13 now wrt TDs->TSes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 This Bittycanetm needs some sort of cute children's book written about it..."The Littlest Cyclone" or something. One day the littlest cyclone was taking a stroll through the North Atlantic. The littlest cyclone was very lonely since it was in the middle of the open ocean with no other weather systems to play with, and it was also grumpy since dry air and shear were constantly battering it. Then the littlest cyclone saw a trough approaching and got excited, finally a friend! The littlest cyclone chugged towards the trough and asked "Will you be my friend?" The littlest cyclone got sheared to smithereens and it's remnants were scattered across thousands of square kilometers. Don't talk to strangers. The end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 One day the littlest cyclone was taking a stroll through the North Atlantic. The littlest cyclone was very lonely since it was in the middle of the open ocean with no other weather systems to play with, and it was also grumpy since dry air and shear were constantly battering it. Then the littlest cyclone saw a trough approaching and got excited, finally a friend! The littlest cyclone chugged towards the trough and asked "Will you be my friend?" The littlest cyclone got sheared to smithereens and it's remnants were scattered across thousands of square kilometers. Don't talk to strangers. The end. I think you need some sort of "heavy" for the book that hates Bittycanetm at first, but then learns a valuable lesson to appreciate ALL tropical cyclones. I suggest HurricaneJosh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Turd-Cane has become tropical storm Michael... THE DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL...THE 13TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2012 SEASON. ONLY 2005 AND 2011 HAD THE 13TH NAMED STORM FORM EARLIER THAN 4 SEPTEMBER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 The satellite loop makes me laugh. Just looking at it, I feel like I could swim around this thing. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Looks better than Leslie. Proves size doesn't matter, just work with what you got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 ... Micro storm number 2? :... Except this is even smaller? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Looks like crap. You posted this about another system recently-- I can't remember which one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 You posted this about another system recently-- I can't remember which one. All of them this season. Or at least, he credibly could have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 You posted this about another system recently-- I can't remember which one. Yeah, it's just fun to say too. This season has struggled tho, intensity wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Yeah, it's just fun to say too. This season has struggled tho, intensity wise. Kirk looked decent for almost a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 All of them this season. Or at least, he credibly could have. Yeah. It's interesting how the season hasn't been suppressed numbers-wise-- like in 1982/1983-- but it has been in terms of quality. Yeah, it's just fun to say too. This season has struggled tho, intensity wise. Yeah. One thing I'll say, though: both Ernie and Isaac were two of the most awesome Cat 1s I've tracked or witnessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 One thing I'll say, though: both Ernie and Isaac were two of the most awesome Cat 1s I've tracked or witnessed. But even then, they were awesome for <24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.