Brewers Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Portions of the area are under slight risk for the day 1 and 3 outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 You beat me to it. Wednesday especially has the potential to be fairly active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Already a nice storm cluster west of Des Moines, and a line northwest of LaCrosse. Lots of sunshine out ahead of those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted September 3, 2012 Author Share Posted September 3, 2012 Dont really see much potential today, however Wednesday definitely looks better especially if the front can slow down a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Wouldn't be shocked at a few supercells on Weds given the amount of 0-6km shear to work with on srn fringe of better flow from Canada ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 3, 2012 Share Posted September 3, 2012 Some pretty good cells south of La Crosse. MKX's take on thunderstorms: TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80 KT JET STREAK AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN WI TNT. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...VERY WEAK AND UNORGANIZED FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LAKE BREEZE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPS NEAR 90 F AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S WILL BOOST MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG FOR TNT AS TROPOSPHERE MOISTENS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURES. THE FEATURES DO APPROACH THE FAR WRN CWA BY EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP IN PLACE SO HAVE CHANCE POPS WEST OF MADISON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL WI INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI. FCST SOUNDING SHOW LITTLE TO NO CAP ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE TOWARD FLD...HENCE THE SLIGHT CHANCE THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THEN WENT WITH 50 POPS FOR TNT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY SINCE LOW TO MID LEVELS SHOWS VERY WEAK FLOW AND NO QG LIFT...HOWEVER VARIOUS MESO MODELS PRODUCE ABUNDANT CONVECTION FOR TNT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG GIVEN CAPE VALUES AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KTS AS THE JET STREAK MOVES INTO WI. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SHOULD SEE CONVECTION FROM MONDAY NIGHT WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. TUESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WARMING TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE 80S. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY UNSTABLE AND MODELS TRYING TO SHOW A WEAK WRINKLE IN THE FLOW...ALONG WITH NEARBY CONVECTION. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING...WITH INCREASING POPS OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY...SO EXPANDED LIKELY POPS TO THE LAKE IN THE MORNING...AND TAPERED POPS A BIT QUICKER IN THE WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE THE BULK OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON...WITH SOME SUNSHINE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY. SEEMS LIKE A DECENT CHANCE TO RECOVER TO AROUND 80 BY LATE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted September 4, 2012 Author Share Posted September 4, 2012 New day 2 outlook ...UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EWD INTO A DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...AN AFTERNOON INCREASE IN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED -- AIDED BY MODERATELY STRONG WNWLYS ALOFT SPREADING EWD ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE. WITH TIME...EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST A SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY FROM WI SWD INTO IL...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACCOMPANYING BOTH THE LINE AS WELL AS OTHER/MORE ISOLATED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS. SOME THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS WI AND IL AND INTO LOWER MI. EVENTUALLY HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SLOWLY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Liking my chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 First thunderstorm warning for Southern Ontario in a while including Peel Region, York Region, and the city of Toronto. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 11:47 AM EDT TUESDAY 4 SEPTEMBER 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR: =NEW= CITY OF TORONTO =NEW= MISSISSAUGA - BRAMPTON =NEW= CALEDON =NEW= VAUGHAN - RICHMOND HILL - MARKHAM. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== AT 11:45 RADAR INDICATES A THUNDERSTORM NEAR TORONTO AIRPORT MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS AT 35 KM/H. STRONG WINDS INTENSE LIGHTNING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MM IN 1 HOUR IS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 La Crosse might be the spot to be today. Looks like storms will likely form in E Minnesota and N Iowa and move E or SE into Wisconsin. Interesting, though that La Crosse is 75 at this hour and Milwaukee is 83. Dews are high everywhere in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The G Man Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 New day 2 outlook ...UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EWD INTO A DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR...AN AFTERNOON INCREASE IN CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED -- AIDED BY MODERATELY STRONG WNWLYS ALOFT SPREADING EWD ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE. WITH TIME...EVOLUTION OF AT LEAST A SEMI-ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS APPEARS LIKELY FROM WI SWD INTO IL...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACCOMPANYING BOTH THE LINE AS WELL AS OTHER/MORE ISOLATED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS. SOME THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS WI AND IL AND INTO LOWER MI. EVENTUALLY HOWEVER...THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A SLOWLY DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT. Less risk for Wayne County this time. Didn't have any hope of any severe weather. Also hello everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 I am liking the prospects for tomorrow, the NAM has pretty good shear/instability overlaying the warm sector across Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 I am liking the prospects for tomorrow, the NAM has pretty good shear/instability overlaying the warm sector across Michigan. Yeah I don't really agree with the SPC outlook cutting off the eastern portion. Looks like DTX doesn't either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ctually one of the better timing events we've had. Always gotta be wary of moring/early afternoon convection limiting the destabilization...but so far the RAP doesn't show anything through 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Can see the clouds building to the north/west... 91/73F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Yeah I don't really agree with the SPC outlook cutting off the eastern portion. Looks like DTX doesn't either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ctually one of the better timing events we've had. Always gotta be wary of moring/early afternoon convection limiting the destabilization...but so far the RAP doesn't show anything through 12z Yeah I would agree with this. Btw side note College of Dupage's website as of today's 18Z run of the NAM now has 3 hour increments for their maps centered on the Great Lakes. I definitely like this a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Don't forget we have the GOES-14 in SRSO mode (through the end of Oct.) .... its not centered on our area but you can still see the whole GLOV region http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Nice lightning show here....no rain yet...just some sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 4km NAM showing semi-discrete cells firing up over SEMI tomorrow around 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Looking good for DLL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Don't know...I'm on the north end of the city and it looks like it might just plow through downtown ... Not much rain so far, lots of lightning... very dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Don't know...I'm on the north end of the city and it looks like it might just plow through downtown ... Not much rain so far, lots of lightning... very dark. There's definitely some broad rotation on the southwest side of the storm. Won't threaten you, but areas to the south will have to keep an eye on that to make sure it doesn't tighten up any more. Looks like the cell is digging a bit, so it's moving to the right. Luckily it looks like the worst of the hail core will miss you to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Don't know...I'm on the north end of the city and it looks like it might just plow through downtown ... Not much rain so far, lots of lightning... very dark. Get in the basement!!! Well at least for some ppl in La Crosse. Jeebus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Yeah south of Hokah and down towards Brownsville need to watch this closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 There's definitely some broad rotation on the southwest side of the storm. Won't threaten you, but areas to the south will have to keep an eye on that to make sure it doesn't tighten up any more. Looks like the cell is digging a bit, so it's moving to the right. Luckily it looks like the worst of the hail core will miss you to the south. Looks fairly tight to me but not that strong, 50-60 kt. Could easily drop an EF0 or 1 though if it's really as organized as reflectivity suggests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Nice hook on that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Looks like it already occluded on latest scan. Still gonna have to watch that area for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Tons of instability in that area per mesoanalysis, 3000-4000 J/kg of ML and SBCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Pretty tight rotation near Monona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 Gonna have to watch the lake breeze closely when it interacts with the storms for weak tornado potential. Also I wonder if all the smoke being ingested into the storm is increasing hail potential, definitely increases cloud condensation nuclei so you get more rain drops and that's probably a better environment for hail growth. Hard to know if that's negligible or significant though. http://whirlwind.aos...snvisflash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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