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Isaac Remnant Thread


phlwx

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interesting that HPC uses a 00z Euro/GFS ensemble blend with support by the current 12z Euro, and that pushes the axis of heaviest precip further NE given the Euro faster evolution of the low and not closing off as far south as the GFS. Guess we'll see how this shakes out as more data comes into the grid from Canada and the Pacific.

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I see multiple "heavy rain" potential mentions in tuesday/wed forecasts but don't see any ridiculous looking 6 hour totals when looking at GFS/NAM...does Euro show heavier amounts in a short amount of time? Working a gig up in Newark and people already asking me if Tuesday evening is going to be monsoon like up there and been to busy to closely follow the forecast evolution of this event the past couple days.

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0.59" from overnight with 0.39" yesterday (0.98") total so far - heaviest rains overnight must have missed a little east of here. However, it looks like more rain pushing this way up from the south. Certainly need the rain here in Chester County where we are still only 72% of normal to date with a current deficit of 8.97"

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Flash Flood Watch issued

.HYDROLOGY...

A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. IN

ADDITION, THE REMNANTS OF ISSAC WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE ESPECIALLY

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE, FROM

SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, TO NEAR 2.25 INCHES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FLOODING OF

ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IF THE HEAVY RAIN BECOMES FOCUSED

ACROSS A WATERSHED, SOME OF OUR QUICKER RESPONDING WATERWAYS COULD

HAVE SOME FLOODING. BASED ON THE RATHER HIGH PW VALUES AND THE FACT

THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATE PRODUCERS,

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED. THIS WATCH WILL RUN THROUGH

TUESDAY NIGHT AND INCLUDE THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ZONES FROM

TRENTON TO WILMINGTON. THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY HAD LOCALLY VERY

HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT AND TODAY, THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD

GUIDANCE IS MUCH LOWER. DEPENDING ON TRENDS AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE,

THIS WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED WITH TIME.

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