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September 2012 Observations and Discussions


NEG NAO

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My low was 53.0F in Westchester. I had the heating on in the car yesterday when I started driving in Westchester, but then shut it off when I got to Brooklyn where I work (special ed teacher in East New York/Cypress Hills).

My lows have been contiuing to get warmer by a few degrees each night. I had a low of 50 Degrees last night. Using this extrapolation, I should expect a low of around 53-54 Degrees tonight. It should be interesting to see how close to reality this extrapolation is.

That is very nice that you are a Special Eduation teacher by the way.

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Interior central and southern NJ does radiate pretty well, especially in the Pine Barrens, because it's flat, rural, and it's soil is primarily sandy, which retains heat more poorly than normal soil. Lakehurst NAS, on the northeastern edge of it in Ocean County, dropped to 45 yesterday morning.

The land surface absolutely is the reason for why places radiate better than others. I visit relatives in Ocean County, and when I leave during the night, the car thermometer's temperature drops significantly when I reach the Pine Barrens, and then the temperature increases after you leave the Pine Barrens.

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test8.gif

That's an awesome pattern that is being depicted on both the ECMWF and GFS. If this were the same pattern a few months later, many snow lovers would be extremely overjoyed after last winter's dissapointment. Look at the Ridging into Greenland, indicative of a West-Based -NAO, and the ridging into BC indicative of a monster +PNA. The 12z ECMWF is even stronger and deeper with the trough on the 12z run.

test8.gif

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That's an awesome pattern that is being depicted on both the ECMWF and GFS. If this were the same pattern a few months later, many snow lovers would be extremely overjoyed after last winter's dissapointment. Look at the Ridging into Greenland, indicative of a West-Based -NAO, and the ridging into BC indicative of a monster +PNA. The 12z ECMWF is even stronger and deeper with the trough on the 12z run.

test8.gif

that's more of a north atlantic ridge than true blocking. anything that amplifies will go west of us with a fast jet in eastern canada

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Yeah the truly cool air well below normal air never makes it here this time of year. Even with this cool shot EWR had a whole 3 below normal days, none with a departure greater than 5 degrees below normal and today was already back above.

Given the upcoming pattern, we'll probably see mostly seasonal temperatures with the occasional 1-2 day cooler shot of air. Also, it seems likely we get a lot more rain next week than this past gorgeous week. Perhaps the trough will move a bit further east in time and we start October on a chilly note.

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Yeah the truly cool air well below normal air never makes it here this time of year. Even with this cool shot EWR had a whole 3 below normal days, none with a departure greater than 5 degrees below normal and today was already back above.

This is a much colder pattern than the last one, although I think the largest negative departures will be in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region; the +PNA/-EPO block doesn't quite teleconnect to the same eastern trough as winter because the wavelengths are just beginning to elongate.

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Late season warm spells...Will we get some late season heat this year?...

following is a list of years with at least three straight days 80 or better for late Sept. and on...2005 had three form the 21st-23rd but it was the end of a long warm spell...

Year..consecutive 80+ Max.

1881..9/23-9/28......6...91

1891..10/3-10/5......3...86

1895..9/20-9/23......4...97

1898..10/3-10/5......3...81

1905..9/28-9/30......3...88

1914..9/20-9/24......5...95

1920..9/23-9/26......4...88

1921..9/28-9/30......3...87

1922..9/30-10/3......4...88

1927..9/30-10/2......3...90

1930..9/20-9/26......7...87

1934..9/23-9/27......5...83

1941..9/21-9/23......3...91

1941..10/4-10/6......3...94

1946..9/25-9/27......3...83

1946..10/4-10/7......4...87

1948..9/27-9/29......3...84

1949..10/9-10/12....4...88

1950..10/1-10/3......3...86

1951..9/19-9/23......5...85

1954..10/1-10/4......4...86

1954..10/11-10/14..4...87

1959..9/21-9/24......4...90

1959..9/27-9/30......4...83

1959..10/4-10/6......3...88

1961..9/22-9/25......4...90

1965..9/21-9/23......3...88

1968..9/17-9/26....10...87

1968..10/1-10/3......3...85

1970..9/21-9/26......6...94

1972..9/25-9/27......3...86

1980..9/21-9/23......3...94

1984..9/23-9/25......3...86

2004..9/21-9/23......3...82

2007..9/25-9/27......3...87

2007..10/4-10/8......5...87

2010..9/22-9/25......4...89

1959 had three periods three days or more above 80.

1968 had two but it also had the longest streak for late September with 10.

I could have missed a few warm spells but there have not been many in recent years.

.............................................................................

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I don't see any warm spells on the horizon looking at the 12z ECM and 18z GFS...we have a cold front about to move through the area, and then as 850s warm Monday/Tuesday rain begins to move in. That's followed by a stronger cold front which ushers in the unseasonable chill over the Midwest and Plains. I could see highs staying in the 60s under clear skies later in the week.

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fFantastic day today with high of 76 here in cnj. Back from Florida enjoying the nice fresh air before heading back on tue. Week ahead looks to grow more humid/cloudy with rain chances tue into wed. Lots of onshore/southerly flow the next week or so with some stronger cold into the Mid West/GL. Suspect we see a stomger push of that cold by next mon (9/25) for a couple of days. Otherwise we're near or above normal with some warmer lows several nights in a back and forth between the southerly/onshore flow and northwest flow.

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Interesting precip stats. what a difference a year makes

2012

location...sep..last month (since aug 15)

EWR: 1.48 ....2.36

TTN: 1.35.....2.88

NYC: 0.60 ......2.39

LGA: 1.80.....3.70

2011 Aug 1 - Sep 15

EWR: 22.28

TTN: 18.80

NYC: 21.14

LGA: 18.88

TTN:

Those 2012 totals will probably be going up with the rain moving in on Tuesday.

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What a weekend weatherwise - highs yesterday and today of 73.5F and 74.1F respectively. Low last night of 48, another cool night on tap. We've certainly transitioned into a more autumn-like synoptic pattern w/ frequent, stronger cold fronts, lower 850mb temps behind FROPA, and daylight rapidly fading. Winter's right around the corner folks.

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