KEITH L.I Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 looks totally different than last September..blocking!!!..PV in Alaska is nowhere to be found..it's like night and day..hope it continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Was it 2009 and 2010 that LGA's first freeze occurred on the first accumulating snowfall of the season? I recall a few times where LGA didn't hit 32 until December. ...2008 was the last time NYC was below freezing in November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 looks totally different than last September..blocking!!!..PV in Alaska is nowhere to be found..it's like night and day..hope it continues! it's near the aleutians, similar to sept 06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 My low was 53.0F in Westchester. I had the heating on in the car yesterday when I started driving in Westchester, but then shut it off when I got to Brooklyn where I work (special ed teacher in East New York/Cypress Hills). My lows have been contiuing to get warmer by a few degrees each night. I had a low of 50 Degrees last night. Using this extrapolation, I should expect a low of around 53-54 Degrees tonight. It should be interesting to see how close to reality this extrapolation is. That is very nice that you are a Special Eduation teacher by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Interior central and southern NJ does radiate pretty well, especially in the Pine Barrens, because it's flat, rural, and it's soil is primarily sandy, which retains heat more poorly than normal soil. Lakehurst NAS, on the northeastern edge of it in Ocean County, dropped to 45 yesterday morning. The land surface absolutely is the reason for why places radiate better than others. I visit relatives in Ocean County, and when I leave during the night, the car thermometer's temperature drops significantly when I reach the Pine Barrens, and then the temperature increases after you leave the Pine Barrens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 That's an awesome pattern that is being depicted on both the ECMWF and GFS. If this were the same pattern a few months later, many snow lovers would be extremely overjoyed after last winter's dissapointment. Look at the Ridging into Greenland, indicative of a West-Based -NAO, and the ridging into BC indicative of a monster +PNA. The 12z ECMWF is even stronger and deeper with the trough on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 That's an awesome pattern that is being depicted on both the ECMWF and GFS. If this were the same pattern a few months later, many snow lovers would be extremely overjoyed after last winter's dissapointment. Look at the Ridging into Greenland, indicative of a West-Based -NAO, and the ridging into BC indicative of a monster +PNA. The 12z ECMWF is even stronger and deeper with the trough on the 12z run. that's more of a north atlantic ridge than true blocking. anything that amplifies will go west of us with a fast jet in eastern canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 The core of the cool air will be in the Midwest. Some of that will make it into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 that's more of a north atlantic ridge than true blocking. anything that amplifies will go west of us with a fast jet in eastern canada Ridging near Greenland is MUCH better, regardless if it is a true "block" or not, than a persistent PV induced trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Given the upcoming pattern, we'll probably see mostly seasonal temperatures with the occasional 1-2 day cooler shot of air. Also, it seems likely we get a lot more rain next week than this past gorgeous week. Perhaps the trough will move a bit further east in time and we start October on a chilly note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Yeah the truly cool air well below normal air never makes it here this time of year. Even with this cool shot EWR had a whole 3 below normal days, none with a departure greater than 5 degrees below normal and today was already back above. Given the upcoming pattern, we'll probably see mostly seasonal temperatures with the occasional 1-2 day cooler shot of air. Also, it seems likely we get a lot more rain next week than this past gorgeous week. Perhaps the trough will move a bit further east in time and we start October on a chilly note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Yeah the truly cool air well below normal air never makes it here this time of year. Even with this cool shot EWR had a whole 3 below normal days, none with a departure greater than 5 degrees below normal and today was already back above. This is a much colder pattern than the last one, although I think the largest negative departures will be in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region; the +PNA/-EPO block doesn't quite teleconnect to the same eastern trough as winter because the wavelengths are just beginning to elongate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 It's still relatively warm at the shore. Went to Jones Beach yesterday, best obs tend to indicate about 70-72F. Not bad for mid-September. It was definitely warm enough to swim! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 GFS is still showing cooler weather in the long range, thanks to the +PNA and -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Anybody interested in the poss high wind event on Tue well that's atleast what Upton says they say wind adv criteria on tues with poss high wind warning.. What does everyone think???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Late season warm spells...Will we get some late season heat this year?... following is a list of years with at least three straight days 80 or better for late Sept. and on...2005 had three form the 21st-23rd but it was the end of a long warm spell... Year..consecutive 80+ Max. 1881..9/23-9/28......6...91 1891..10/3-10/5......3...86 1895..9/20-9/23......4...97 1898..10/3-10/5......3...81 1905..9/28-9/30......3...88 1914..9/20-9/24......5...95 1920..9/23-9/26......4...88 1921..9/28-9/30......3...87 1922..9/30-10/3......4...88 1927..9/30-10/2......3...90 1930..9/20-9/26......7...87 1934..9/23-9/27......5...83 1941..9/21-9/23......3...91 1941..10/4-10/6......3...94 1946..9/25-9/27......3...83 1946..10/4-10/7......4...87 1948..9/27-9/29......3...84 1949..10/9-10/12....4...88 1950..10/1-10/3......3...86 1951..9/19-9/23......5...85 1954..10/1-10/4......4...86 1954..10/11-10/14..4...87 1959..9/21-9/24......4...90 1959..9/27-9/30......4...83 1959..10/4-10/6......3...88 1961..9/22-9/25......4...90 1965..9/21-9/23......3...88 1968..9/17-9/26....10...87 1968..10/1-10/3......3...85 1970..9/21-9/26......6...94 1972..9/25-9/27......3...86 1980..9/21-9/23......3...94 1984..9/23-9/25......3...86 2004..9/21-9/23......3...82 2007..9/25-9/27......3...87 2007..10/4-10/8......5...87 2010..9/22-9/25......4...89 1959 had three periods three days or more above 80. 1968 had two but it also had the longest streak for late September with 10. I could have missed a few warm spells but there have not been many in recent years. ............................................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 I don't see any warm spells on the horizon looking at the 12z ECM and 18z GFS...we have a cold front about to move through the area, and then as 850s warm Monday/Tuesday rain begins to move in. That's followed by a stronger cold front which ushers in the unseasonable chill over the Midwest and Plains. I could see highs staying in the 60s under clear skies later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 00Z Temperatures, Isotherms, wind barbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 going to enjoy another great beach weekend, it will be refreshing to not have to complain that its too hot on the beach..will be awesome to sit and catch some late summer rays without sweating after this mess on Tuesday it looks like the sensational weather returns...with temps in the low to mid 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Low to mid 60's this morning. What a beautiful morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 I had a high forecasted today from the NWS of around 77 Degrees, but it busted too high by around 5 Degrees. This may have some implications for the forecasted nighttime lows, as the northern half of NJ (and the Pine Barrens) may get back into the mid to upper 40s again for lows tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 65/42... Feels great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 fFantastic day today with high of 76 here in cnj. Back from Florida enjoying the nice fresh air before heading back on tue. Week ahead looks to grow more humid/cloudy with rain chances tue into wed. Lots of onshore/southerly flow the next week or so with some stronger cold into the Mid West/GL. Suspect we see a stomger push of that cold by next mon (9/25) for a couple of days. Otherwise we're near or above normal with some warmer lows several nights in a back and forth between the southerly/onshore flow and northwest flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Interesting precip stats. what a difference a year makes 2012 location...sep..last month (since aug 15) EWR: 1.48 ....2.36 TTN: 1.35.....2.88 NYC: 0.60 ......2.39 LGA: 1.80.....3.70 2011 Aug 1 - Sep 15 EWR: 22.28 TTN: 18.80 NYC: 21.14 LGA: 18.88 TTN: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Interesting precip stats. what a difference a year makes 2012 location...sep..last month (since aug 15) EWR: 1.48 ....2.36 TTN: 1.35.....2.88 NYC: 0.60 ......2.39 LGA: 1.80.....3.70 2011 Aug 1 - Sep 15 EWR: 22.28 TTN: 18.80 NYC: 21.14 LGA: 18.88 TTN: Those 2012 totals will probably be going up with the rain moving in on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 What a weekend weatherwise - highs yesterday and today of 73.5F and 74.1F respectively. Low last night of 48, another cool night on tap. We've certainly transitioned into a more autumn-like synoptic pattern w/ frequent, stronger cold fronts, lower 850mb temps behind FROPA, and daylight rapidly fading. Winter's right around the corner folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 49F up this way.. Hopefully we make it to 40 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 54/54 in Southern Somerset County. Will probably make it into the 40s again tonight. Had a low of 47 Degrees this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Reached a low of 45 Degrees this morning. Felt great. Feels warmer than yesterday already, with temperatures climbing up to 71 Degrees as of now, and the DP rising to the mid-50s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 77 for a high today after a low of 45...it seemed like it wanted to go higher but some high clouds seemed to derail that thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.