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September 2012 Observations and Discussions


NEG NAO

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that red area has some bust potential - doubt if we will see widespread 4 inch totals - probably just scattered locations in that red where training of storms occurs.............

Euro has the heaviest/most widespread rain coming through wed morning into the afternoon this week. It does appear after a mainly dry period the last 2 1/2 weeks we are going into a wetter pattern the next 10 days. Still looks overall warm - aided by some warmer night time lows this week. We'll see if we can add some more 90s on thu with enough sun.

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I hope you're not really using a GFS QPF output literally during a tropical rainfall episode?

well lets look at the 6Z NAM close to 1 - 1.25 inch NYC Metro

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/06znamp72072.gif

VS 6Z GFS 72 hr precip

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfsp72072.gif

1 - 1.50

actually not much different and not really too heavy BUT as I mentioned a couple of days ago when commenting on the HPC 5 day 4 inch prediction some areas that get caught under training cells which have been slow moving will get much more precip then the areas that are spared and radars this morning show that

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some of the usual suspects have a shot at 90 on Thursday. Friday should see mid 80s at least and humid through the weekend. Summer will not go out without a fight.

IIRC, most years in the past decade generally featured a pretty warm/humid first week of September. Labor Day's usually the last pool weekend, then we begin to turn the corner with much cooler nights (maybe a stray torch day again in late sept or early oct). But by and large, I consider summer to be over after the first 7-10 days of Sept. Just as in winter, I consider it to be over by about March 10th.

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We'll see. Lately it seems we get a cool shot/taste of fall and then return to summer like conditions for much of September. Maybe not 90s but wouldn't surprise me if we're still seeing upper 70 to mid 80s for at least 3 more weeks.

IIRC, most years in the past decade generally featured a pretty warm/humid first week of September. Labor Day's usually the last pool weekend, then we begin to turn the corner with much cooler nights (maybe a stray torch day again in late sept or early oct). But by and large, I consider summer to be over after the first 7-10 days of Sept. Just as in winter, I consider it to be over by about March 10th.

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We'll see. Lately it seems we get a cool shot/taste of fall and then return to summer like conditions for much of September. Maybe not 90s but wouldn't surprise me if we're still seeing upper 70 to mid 80s for at least 3 more weeks.

Some say the cool shot may stay, but it looks like it will go back in forth and no more real summer weather.

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