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NNE Fall 2012


ctsnowstorm628

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An exception to this was that great fluff bomb Burlington got 2 winters back I think. They got around three feet overnight while east of the mountains we got 1 to 2 inches. It was in one of those retrograding specials that I think was just after Christmas.

Correct - the retro-bomb that ate winter 2010, Jan 1-3. PF has posted the "methodology" in the past, but in simple terms, that event had circulation perfect for making snow at BTV, while CAR had rain and temps 25-30F above normal. In between were all kinds of semi- and non-winter wx. It essentially ended my winter during the wee hours of 1/3, when the 20F +SN I'd seen 3 hr earlier became 33F slushy rain. We had an advisory level snow around MLK Day, then the 4:1 mashed potatos during the NYC snowicane in Feb. I found it even worse than this past winter (though the boredom factor for 2011-12 is tops, or perhaps bottoms.)

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Some lows around here from 5:00 am

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS

PORTLAND CLEAR 41 39 93 CALM 30.06R

SANFORD CLEAR 34 30 86 SW5 30.04S

BAR HARBOR CLEAR 43 41 93 CALM 30.03R

WISCASSET CLEAR 37 34 89 CALM 30.06R

ROCKLAND CLEAR 39 37 93 W5 30.03S

FRYEBURG FOG 33 33 100 CALM 30.07R VSB 1/4

LEWISTONAUBURN CLEAR 36 34 93 CALM 30.06R

AUGUSTA CLEAR 45 41 86 CALM 30.05R

WATERVILLE CLEAR 39 36 87 CALM 30.00R

BANGOR CLEAR 39 36 89 CALM 30.02S

GREENVILLE N/A 44 38 79 CALM 29.98S

MILLINOCKET CLEAR 45 40 82 CALM 30.00R

HOULTON CLEAR 42 38 85 CALM 29.95S

PRESQUE ISLE CLEAR 43 36 75 S5 29.89R

FRENCHVILLE CLEAR 42 38 85 W6 29.92R

CARIBOU CLEAR 44 38 79 W6 29.93R

$$

SFM is like the TAN of SW ME.
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An exception to this was that great fluff bomb Burlington got 2 winters back I think. They got around three feet overnight while east of the mountains we got 1 to 2 inches. It was in one of those retrograding specials that I think was just after Christmas.

One of the most bizarre events we'll ever see...37.6" in 3 days at KBTV and there was 5" in the town of Stowe. Also, note the 9" in Plattsburgh on the lake's west shore, while 7 miles across the lake BTV is getting 3 feet. Luckily I didn't live here for that one and was still on the west side of the mountains digging out my car at my girlfriend's in Burlington.

"A record breaking continuous snowfall occurred from 902 AM EST January 2nd through 810 PM EST on January 3rd, producing a historic 33.1 inches of snow at Burlington, Vermont during this time period. The three day total snowfall at Burlington, Vermont was 37.6 inches from 1-3 January, 2010"

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An exception to this was that great fluff bomb Burlington got 2 winters back I think. They got around three feet overnight while east of the mountains we got 1 to 2 inches. It was in one of those retrograding specials that I think was just after Christmas.

But for the most part, this just about summarizes the winter in BTV... however it is still a good synoptic snow spot and has had some big years recently. But living there you need to be able to accept that even in a bad winter like last year, the hill and ski towns will still get a solid 40-50" more from events like this (last year BTV total was 37.7" and Stowe village at 730ft was 86.8" one county over).

And this is the low level radar... showing how sharp a line it is between absolutely nothing and a couple inches per hour. Radar struggles to see over the mountains at this level though.

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I'm willing to bet that Nor. VT and the ADK see a few flakes in the next 10 days. Pattern's been holding steady with a few lobes of energy rotating through some below average air. Looks favorable to some flakage before the month is out. No point getting excited however, pretty sure we'll ridge out for October...

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NWS gridpoint forecast fail...

LSC (1,099ft): Rain. Low around 57. South wind 12 to 17 mph becoming light after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Top of Burke Mountain (3,267ft): Rain. Steady temperature around 59. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 55 to 65 mph, with gusts as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Yeah, wind will be cranking on Burke, but not 105, and LSC will be sustained above 17 for sure, at least for a time.

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One of the most bizarre events we'll ever see...37.6" in 3 days at KBTV and there was 5" in the town of Stowe. Also, note the 9" in Plattsburgh on the lake's west shore, while 7 miles across the lake BTV is getting 3 feet. Luckily I didn't live here for that one and was still on the west side of the mountains digging out my car at my girlfriend's in Burlington.

"A record breaking continuous snowfall occurred from 902 AM EST January 2nd through 810 PM EST on January 3rd, producing a historic 33.1 inches of snow at Burlington, Vermont during this time period. The three day total snowfall at Burlington, Vermont was 37.6 inches from 1-3 January, 2010"

That has to be my favorite mesoscale event of yours that you've posted about on these boards. Do you have the numbers for the water equiv from that event? I would assume that the ASOS numbers got adjusted a bit upwards.
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NWS gridpoint forecast fail...

LSC (1,099ft): Rain. Low around 57. South wind 12 to 17 mph becoming light after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Top of Burke Mountain (3,267ft): Rain. Steady temperature around 59. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind 55 to 65 mph, with gusts as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Yeah, wind will be cranking on Burke, but not 105, and LSC will be sustained above 17 for sure, at least for a time.

I was clicking around on the peaks and there are some incredible wind gusts in that point and click product, haha.

All I know is this will be fun to monitor tomorrow evening:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/GMgetobext.php?sid=MMNV1&banner=gmap

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That has to be my favorite mesoscale event of yours that you've posted about on these boards. Do you have the numbers for the water equiv from that event? I would assume that the ASOS numbers got adjusted a bit upwards.

Its one of my favorite events, too... just because of how absurd it was. Some freak meso-scale event shattering all snowfall records since 1883. And it wasn't even forecast... the forecast was for like 4-8" of snow total. I think we had an Advisory up for the usual wind and snow with NW flow but no one or any model ever thought 3 feet would fall like that.

I'm not sure but the official climate report for January 2010 shows the following (and BTV's write up on the event says ratios were 30-40:1)...

January 1st...0.14"...2.3" snow

January 2nd... 0.70"...18.9" snow

January 3rd... 0.31"...16.4" snow

Total: 1.15" QPF and 37.6" snow for a SWE of 33:1.

However just a few days later on the 8th, the climate form has 0.08" of QPF resulting in 5.6" of snowfall for a 70:1 ratio... so I'm not sure on the quality control. Needless to say, I'd believe the 33:1 ratio of the big storm based on what I saw in Burlington that day... you could walk through thigh deep snow and feel very little resistance. From a clean-up standpoint, it was probably the lowest impact 3 feet of snow you could possibly get, but that's pretty normal for meso-scale snow in this area. We can get 10" of snow and the wake of one car will blow the street clean, haha.

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Its one of my favorite events, too... just because of how absurd it was. Some freak meso-scale event shattering all snowfall records since 1883. And it wasn't even forecast... the forecast was for like 4-8" of snow total. I think we had an Advisory up for the usual wind and snow with NW flow but no one or any model ever thought 3 feet would fall like that.

I'm not sure but the official climate report for January 2010 shows the following (and BTV's write up on the event says ratios were 30-40:1)...

January 1st...0.14"...2.3" snow

January 2nd... 0.70"...18.9" snow

January 3rd... 0.31"...16.4" snow

Total: 1.15" QPF and 37.6" snow for a SWE of 33:1.

However just a few days later on the 8th, the climate form has 0.08" of QPF resulting in 5.6" of snowfall for a 70:1 ratio... so I'm not sure on the quality control. Needless to say, I'd believe the 33:1 ratio of the big storm based on what I saw in Burlington that day... you could walk through thigh deep snow and feel very little resistance. From a clean-up standpoint, it was probably the lowest impact 3 feet of snow you could possibly get, but that's pretty normal for meso-scale snow in this area. We can get 10" of snow and the wake of one car will blow the street clean, haha.

Yeah...I saw the F6 numbers and the red flag went up in my mind. Those kinds of ratios are difficult to sustain with that much snow. I don't have a problem with 1/1 and I can live with 1/2, but those 1/3 numbers seem unbelievable to me. 53:1 ratio with over 16" of new snow? I'm just not sure how that's possible with even the largest of dendritic crystals except for smaller amounts. It was a bit windy at BTV that day too which would hurt totals.
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Yeah...I saw the F6 numbers and the red flag went up in my mind. Those kinds of ratios are difficult to sustain with that much snow. I don't have a problem with 1/1 and I can live with 1/2, but those 1/3 numbers seem unbelievable to me. 53:1 ratio with over 16" of new snow? I'm just not sure how that's possible with even the largest of dendritic crystals except for smaller amounts. It was a bit windy at BTV that day too which would hurt totals.

Yeah I don't believe 1/3 either... that's pushing it to get 16" of snow with 0.3" of QPF, lol.

I could buy the total 33:1 ratio though... that's up there but not uncommon in meso-scale stuff with great snow growth (lake effect, upslope, etc).

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Yeah I don't believe 1/3 either... that's pushing it to get 16" of snow with 0.3" of QPF, lol.

I could buy the total 33:1 ratio though... that's up there but not uncommon in meso-scale stuff with great snow growth (lake effect, upslope, etc).

Looks like the 0.31" was from the ASOS so with the fluff and winds there may have been some undercatch in the gauge even with an alter-type screen. Regardless it was a cool event. BTV is already beutiful and even better with 2-3ft dumped upon it. The BUF epic LES event about a decade ago was one of my fave mesoscale events as an outsider too.
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I'm willing to bet that Nor. VT and the ADK see a few flakes in the next 10 days. Pattern's been holding steady with a few lobes of energy rotating through some below average air. Looks favorable to some flakage before the month is out.

I saw this post from you yesterday adk, and then Roger Hill followed it right up early this morning with some comments in his broadcast – he’s seeing the potential for some snow as we head into next week based on what appears to be coming down the road. I didn’t see any related comments in the BTV NWS discussion, but we’re still about a week out. Foliage is currently on the early side, but it’s certainly time for photographers to get those cameras ready in case the peaks get dusted.

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Yeah your right about it being the only place for 100 miles of it's size...there's literally everything there that you could want or need. Everything from local organic food stores to Home Depot, Best Buy and WalMart. Plus the concentration of quality restaurants is pretty impressive for it's size.

The biggest draw to me is the general attitude and a lifestyle around outdoor recreation...everyone bikes, hikes, skis, kayaks, runs, etc. Plus with 5 colleges locally it's a real young and fit population. There's a reason BTV is usually on those Highest Quality of Life lists in like Mens Health magine or other similar lists.

Having lived in Burlington for many years, all I can do is endorse what PF and others have already added. With the Lake Champlain right there, the Adirondacks to the west, the White Mountains to the east, and the Northern Greens with 300+ inches of snow a year in your back yard – there’s a lot to like from an outdoor perspective. You’ve got all that coupled with a vibrant, picturesque city, so indeed there’s a reason Burlington is always coming up on those “Best Places to Live” lists.

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Up to 0.6" at the base of the mountain. Nice little eastern slope enhancement going on from SE flow, clearly seen on radar.

And with precipitation amounts...as 0.64" is on the SE side of Mansfield/Smugglers Notch area, while on the NW side they've only picked up 0.10-0.15" so far with downsloping SE winds.

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Actually looking at a larger radar view, the current precip pattern is pretty darn cool and very terrain oriented.

This is SE flow climo taking place right now, with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Allenson's area in the Orange Heights, the first 2,000ft+ terrain the SE flow runs into west of the upper CT river valley. Orange County does very well in the precip department with this wind flow. Then there's also a finger of enhancement running up the east side of the Green Mountain Spine, with a notable break in the precipitation over the VT side of the Champlain Valley on the downslope. Lastly, the SE flow then upslopes again on the east slope of the Adirondacks (I87) and NY side of the Champlain Valley.

BTV had been mentioning that the strong flow may make QPF forecasts difficult due to the localized terrain nuances around the forecast area... it'll be interesting to see when they map it out tomorrow how the QPF spread looks.

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