NNE Fall 2012

[wxjim207]

Beautiful morning this morning from the NEK of Vermont.... now the clouds have moved back in

[powderfreak]

So with the month almost gone, we continued the pattern of "wetness" after a September saw a switch from a dry summer.

Last 24 hours saw an additional 1.00" of liquid here in Stowe Village in southwest Lamoille County...bringing the 2-day storm total up to 1.40".

As usual, J.Spin along the Spine (and county borders) came in near tops in the state with 1.30" liquid over the last 24 hours, I think he has a total near 2" for this event.

So with October almost done, here's the precipitation total from the 3-local CoCoRAHS observers that I like to monitor...

Stowe 0.2SW...5.73" (East side of Mansfield)

Underhill 4.4NNE...6.38" (West side of Mansfield)

Waterbury 3.0NW...7.68" (J.Spin's on the Spine)

Looks like this month the west slope got slightly more QPF than the east side of Mansfield, but as usual, J.Spin takes come the prize for wettest location with almost 2" more than we saw one town north in Stowe. I absolutely love how localized that precip max is there literally on the geographic spine, regardless of the relatively low elevation, the mountains will squeeze out every last drop of QPF over his place.

[N. OF PIKE]

euro looks good N of 89 in the greens fri pm thru sunday. by sunday the N NH (connecticut lake ) area and NW maine look to get in on action nicely as well.

[J.Spin]

So with the month almost gone, we continued the pattern of "wetness" after a September saw a switch from a dry summer.

As usual, J.Spin along the Spine (and county borders) came in near tops in the state with 1.30" liquid over the last 24 hours, I think he has a total near 2" for this event.

Yeah, I’d recorded 1 ¾“ for this event through yesterday, and I found another 0.19” in the gauge this morning, so that’s definitely in the 2” range for the event. Since I’m not doing midnight readings, I typically add the precipitation into the month in which I actually take the reading, thus this morning’s 0.19” will go into November, and October will end up with 7.68” as you mentioned. This has been the wettest month of the calendar year by more than 2 inches, and actually the wettest in over a year (August of last year was over 9 inches due to Irene). Anyway, I really like the moist trend a lot as the weather continues to get colder and colder. If we’ve got moisture, the Northern Greens will make their snow.

Also, I just got the notice today that our CoCoRaHS 2012 water year analyses are complete, so I’m sure you’ll enjoy chewing on those data:

http://www.cocorahs....te=VT&year=2012

The data show 44.18” for my location, which is of course way down from the 70”+ we had for the 2011 water year. I also like that CoCoRaHS totals the number of days in which we receive accumulating snow – I have to add in the trace numbers if I want those included, but that’s pretty quick. Not surprisingly, the number of snowy days for our location was down this past water year, with 75 days having a trace or more of snowfall, vs. 99 days the year before.

[ctsnowstorm628]

12z GFS has some potential at 500mb for mid week next week. Weird phasing at H5 with that second shortwave coming around that trough at like 132h which leads to another retrograding scenario.

[powderfreak]

Also, I just got the notice today that our CoCoRaHS 2012 water year analyses are complete, so I’m sure you’ll enjoy chewing on those data:

http://www.cocorahs....te=VT&year=2012

The data show 44.18” for my location, which is of course way down from the 70”+ we had for the 2011 water year. I also like that CoCoRaHS totals the number of days in which we receive accumulating snow – I have to add in the trace numbers if I want those included, but that’s pretty quick. Not surprisingly, the number of snowy days for our location was down this past water year, with 75 days having a trace or more of snowfall, vs. 99 days the year before.

Thanks for posting that link dude! I definitely will spend some time going through that. It looks like my favorite Stowe Village guy at 730ft had 39.7" of liquid this year, so you got about 5" on us during the year. I think the numbers make sense and if we had a station near say the Matterhorn on RT108 I bet it would be in your ball park. I see spots like Jerhico had 38" and Underhill with 42", so we were in the same ballpark as the west side...I'm sure the little differences are from how close to the spine you are, as Jerhico is about the same distance from the spine as Stowe Village on the east side, and Underhill NW is right up against the mountain.

I always love this stuff and will have to take a closer look later at home.

[adk]

Not sure if PF agrees but the signal for some upslope snow is growing to "solid" level. Looks like from Friday evening thru sunday the conditions supporting upslope snow will be present. The temps are going to make a mega pow (-4 to -6c at 850) but with a 8c temp diff from the surface possible, and a steady NW winds with saturation up thru 700mb at times, that's enough to make snow happen along the spine. Totals look to be- based on the high res- in the 2-4 range.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Not sure if PF agrees but the signal for some upslope snow is growing to "solid" level. Looks like from Friday evening thru sunday the conditions supporting upslope snow will be present. The temps are going to make a mega pow (-4 to -6c at 850) but with a 8c temp diff from the surface possible, and a steady NW winds with saturation up thru 700mb at times, that's enough to make snow happen along the spine. Totals look to be- based on the high res- in the 2-4 range.

It will snow on the spine this weekend. Cross barrier flow is weak-moderate, with in-cloud temps near -6C, which is marginal for a healthy upslope event. 1000-700mb RH is juicy, so that may help negate some other negative aspects with this forecast.

Wouldn't surprise me if Mansfield picked up 3-6" while they stay below 32F all day Saturday, while "lower" elevations pick up lower amounts (above 2k). I think the valley floor will even see a flake or two at some point Saturday night.

[powderfreak]

Not sure if PF agrees but the signal for some upslope snow is growing to "solid" level. Looks like from Friday evening thru sunday the conditions supporting upslope snow will be present. The temps are going to make a mega pow (-4 to -6c at 850) but with a 8c temp diff from the surface possible, and a steady NW winds with saturation up thru 700mb at times, that's enough to make snow happen along the spine. Totals look to be- based on the high res- in the 2-4 range.

Agreed... was talking with a mutual friend of ours about it earlier today. I could see anything from 2-6" but measuring and time frames will make it harder to come up with a "total." I'm not sure I see a 12 hour period that really stands out for 3-4", but its not really that hard for the northern Spine summits to come up with a dusting-2" every 12 hours for like 3 or 4 periods.

[powderfreak]

It will snow on the spine this weekend. Cross barrier flow is weak-moderate, with in-cloud temps near -6C, which is marginal for a healthy upslope event. 1000-700mb RH is juicy, so that may help negate some other negative aspects with this forecast.

Wouldn't surprise me if Mansfield picked up 3-6" while they stay below 32F all day Saturday, while "lower" elevations pick up lower amounts (above 2k). I think the valley floor will even see a flake or two at some point Saturday night.

Yeah the NAM shows the classic upslope QPF signal... its not really the QPF amounts, so much as it just shows measurable in the upslope regions every single panel. It actually ends up with 0.67" QPF at Jay Peak by the end of the weekend, so that's fairly significant.

There are two main periods of enhancement...Friday night (top sequence) and Saturday Night (bottom sequence).

Saturday night into Sunday morning has me intrigued because there is a good bit of moisture advecting in (like a second wave of moisture) and a strong vort max swinging through. The timing overnight is good because upslope tends to get much better organized at night, while daytime heating causes a more cellular and graupel-like precipitation this time of year. I think that time period has the best chance to accumulate a bit more rapidly.

[J.Spin]

Yeah the NAM shows the classic upslope QPF signal... its not really the QPF amounts, so much as it just shows measurable in the upslope regions every single panel. It actually ends up with 0.67" QPF at Jay Peak by the end of the weekend, so that's fairly significant.

There are two main periods of enhancement...Friday night (top sequence) and Saturday Night (bottom sequence).

Saturday night into Sunday morning has me intrigued because there is a good bit of moisture advecting in (like a second wave of moisture) and a strong vort max swinging through. The timing overnight is good because upslope tends to get much better organized at night, while daytime heating causes a more cellular and graupel-like precipitation this time of year. I think that time period has the best chance to accumulate a bit more rapidly.

I didn’t know if you were going to mention it here, so I responded in the other thread, but thanks for keeping tabs on this. I didn’t head out for that first October event, so I’ll certainly be eyeing the potential for Sunday if those two periods of enhancement come through.

[powderfreak]

Snowed last night... only about an inch or so but the snow level is dropping.

Accumulating level is around 2,800ft or so from what I can see.

28F at 3,950ft

38F at 1,550ft

Snowmaking crews are prepping... game on later.

[Mad River]

Snowed last night... only about an inch or so but the snow level is dropping.

Accumulating level is around 2,800ft or so from what I can see.

28F at 3,950ft

38F at 1,550ft

Snowmaking crews are prepping... game on later.

Good weather stretch coming up for snowmaking. Hopefully the potential snow next week pans out too. Crossing fingers for some early season turns. Nothing like hiking up the mountain before the lifts are running and getting powder run after powder run under your belt. Thanks for all the updates.

[J.Spin]

Snowed last night... only about an inch or so but the snow level is dropping.

Accumulating level is around 2,800ft or so from what I can see.

Finally got a break from other activities and had a chance to look outside – the cloud ceiling has risen a bit up to ~3,500’ and I can see a snow line in the Northern Greens – it looks to be in the 2,500’ to 3,000’ range, jiving nicely with your report. I wasn’t sure if it was just rime from down here, but it sounds like it’s snow, so the first snowfall of November is in the books. The northern portion of the Central Greens south of I-89 is hidden because there’s some snow currently falling there.

[powderfreak]

Finally got a break from other activities and had a chance to look outside – the cloud ceiling has risen a bit up to ~3,500’ and I can see a snow line in the Northern Greens – it looks to be in the 2,500’ to 3,000’ range, jiving nicely with your report. I wasn’t sure if it was just rime from down here, but it sounds like it’s snow, so the first snowfall of November is in the books. The northern portion of the Central Greens south of I-89 is hidden because there’s some snow currently falling there.

Its definitely snow... a solid 1-2".

Snow level is 3,000ft right now.

[adk]

Looking good...I think something in that "6" range when we take a measurement monday am is reasonable.

Good think I'm headed to the ADK. (I suck).

[klw]

It will be interesting what happens in the Greens and IMBY when/if the line in NYS makes it over this way.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Looking good...I think something in that "6" range when we take a measurement monday am is reasonable.

Good think I'm headed to the ADK. (I suck).

Hi-res 4km NAM prints out over 2" QPF for the northern Spine by Sunday evening. Probably over done, but with decent LL moisture and cross barrier flow, I wouldn't be surprised to see 6-12" amounts at the summits, especially after 1-2" last night when I only thought they'd see a dusting to an inch.

[powderfreak]

Hi-res 4km NAM prints out over 2" QPF for the northern Spine by Sunday evening. Probably over done, but with decent LL moisture and cross barrier flow, I wouldn't be surprised to see 6-12" amounts at the summits, especially after 1-2" last night when I only thought they'd see a dusting to an inch.

2.0" of QPF!? I'm on my phone so can't really check anything, but yesterday it was showing like an inch by Sunday evening.

It's probably over done but so hard to tell. Sometimes I think it's too high and then Mansfield gets 20" of grauple and 3" QPF haha. So hard to tell exactly. Although the synoptic set up just doesn't look to support anywhere near that. Usually for 2" QPF upslope we need a vertically stacked low over FVE pinwheeling moisture around...not some disjointed or elongated low pressure.

[ctsnowstorm628]

2.0" of QPF!? I'm on my phone so can't really check anything, but yesterday it was showing like an inch by Sunday evening.

It's probably over done but so hard to tell. Sometimes I think it's too high and then Mansfield gets 20" of grauple and 3" QPF haha. So hard to tell exactly. Although the synoptic set up just doesn't look to support anywhere near that. Usually for 2" QPF upslope we need a vertically stacked low over FVE pinwheeling moisture around...not some disjointed or elongated low pressure.

I can't post SV graphics on here, but yeah haha Maybe i can email/text you? haha

[ctsnowstorm628]

18z 4km NAM rolling in now...and it HAMMERS Stowe to Jay. 1.25" by tomorrow afternoon.

[N. OF PIKE]

18z 4km NAM rolling in now...and it HAMMERS Stowe to Jay. 1.25" by tomorrow afternoon.

i bet PF has 3 inches new on the picnic tables by noon and another 6 on top of that by sunday noon.

[powderfreak]

Nice AFD update by BTV...and I'm pretty sure it's flurrying around 1000ft in Stowe near Mansfield. That bodes well if flakes are this low at 7pm. Cold out too.

as of 651 PM EDT Friday...upper level low continues to sit and spin near the region creating cyclonic flow aloft and a favorable set-up for some orographic precipitation overnight. Band of rain and higher elevation snow showers is now gradually pushing through eastern New York and northwestern Vermont as a piece of upper level energy pushes southward from Canada. Precipitation overnight is expected to become more upslope oriented as northwest flow increases overnight. NAM forecast soundings suggest blocked northwest flow develops overnight with wind speeds on the order of 10-20 knots just off the surface. This will lead to increased precipitation chances on the western slopes of the Green Mountains as well as in the northern Adirondack Mountains...and to a lesser extent the higher elevations of the Northeast Kingdom. With Froude numbers prognosticated to drop to around 0.50 or lower...anticipating light rain to back up even into portions of the Champlain Valley overnight. Also with Lake Champlain water temperatures still around 55f and 850 mb temperatures of -4c or lower...could see some weak lake enhancement of showers. Freezing levels this evening are around 2500-3000 feet...but are expected to lower to around 1500 feet by midnight and even as low as 1000 feet by morning. Thus while the larger valleys will likely remain rain...some changeover to at least a little snow is anticipated for areas just outside of these regions. Any accumulations by morning will be light...generally a dusting to 1 inch above 1500 feet and up to 2 inches in the highest elevations along The Spine of the Green Mountains.

[powderfreak]

Yeah it's definitely a very fine light snow at 37F.

[J.Spin]

Yeah it's definitely a very fine light snow at 37F.

Heh PF, you made me go look based on your comment in the other thread, and it’s mostly rain out there, but I caught some flakes as well – very tiny flakes and raindrops at this point, almost mist. If this is happening now, I wouldn’t be surprised to see more by morning. Even down here the point and click is calling for accumulations now:

• Tonight Rain showers likely before 4am, then rain and snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 8 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  
• Saturday Snow showers likely before 8am, then rain and snow showers likely between 8am and 9am, then a chance of rain showers after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  
• Saturday Night A chance of rain showers before 10pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 10pm and 2am, then a chance of snow showers after 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind around 9 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
  
• Sunday A chance of rain and snow showers before 11am, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Northwest wind 7 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
  

Let’s see what happens when that incoming slug of moisture hits us:

[powderfreak]

Yeah J.Spin it'll be real interesting when that band moves in. Been watching it for a while and it's moving real slow. I think that could be snow to the mountain valley floors but we'll see.

At 1000ft near the Matterhorn it's definitely -SN while down near home at 750ft it's more of a mist/snow/drizzle like you described.

I'm off work at 11pm so I may take a drive up the road to the ski area if that band of precip moves in...curious how it all plays out tonight.

BTV's zone forecast has D-1" tonight and another D-1" tomorrow morning.

[N. OF PIKE]

Yeah J.Spin it'll be real interesting when that band moves in. Been watching it for a while and it's moving real slow. I think that could be snow to the mountain valley floors but we'll see.

At 1000ft near the Matterhorn it's definitely -SN while down near home at 750ft it's more of a mist/snow/drizzle like you described.

I'm off work at 11pm so I may take a drive up the road to the ski area if that band of precip moves in...curious how it all plays out tonight.

BTV's zone forecast has D-1" tonight and another D-1" tomorrow morning.

looks like as of midnite 2k is the accumulating elevation line.

32 at bolton , and 32 at mansfield meso west in underhill

not much at all east of spine yet

[ctsnowstorm628]

0z gfs is awesome. Significant snowfall to the valley floor. If only it'd come true.

That's the best case scenario up this way for next week.

Edit: 0z euro offers at solid 3-6" for most of VT/northern NH with more above 2,000ft as well.

[J.Spin]

There’s no accumulation to report down at this elevation (495') with temperatures in the 37-38F range, but the precipitation continues to roll in with 0.16” in the bucket as of 7:00 A.M. this morning:

You know it’s accumulating at elevation though, with Mt. Mansfield at 26 F at 3,950’, and 30 F at 2,236’, and 30.9 F at Bolton’s 2,100’ station. At the Mt. Mansfield Stake, yesterday afternoon’s measurement came in at 1.5 inches; I’d expect that to go up today if the temperature stays below freezing as the forecast suggests.

[mreaves]

There’s no accumulation to report down at this elevation (495') with temperatures in the 37-38F range, but the precipitation continues to roll in with 0.16” in the bucket as of 7:00 A.M. this morning:

You know it’s accumulating at elevation though, with Mt. Mansfield at 26 F at 3,950’, and 30 F at 2,236’, and 30.9 F at Bolton’s 2,100’ station. At the Mt. Mansfield Stake, yesterday afternoon’s measurement came in at 1.5 inches; I’d expect that to go up today if the temperature stays below freezing as the forecast suggests.

All driven by orographics. Not even a sprinkle where I am, away from the spine.