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NNE Fall 2012


ctsnowstorm628

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Turned out to be a beautiful day.

Indeed, after just writing last night about how things looked bleak for this weekend, today turned out to be gorgeous. We had soccer with the boys this morning, but the weather stayed nice right through the afternoon and finally allowed me to get some mowing done and grab those fallen leaves with the bagger. Of course, wouldn’t you know it, even with partly cloudy skies we still had a decent shower come through that got things wet enough that I had to stop mowing a little earlier than daylight would have allowed. It was a great day though, and it was nice to see so much sun.

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J.Spin...congrats your 2.5"+ is tops in the state this morning on CoCoRAHS! Living between the Spine really maximizes that QPF.

In fact though the Stowe and Waterbury area got drenched in this event, with both towns making up 5 of the top 9 precipitation reports in the state this morning on CoCoRAHS.

Looks like 1.8-2.0" here in Stowe.

Yeah, the Stowe/Waterbury area got a good soaking; it’s going to be fun when these are snow!

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Indeed, after just writing last night about how things looked bleak for this weekend, today turned out to be gorgeous. We had soccer with the boys this morning, but the weather stayed nice right through the afternoon and finally allowed me to get some mowing done and grab those fallen leaves with the bagger. Of course, wouldn’t you know it, even with partly cloudy skies we still had a decent shower come through that got things wet enough that I had to stop mowing a little earlier than daylight would have allowed. It was a great day though, and it was nice to see so much sun.

I was down at the Waterbury Reservoir Restaurant and Tap Room earlier this evening for a couple beers with friends, and right when we came out that shower was just moving off to the NE, producing one of the most stunning double rainbows I've ever seen. The showers moving NE up the Worcesters with the sun setting behind to the SW...set-up an awesome wall-to-wall double rainbow. I stopped at Shaws to pick up some groceries and there were a ton of people in the parking lot with cameras and cell phones out taking pictures of the rainbows over the mountains. Unfortunately, I didn't have the camera with me, but wow what a sight.

As I drove back to Stowe it was evident it must've been a decent shower based on the fresh puddles, but it was such a great Saturday with temps in the upper 60s and full sunshine for a good portion of the day (minus the sunset showers).

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I was down at the Waterbury Reservoir Restaurant and Tap Room earlier this evening for a couple beers with friends, and right when we came out that shower was just moving off to the NE, producing one of the most stunning double rainbows I've ever seen. The showers moving NE up the Worcesters with the sun setting behind to the SW...set-up an awesome wall-to-wall double rainbow. I stopped at Shaws to pick up some groceries and there were a ton of people in the parking lot with cameras and cell phones out taking pictures of the rainbows over the mountains. Unfortunately, I didn't have the camera with me, but wow what a sight.

We saw that rainbow as well – stunning!

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Was that NEK dry zone (like really dry in the upper Valley along the NH/VT border) due to downsloping?

I would guess so. That kind of pattern is pretty common with a SE fetch around here.

Irene was a classic example. The immediate CT valley from around Bradford, VT on northward only had +/- 2" whereas here, twelve miles away, 700' higher and open to the SE, we had almost 7".

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Hey everyone been so busy with Met courses I haven't chimed in but I will tell ya something. We seriously need mother nature to bring in some snow since all the leaves are gone. Cloudy and Cool with no leaves is very blah! However, she doesn't agree and we are stuck in this same dull pattern. At least we broke through some of the clouds today. At about 1815z the 1km GOES 13 Visible was pretty cool looking with the wave clouds over Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and parts of Massachusetts.

post-7965-0-95012400-1350946086_thumb.pn

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Beautiful morning out there... just now starting to get some milky high clouds over the area. Awesome sunshine early though.

Time to get out and enjoy the dry day.

36F at 4,000ft

48F at office level 1,550ft

This is the weather ski areas love this time of year for preparing for the upcoming season.

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All's quiet, eh dudes?

No worries, it's been good weather for getting in the winter's worth of firewood and other seasonal chores.

Heavy heavy frost this moring & down to 28F under clear skies.

Sun still below the hills at 7:10am...

Sandy?

Down to 28° at home this morning too. All the activity has been in the Sandy thread. Our little ol' NNE thread is at risk of being buried.

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I've been mixing up SandyWatch time with going through some good winter times... I found this AFD on J.Spin's webpage and can't wait for these days to return, lol:

This is an OLD winter AFD... looking forward to these times again. Love when BTV talks dirty like the last sentence, lol.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 152 PM EST MONDAY...NO HUGE CHANGES IN THE OVERALL EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE A SEMI-PERSISTANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCKED INTO PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. WITHIN THE TROUGH PATTERN, IT LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN, DEVELOP INTO STRONGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS AND THEN GET KICKED OUT A COUPLE OF DAYS LATER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMES IN. IN THE END, IT WILL MEAN FOR US AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY, SEASONABLY COLD, AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DAY AFTER DAY. HUNG CLOSE TO GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS - WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO LOOKING AT 30-40% POPS EACH DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, THOUGH HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND CLOSER TO 20% IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. LOW/MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL ENSURE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE DAY AFTER DAY. I`LL BE THE FIRST TO ADMIT THAT PERHAPS 100% POPS SHOULD BE PAINTED IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN EACH DAY, BUT COULDN`T QUITE DO IT THIS FAR OUT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SCENARIO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIME OR TWO OF A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS THOSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS SPIN UP AND AFFECT THE AREA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO STREAM INTO NORTHERN NY AT TIMES. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THOSE PARTICULAR SITUATIONS IS WAY TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT. REGARDLESS, WITH THIS KIND OF PATTERN, I EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FAVORED WEST/NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES FOR THE PERIOD. YES, WE AGAIN MAY MEASURE IN FEET IN SOME HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LIKE MT MANSFIELD AND JAY PEAK.

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29F for a low...already up to 50/32 though as we make a run for 60.

I can't wait till you get your first SWFE there in Plymouth as a welcome to NNE... when your hometown gets a couple crusty inches of SN/IP/ZR/RN and you see 7-10" of almost all snow, changing over to a freezing mist right as the best precip moves out of the area.

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I've been mixing up SandyWatch time with going through some good winter times... I found this AFD on J.Spin's webpage and can't wait for these days to return, lol:

This is an OLD winter AFD... looking forward to these times again. Love when BTV talks dirty like the last sentence, lol.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 152 PM EST MONDAY...NO HUGE CHANGES IN THE OVERALL EXPECTED SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE A SEMI-PERSISTANT UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LOCKED INTO PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. WITHIN THE TROUGH PATTERN, IT LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN, DEVELOP INTO STRONGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS AND THEN GET KICKED OUT A COUPLE OF DAYS LATER AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMES IN. IN THE END, IT WILL MEAN FOR US AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDY, SEASONABLY COLD, AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DAY AFTER DAY. HUNG CLOSE TO GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCE FOR POPS - WHICH WAS SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGY. SO LOOKING AT 30-40% POPS EACH DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, THOUGH HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND CLOSER TO 20% IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. LOW/MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL ENSURE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE DAY AFTER DAY. I`LL BE THE FIRST TO ADMIT THAT PERHAPS 100% POPS SHOULD BE PAINTED IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN EACH DAY, BUT COULDN`T QUITE DO IT THIS FAR OUT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SCENARIO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIME OR TWO OF A MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT AS THOSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS SPIN UP AND AFFECT THE AREA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME LAKE EFFECT OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO STREAM INTO NORTHERN NY AT TIMES. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THOSE PARTICULAR SITUATIONS IS WAY TOO DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT, SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT. REGARDLESS, WITH THIS KIND OF PATTERN, I EXPECT SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FAVORED WEST/NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES FOR THE PERIOD. YES, WE AGAIN MAY MEASURE IN FEET IN SOME HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LIKE MT MANSFIELD AND JAY PEAK.

Man PF, I quickly saw your post with that bolded part at the end and thought it had something to do with that hybrid storm next week… but then I saw that it was an AFD from some other time. Unfortunately, after hearing the latest forecasts, it doesn’t sound like that storm holds much chance of snow for NNE. Roger Hill did mention the potential for snow in the Central Appalachians though.

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Man PF, I quickly saw your post with that bolded part at the end and thought it had something to do with that hybrid storm next week… but then I saw that it was an AFD from some other time. Unfortunately, after hearing the latest forecasts, it doesn’t sound like that storm holds much chance of snow for NNE. Roger Hill did mention the potential for snow in the Central Appalachians though.

potentially crippling snow at that. Remember, down there many many trees still have their leaves. If this rolls in as some models show, higher elevations of western MD, SW PA, W Va could see several feet of heavy snow over a short period of time.

Up here, I'm pretty much split between the EURO solution which is a phased landfalling subtropical low plowing into NJ/LI and the GFS which shows the development/recapture of a second powerful low...

Regardless I think Mon-Wed am of next week is going to be down right wet.

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Chilly morning though we did not repeat yesterday's frost.

As for Sandy I am expecting her to hit Asbury Park for non- meteorological reasons that would be obvious to any Springsteen fan, though how we can work in the 4th of July into the storm's equation is past me.

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Chilly morning though we did not repeat yesterday's frost.

As for Sandy I am expecting her to his Asbury Park for non- meteorological reasons that would be obvious to any Springsteen fan, though how we can work in the 4th of July into the storm's equation is past me.

LOL, I was thinking of that song too. I'm not a huge Springsteen fan but I do love Asbury Park. Great record.

And the town may just be under the gun itself, of course. ;)

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Another mid-20s morning, though the frost was thicker yesterday.

Early next week gets more and more interesting. Fortunately, almost all our logging jobs have closed for fall mud season, but a huge soaking could take out some water crossings. The beavers are working overtime in plugging culverts and bridges, even more this year, it seems, than their usual frantic October pace. We'll get the worst spots cleared, though sometimes the engineer-rodents can undo our efforts in a few hours.

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Hey Guys. Any chance we see snow out of this girl? I guess its that time of the year again where the pains like me come knocking back around. I apologize to be late to the party here.

Looking more and more like we'll be on the warm side of the system. If so, any snow would come on the back side, and probably be limited to higher elevations.

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