tamarack Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Another frosty morning. I think the quake epicenter (4.6, revised this AM to 4.0) was only a few miles from Eric's BY. We felt nothing at my place, and neither our Lab nor the 2 cats reacted at all, and critters usually sense these things. Friends in Farmington reported feeling the quake, however. Only time we actually felt a quake was January 1982 in Ft.Kent, when the shaking and noise woke us that Sat morning. A number of people in the CAR/PQI area called their fire departments, as the rumble sounded similar to that from a chimney fire. Our foundation suffered a number of cracks, which became springtime water entries. The 5.9 epicenter was in western NB, and there was a high-5 aftershock the following Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 28 with heavy heavy frost this morn. Low of 28.0F here. Heavyyy frost. Good stuff. 28F here as well...and guess what? There was heavy frost. haha. Widespread 25-30F across VT last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Another frosty morning. I think the quake epicenter (4.6, revised this AM to 4.0) was only a few miles from Eric's BY. We felt nothing at my place, and neither our Lab nor the 2 cats reacted at all, and critters usually sense these things. Friends in Farmington reported feeling the quake, however. Only time we actually felt a quake was January 1982 in Ft.Kent, when the shaking and noise woke us that Sat morning. A number of people in the CAR/PQI area called their fire departments, as the rumble sounded similar to that from a chimney fire. Our foundation suffered a number of cracks, which became springtime water entries. The 5.9 epicenter was in western NB, and there was a high-5 aftershock the following Monday. Yes, very close to my backyard. Mapping the coordinates it was about 7 miles away . I was on the road about five miles from the epicenter but didn't know it happened. A co-worker lives maybe two miles from the epicenter. She said there was a loud bang, a bunch of rumbling then another loud bang ... thought their newly-installed boiler had exploded. She had a lot of stuff fall of shelves and whatnot. Would've been cool to be outside during it, which had it occured three minutes earlier I would have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 17, 2012 Share Posted October 17, 2012 Awesome day in NNE...full sunshine and nice temps in the valleys. Up at elevation though winter is definitely slowly moving in. The ground today was frozen solid above 3,000ft and there was left-over snow/ice from the other day. Even though it was almost 40F, in the shade it still felt near freezing on the north-facing slope. Starting to freeze up. Hiking got pretty slick with a layer of frozen water on everything and a skiff of snow. And a dusting of snow remains on the upper elevation, north facing ski trails. This is the time of year when some of these north-facing spots never see sunlight and are always in the shadow.... even a dusting of snow can last for a long time. Its like a mini-Gods Country in NNE...always below freezing and always has snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Roger Hill isn’t seeing anything else in terms of snow until next week, but he’s keeping an eye on the 24th through 26th period, where there could be another round of snow that reaches down to the valleys. Listening to Roger’s updated forecast from this morning, he now says to watch out for Sunday into Monday for another round of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Big surprise we only dropped to 34.6F here at Lyndon State, VT..... Check out this morning's time lapse from today so far East Cam http://meteorology.lyndonstate.edu/content/weather/data_anim_archive.php North Cam http://meteorology.lyndonstate.edu/content/weather/data_anim2_archive.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Listening to Roger’s updated forecast from this morning, he now says to watch out for Sunday into Monday for another round of snow. Yeah BTV didn't specifically mention snow but they are already highlighting a potential upslope precip event later in the weekend...WNW flow enhancement from Sat night through Sunday night: "For Saturday night...upper low will be tracking over the north country with winds aloft and at the surface trending west-northwest supporting upslope showers along the western facing slopes. This enhancement could be even stronger for Sunday/Sunday night given low proximity off the 00z European model (ecmwf)...but will continue to run with chance probability of precipitation for now. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Yeah BTV didn't specifically mention snow but they are already highlighting a potential upslope precip event later in the weekend...WNW flow enhancement from Sat night through Sunday night: "For Saturday night...upper low will be tracking over the north country with winds aloft and at the surface trending west-northwest supporting upslope showers along the western facing slopes. This enhancement could be even stronger for Sunday/Sunday night given low proximity off the 00z European model (ecmwf)...but will continue to run with chance probability of precipitation for now. " There is a pretty good TROWAL progged to wrap around on the euro and slam the mtns with precip, but the cold air is questionable. Might be at the very top of Mansfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 There is a pretty good TROWAL progged to wrap around on the euro and slam the mtns with precip, but the cold air is questionable. Might be at the very top of Mansfield. Yeah I didn't see anything that got me too excited about snow but definitely looks like a setup where the models will under-forecast QPF locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Yeah I didn't see anything that got me too excited about snow but definitely looks like a setup where the models will under-forecast QPF locally. I agree. I think there will abundant "misty-rainy" precip across the ADK and Greens sunday night...just don't know if we'll be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 I agree. I think there will abundant "misty-rainy" precip across the ADK and Greens sunday night...just don't know if we'll be cold enough. Yeah not looking cold enough on any model. Maybe some catpaws falling at 34F at the top of Marcy at over 5,000ft? haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2012 Share Posted October 18, 2012 Yeah not looking cold enough on any model. Maybe some catpaws falling at 34F at the top of Marcy at over 5,000ft? haha. Well if that wrap around is deep enough, it could be a paste job at the top. I could see that....if the wrap around is sufficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Yeah not looking cold enough on any model. Maybe some catpaws falling at 34F at the top of Marcy at over 5,000ft? haha. Oh on Marcy there will be snow. The core of the high peaks there- Marcy, Haystack and Basin are always cold. The ground there is frozen already with some light snow in the ground. Anything that falls will stick. I'm sure above 4800 feet there will be snow in the ADK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 I plan to be at 5k on Sunday afternoon, but alas the snow appears to be a Sunday night event. Maybe I'll get some nice 37F rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 ~1.50" so far and heavy rain continues. Several PWS spots around here are around 1.50-1.75" range based on the Wunderground observations. BTV just put up a 0.4" in one hour, but in general the rain has been between 0.1-0.25"/hr... just a steady, drenching rain over the last 9-10 hours. Plenty of wind just off the deck for moisture advection though... Mansfield has been seeing sustained winds around 50mph with gusts over 70mph. I bet it would be pretty wild up there at the top of the ski area lifts. Perhaps the strong ESE winds at 50-75mph are the reason why the Mansfield Co-Op came in with a laughable rainfall total through 5pm... 0.18". In reality they've probably averaged 0.18" for the last 10 hours. The ski area base is at 1.65" and rising. Wind must be blowing all the rain past the measuring can. DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 527 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012 STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW 24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE ...VERMONT... MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.18 49 38 46 LIGHT FOG 0.0 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Heavy rain complete with a couple lightning flashes/thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Perhaps the strong ESE winds at 50-75mph are the reason why the Mansfield Co-Op came in with a laughable rainfall total through 5pm... 0.18". In reality they've probably averaged 0.18" for the last 10 hours. The ski area base is at 1.65" and rising. Wind must be blowing all the rain past the measuring can. That’s too bad that they’re not getting a good record of this event at the summit, it would be a nice one to see based on what the lower elevations are picking up. I checked our rain gauge here at the house and it was at 2.51” as of ~9:00 P.M. It’s mostly tapered off to showers now, but that’s already a decent total from this event. We’ve had just three days without measurable precipitation this month, and almost six inches of liquid, so indeed with regard to my post below from back on August 23rd, I’d say that a precipitation switch has been flipped. If this level of precipitation sticks around going forward, the Northern Greens will definitely be able to do their thing. I’ve been trying to get that “last” mowing of the lawn in for 6 or 7 weeks now, and with the current forecast it doesn’t appear as though it’s going to be this weekend. That window is rapidly closing too, the sun is already getting too weak to dry things out very quickly, and in a few weeks the snowpack could be down. It’s been quite a change in the availability of precipitation, and it’s neat to look back at thoughts from August when we were in such a different weather regime: It’s like Powderfreak says, especially for the mountains around here, just give us a lot of storms (i.e. moisture) in the winter and we’ll take our chances with the snowfall. Temperatures can play a part, but like a lot of high elevation/high latitude locations, it’s more a question of how much moisture you can throw into Mother Nature’s snowmaking system.In that regard, I’m not all that excited about the amount of moisture available for the upcoming cold season based on what I’ve seen this summer, at least in terms of persistence. I know that there have been overall pattern changes, but here in Northern Vermont it doesn’t have the feel of a setup that is going to bring copious amounts of precipitation; it feels a lot like the trend we saw last winter. I would describe the amount of precipitation this summer as “sufficient”, but certainly not “ample”. Having weekend after weekend of sunshine and dry trails has been fantastic, but we’re going to need some sort of switch to be flipped if we want lots of moisture for a snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Just stepped outside and actually saw some stars peeking through the clouds. Got my last scheduled golf event tomorrow, hopefully we can stay dry for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Oh why can't mansfield be 500 feet taller. the top would be buried sunday night. sooooo close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 That’s too bad that they’re not getting a good record of this event at the summit, it would be a nice one to see based on what the lower elevations are picking up. I checked our rain gauge here at the house and it was at 2.51” as of ~9:00 P.M. It’s mostly tapered off to showers now, but that’s already a decent total from this event. We’ve had just three days without measurable precipitation this month, and almost six inches of liquid, so indeed with regard to my post below from back on August 23rd, I’d say that a precipitation switch has been flipped. If this level of precipitation sticks around going forward, the Northern Greens will definitely be able to do their thing. J.Spin...congrats your 2.5"+ is tops in the state this morning on CoCoRAHS! Living between the Spine really maximizes that QPF. In fact though the Stowe and Waterbury area got drenched in this event, with both towns making up 5 of the top 9 precipitation reports in the state this morning on CoCoRAHS. Looks like 1.8-2.0" here in Stowe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 About 1.25" at sprawling Jayhawk Estates. Good day to NOT be on the trails. Hvy hvy mud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Oh why can't mansfield be 500 feet taller. the top would be buried sunday night. sooooo close. ? I dont see much precip at all on sunday night? nam and gfs are dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 1.22" from yesterday here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Had 0.90" so far, most falling in moderate showers 7P-midnight. Temple cocorahs, about 10 miles west of here, reported 1.80". Temp stayed in mid-upper 50s thru the night, about +20 though the day will probably wind up closer to +10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 0.63" here yesterday...thank god this wasn't snow. I would have busted big time due to shadowing. Really only got heavy precip form about 18z-23z yesterday when the flow was out of the south. Whew. Meanwhile its currently 67F here. Absolutely gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 0.63" here yesterday...thank god this wasn't snow. I would have busted big time due to shadowing. Really only got heavy precip form about 18z-23z yesterday when the flow was out of the south. Whew. Meanwhile its currently 67F here. Absolutely gorgeous. Your weenie credentials have just been revoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 72/49 and mostly sunny...could be 5 or 6 months until the next day like this up here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 20, 2012 Author Share Posted October 20, 2012 Your weenie credentials have just been revoked. Hahaha let me rephrase that. Bring on the snow...thank god I didn't forecast the way I did yesterday during a snowstorm. I called for 0.75-1.25" regionwide (NEK) and I busted way low. I went conservative with QPF..some guidance had up to 1.50" in my area. Ouchh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Hahaha let me rephrase that. Bring on the snow...thank god I didn't forecast the way I did yesterday during a snowstorm. I called for 0.75-1.25" regionwide (NEK) and I busted way low. I went conservative with QPF..some guidance had up to 1.50" in my area. Ouchh! Haha glad you cleared that up... if you ever wish precipitation wasn't snow you could get banned from this forum (Eek is the only one who can wish for no snow). Was that NEK dry zone (like really dry in the upper Valley along the NH/VT border) due to downsloping? I can't really tell how much orographics had on this one, although we certainly seemed to have a maxima in the north running up from J.Spin through here on the east side of the Spine (Washington and Lamoille Counties). But usually when that happens there's a more pronounced downslope into the Champlain Valley. Also a maxima on the SE side of the Adirondacks which is climo for SE flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 20, 2012 Share Posted October 20, 2012 Turned out to be a beautiful day. Played what is likely to be my last 18 holes of the year. Shot a 90, not great but not awful either. There had to be quite a bit of rain in the Northfield/ Roxbury area as the Dog River was flowing pretty fast. It had also overflowed its banks sometime last night, coming up into our first fairway. Thankfully there wasn't any damage to any of our Irene repairs. Haven't looked at any forecasts but sounds like it could be mild this week or has that now changed ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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