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NNE Fall 2012


ctsnowstorm628

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Anybody in the darker skies of nothern New Eng observe the northern lights tonight? The observers on Mt Washington saw them, so I was wondering if anyone else could?

Had them here at the WFO as well. We took a walk up away from the parking lot to the radar, and weren't quite sure for the first few minutes if we were just seeing things. After our eyes adjusted it became pretty clear that the pale light off to the north wasn't any light pollution. While we were out there it got pretty bright with a few pillars visible at times, but nothing extraordinary. Just the bright glow was impressive enough, as if the sun had set an hour ago or something.

The picture on the latest Mount Washington blog entry would probably be pretty close to what we witnessed here if anyone had happened to have a SLR camera on hand. There was one unfortunately placed band of AC or cirrus just SE of the Whites that was really in the best line of sight for the lights.

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Great shots, Freak!

Coldest morn of the season so far here--down to 30 & might be able to tick down one more before sunrise.

Anybody in the darker skies of nothern New Eng observe the northern lights tonight? The observers on Mt Washington saw them, so I was wondering if anyone else could?

Should've gone outside one more time last night it seems. No, didn't see them but wish I had. It's been a long time for me--several years.

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So at 4-5pm when they report to NWS, there probably was only 1.5" or so new snow...

Yeah, I've never figured out why they report so late. There are two other stations that report late like that too--St. J (Fairbanks) and Salisbury. The rest of us do the normal ~7am report.

Any idea as to why?

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Yeah, I've never figured out why they report so late. There are two other stations that report late like that too--St. J (Fairbanks) and Salisbury. The rest of us do the normal ~7am report.

Any idea as to why?

I think that in the case of Mt. Mansfield, it might be something to do with the shift change of the communications engineers that are stationed up there on the ridgeline? Powderfreak can probably clarify that.

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3.5-4.0" measured at 3,625ft at Stowe... pics coming shortly.

Well, after listening to Roger Hill’s broadcast this morning, it sounds like the next round of snow is coming in tomorrow night, so that could be another opportunity for pictures and some addition to the monthly snow totals. It’s definitely been feeling like the Northern Greens we know as of late – this morning was the 11th day in a row with liquid in the gauge at the house, and there’s only been one day in the past two weeks without some liquid in there at observation time. It averages out to more than 0.2” of rain a day. Hopefully we can keep this general trend going into the coming months (with perhaps a few breaks for everyone’s sanity).

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Great shots, Freak!

Coldest morn of the season so far here--down to 30 & might be able to tick down one more before sunrise.

Should've gone outside one more time last night it seems. No, didn't see them but wish I had. It's been a long time for me--several years.

Coldest morning so far at my place too. My thermometer read 31.5° at 6:30 this morning. Had to scrape the windshield for the first time. We were right on the edge of the fog, less than a tenth of a mile down the street was shrouded in fog and no frost.

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Here are just two other pictures that I think are pretty cool... the sort of things most folks don't see but really gets the energy level up at the ski resort (we are all snow lovers, obviously).

So picture this scene in your head... at the base you can't see any snow. The cloud line is too low and all you see is orange hillsides, the temps are near 40F and its drizzling. Folks are just talking in the gondola barn, shootin' it with each other like usual when you first get to work. The lift starts spinning and all the sudden this cabin rolls through the terminal... followed by a huge roar and cheering by everyone in the barn-- its the first snow we see of the season as the cabins on the upper mountain hit the base all caked in snow.

IMG_8043_edited-1.jpg

The tell tale sign of what happened last night in the upper elevations... the steady hum of lift continues to bring down snowy gondi cabins.

IMG_8001_edited-1.jpg

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Had them here at the WFO as well. We took a walk up away from the parking lot to the radar, and weren't quite sure for the first few minutes if we were just seeing things. After our eyes adjusted it became pretty clear that the pale light off to the north wasn't any light pollution. While we were out there it got pretty bright with a few pillars visible at times, but nothing extraordinary. Just the bright glow was impressive enough, as if the sun had set an hour ago or something.

The picture on the latest Mount Washington blog entry would probably be pretty close to what we witnessed here if anyone had happened to have a SLR camera on hand. There was one unfortunately placed band of AC or cirrus just SE of the Whites that was really in the best line of sight for the lights.

WFO BTV put up a great picture on their facebook page... shot over Lake Champlain last night.

http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Burlington.gov

255488_385815971490310_1873266459_n.jpg

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I think that in the case of Mt. Mansfield, it might be something to do with the shift change of the communications engineers that are stationed up there on the ridgeline? Powderfreak can probably clarify that.

Yes you are correct J.Spin. They go up the Toll Road for shift change in the afternoon via 4-wheeler, snowmobile, etc depending on the season. If you are ever hiking or skinning up there you'll hear or see them pass you around late afternoon. During ski season, they go up after 4pm when the ski resort closes, which is why the report is usually around 5pm or so.

The main issue is that these folks are NOT weather observers. They are engineers for the comm towers up there. They are doing the NWS a favor by taking these readings and calling them in and its not what they are hired to do. Its a minor detail in their daily assignments. Most of them don't care about the weather any more than your average citizen. These are not the MWN observers who are meteorologists staying at the summit.

Jay Peak has had that issue at times with their Co-Op from what I've heard. The 6am reading was done by the night audit at the Hotel Jay. This is some guy who's a front desk agent at a hotel, who probably would rather not go outside at 6am in the middle of the winter, but its on his work checklist... so he goes out and drops a ruler in the snow. You think that guy who's been there since 11pm and maybe couldn't care less about the weather, is going to go out of his way to make sure he's not measuring in a drift or scoured area? From what I've heard from a friend at Jay, they've trained and found some other folks that are more reliable in the past couple years.

We gotta take all weather observations from the mountains regardless of who it is, just because its hard to come by that data. But there seems to be more and more actively reporting weather-enthusiasts these days so it gets better.

But the thing I remember about the Mount Mansfield readings is these folks are following the same daily protocol and its flawed in ways, so you have to take it with a grain of salt, and remind yourself these may not be weather-savvy people. It is what it is but most of the time the MMNV1 reports stand out when the summit of Mansfield gets less snow or precip than all the towns around it. The NWS knows it can be flawed but I agree with them at least it is *something* and in the days before the internet and webcams and stuff like that, it really was the only report from the summit that you could get.

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There was one unfortunately placed band of AC or cirrus just SE of the Whites that was really in the best line of sight for the lights.

Probably was parked over MBY, as only the brightest stars were visible, and that just barely.

Another frosty morning, low 28 or 29. Leaves 75%+ fallen around the house and looking wintry, closer to 50-75% in the general area. Saturday's wind/rain really did a number, but we had a week-plus of gorgeous color before that, best in several years. (And the bright burgundy-colored red maple on Sand Hill in Augusta has barely begun to turn; it's generally about 2 weeks behind the main color change.)

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Well PF, at least with the current thoughts in the BTV NWS discussion, it looks like you’ve got multiple chances for additional snow coming up there on Mansfield with a cold frontal passage on Wednesday night, a secondary cold front on Friday, and a warm front on Saturday. There should certainly be some frozen precipitation with those temperatures. Point and click:

09OCT12A.jpg

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Yep, J.Spin... they have a good discussion out this afternoon and provide quite a bit of detail for the higher elevations. I love when they do this and BTV is certainly one of the better offices at discussing high elevation weather in their AFD's. Even though no one lives at these elevations, they realize the extent of the outdoor recreation interests in this area and always seem to have a few comments regarding weather on the local peaks.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS BEHIND SFC

COLD FRNT...BUT STRONG SFC PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES ACRS THE

OHIO VALLEY AND DEPARTING LOW PRES WL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO

FAR. GIVEN...A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW BTWN 925MB AND

850MB...THINKING BEST LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WL STAY SOUTH OF OUR

CWA ON WEDS NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLW AND LEFTOVER

850 TO 700MB RH...MAY PRODUCE A FEW MTN FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ON

WEDS NIGHT...AS 85H TEMPS COOL BLW 0C. GFS SOUNDINGS AT JAY PEAK

SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY THURS

MORNING FROM SUGARBUSH TO MOUNT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. SOUNDINGS

SHOW WELL MIXED BL WITH CAA ACRS OUR CWA...WL MENTION LOWS FROM

THE U20S MTNS TO U30S VALLEYS AND L40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

ON THURSDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACRS OUR CWA BY 18Z...WITH RETURN

SOUTHWEST FLW DEVELOPING BY 00Z FRIDAY. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW ENHANCED

850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING THE SLV BY 18Z THURS AND SPREADING TWD THE

CPV BY 00Z FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID WAA AHEAD OF NEXT

SYSTEM. THIS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WL PUSH ACRS OUR CWA

THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WL HAVE

LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD SFC

CONVERGENCE...EXPECT ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO

FRIDAY MORNING..WITH HIGHEST POPS/QPF CONCENTRATED ACRS THE MTNS.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

FOR THURSDAY...PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 0C...BUT INCREASE

CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING/MIXING...THINKING U40S NEK TO NEAR 60F

CPV/SLV. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS FROM APPROACHING

BOUNDARY...INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP...AND WARMING LLVL THERMAL

PROFILES ON THURS NIGHT...WL MENTION LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MAINLY

IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...TWD FRIDAY MORNING LLVL CAA DEVELOPS AND

THERMAL PROFILES ABOVE 2000 FT WL BECM COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME

SNOW. HAVE MENTION A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION

POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THRU THE CWA DURING

THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW SFC RIDGE BUILDING OVER

THE NORTH COUNTRY FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS WARM

FRNTL BOUNDARY SWING THRU THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE

CWA...OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE CWA SLOWLY ON SUNDAY. SFC LOW

ASSOCIATED WITH FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF CWA TRAVELING EAST THRU QUEBEC

INTO MONDAY. TIMING ISSUES WITH EXITING SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO

TUESDAY AS LATEST ECMWF DIGS UPPER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL

POTENTIALLY KEEP PRECIP LONGER OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE LATEST

GFS BRINGS DRIER AIR WITH RIDGE FROM GREAT LKS REGION.

IMPACTS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...

FRIDAY...MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE LGT -RW...EMPHASIS WILL BE OVER

HIR TRRN AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF WITH WNW FLOW OVER THE AREA. SOME --SW

POSSIBLE AT 1500-2000` OR HIR FOR A FEW HRS IN THE MORNING...BECM

ALL -RW BFR ENDING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...CWA WILL RADIATE OUT UNDER CLR SKIES

FRI NGT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S CWA-WIDE.

COLDER TEMPS IN THE HILLS OF DACKS NE VT. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST DURING

THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM UP WITH HGHS INTO THE MID50S AS

SSW FLOW INCR AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRNT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...LGT PRECIP/CLDS INCR OVER N NY SAT NGT

OVERSPREADING CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. POSITIONING OF WARM FRNT ON

GFS/ECMWF EXTENT OF ANY -SW THAT DEMELOP OVE RHIR TRRN BFR GOING TO

ALL -RW. SYSTEM SLIDES SLOWLY EAST THRU SUN/SUN NGT AS PARENT LOW

SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR -RW OVER AREA

THRU PERIOD. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY W/ FRNT LIFTING N OF

CWA...PRECIP WILL SCT OUT SOME AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO AREA. WILL BE

KEEPING CHANCE POPS FOR -RW TRANSITIONING TO LGT -SW OVER HIR AS CD

AIR FILTERS INTO AREA UNDER NW. FOR NOW WITH MDL UNCERTAINTY HAVE

KEPT SL CHANCE FOR TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS.

TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED BLW NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES WITH RIDGE

OVERHD...AND INCR TO AT OR ABV NORMAL CONDITIONS DUE TO WARMER

AIRMASS WORKING INTO AREA W/ FRNT.

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Yep, J.Spin... they have a good discussion out this afternoon and provide quite a bit of detail for the higher elevations. I love when they do this and BTV is certainly one of the better offices at discussing high elevation weather in their AFD's. Even though no one lives at these elevations, they realize the extent of the outdoor recreation interests in this area and always seem to have a few comments regarding weather on the local peaks.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 350 PM EDT TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENS BEHIND SFC

COLD FRNT...BUT STRONG SFC PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES ACRS THE

OHIO VALLEY AND DEPARTING LOW PRES WL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO

FAR. GIVEN...A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW BTWN 925MB AND

850MB...THINKING BEST LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WL STAY SOUTH OF OUR

CWA ON WEDS NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE NW FLW AND LEFTOVER

850 TO 700MB RH...MAY PRODUCE A FEW MTN FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ON

WEDS NIGHT...AS 85H TEMPS COOL BLW 0C. GFS SOUNDINGS AT JAY PEAK

SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE BY THURS

MORNING FROM SUGARBUSH TO MOUNT MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. SOUNDINGS

SHOW WELL MIXED BL WITH CAA ACRS OUR CWA...WL MENTION LOWS FROM

THE U20S MTNS TO U30S VALLEYS AND L40S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

ON THURSDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACRS OUR CWA BY 18Z...WITH RETURN

SOUTHWEST FLW DEVELOPING BY 00Z FRIDAY. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW ENHANCED

850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING THE SLV BY 18Z THURS AND SPREADING TWD THE

CPV BY 00Z FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW TO MID WAA AHEAD OF NEXT

SYSTEM. THIS FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WL PUSH ACRS OUR CWA

THUR NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WL HAVE

LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT GIVEN STRONG DYNAMICS AND GOOD SFC

CONVERGENCE...EXPECT ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO

FRIDAY MORNING..WITH HIGHEST POPS/QPF CONCENTRATED ACRS THE MTNS.

MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

FOR THURSDAY...PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 0C...BUT INCREASE

CLOUDS MAY LIMIT SFC HEATING/MIXING...THINKING U40S NEK TO NEAR 60F

CPV/SLV. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS FROM APPROACHING

BOUNDARY...INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP...AND WARMING LLVL THERMAL

PROFILES ON THURS NIGHT...WL MENTION LOWS ABOVE GUIDANCE AND MAINLY

IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...TWD FRIDAY MORNING LLVL CAA DEVELOPS AND

THERMAL PROFILES ABOVE 2000 FT WL BECM COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME

SNOW. HAVE MENTION A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION

POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FT AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 326 PM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THRU THE CWA DURING

THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW SFC RIDGE BUILDING OVER

THE NORTH COUNTRY FRI NGT INTO SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS WARM

FRNTL BOUNDARY SWING THRU THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE

CWA...OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE CWA SLOWLY ON SUNDAY. SFC LOW

ASSOCIATED WITH FRNT LIFTS NORTH OF CWA TRAVELING EAST THRU QUEBEC

INTO MONDAY. TIMING ISSUES WITH EXITING SYSTEM ON MONDAY INTO

TUESDAY AS LATEST ECMWF DIGS UPPER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL

POTENTIALLY KEEP PRECIP LONGER OVER THE AREA...WHILE THE LATEST

GFS BRINGS DRIER AIR WITH RIDGE FROM GREAT LKS REGION.

IMPACTS FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY...

FRIDAY...MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE LGT -RW...EMPHASIS WILL BE OVER

HIR TRRN AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF WITH WNW FLOW OVER THE AREA. SOME --SW

POSSIBLE AT 1500-2000` OR HIR FOR A FEW HRS IN THE MORNING...BECM

ALL -RW BFR ENDING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...CWA WILL RADIATE OUT UNDER CLR SKIES

FRI NGT ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S CWA-WIDE.

COLDER TEMPS IN THE HILLS OF DACKS NE VT. RIDGE SHIFTS EAST DURING

THE DAY SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR WARM UP WITH HGHS INTO THE MID50S AS

SSW FLOW INCR AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRNT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...LGT PRECIP/CLDS INCR OVER N NY SAT NGT

OVERSPREADING CWA BY SUNDAY MORNING. POSITIONING OF WARM FRNT ON

GFS/ECMWF EXTENT OF ANY -SW THAT DEMELOP OVE RHIR TRRN BFR GOING TO

ALL -RW. SYSTEM SLIDES SLOWLY EAST THRU SUN/SUN NGT AS PARENT LOW

SHIFTS INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR -RW OVER AREA

THRU PERIOD. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY W/ FRNT LIFTING N OF

CWA...PRECIP WILL SCT OUT SOME AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO AREA. WILL BE

KEEPING CHANCE POPS FOR -RW TRANSITIONING TO LGT -SW OVER HIR AS CD

AIR FILTERS INTO AREA UNDER NW. FOR NOW WITH MDL UNCERTAINTY HAVE

KEPT SL CHANCE FOR TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS.

TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED BLW NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES WITH RIDGE

OVERHD...AND INCR TO AT OR ABV NORMAL CONDITIONS DUE TO WARMER

AIRMASS WORKING INTO AREA W/ FRNT.

:weenie:

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