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NNE Fall 2012


ctsnowstorm628

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Wow it's amazing how fast we went from ridiculous peak color to past peak now. In the last 48 hours it's like 30% of all trees have lost their leaves. There were piles of leaves in the road under the maples this morning and it's just raining leaves.

No question about that, I was going to send in a comment today as well. I was working out in the yard this morning before the rain, and the leaves were coming down in a blizzard as the winds picked up with the approach of the front. I’d say looking around here on our property, on average more than 50% of the leaves are down, and the foliage on our north side is 80%+ down, with some trees bare. It’s been getting that feeling of past peak for the past couple of days, but today it’s obvious, even down here in the valley. I’d much rather have those fantastic colors in your recent images stick around, but on the bright side, the trees going bare is Mother Nature’s way of saying that climatologically, freezing/snow could happen at any point here.

On that note, the point and click icon for tomorrow night is still a good fit:

06OCT12A.jpg

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Wow it's amazing how fast we went from ridiculous peak color to past peak now. In the last 48 hours it's like 30% of all trees have lost their leaves. There were piles of leaves in the road under the maples this morning and it's just raining leaves.

The color on the remaining trees is still very good but the neon reds are gone. The hills have that orange look you get when fall meets stick season. Leaves off the tops of the trees are gone with orange hanging on in clumps around the bottom.

The difference between Sat-Tues period earlier in the week and now is a little disheartening. Town is packed with Columbus Day weekend peepers and I really wanted the masses to witness what we had last weekend. It's still good foliage but definitely past peak. We lost the vibrant diversity of color we had 5 days ago. Absolutely no green left and as Allenson said, you can see deeper into the woods with each passing day.

Growing up in NJ before moving to Vermont, I have noticed that the fall foliage season is MUCH SHORTER here in Vermont. While it may be more spectacular in VT for a week, it lasts for weeks in the Mid-Atlantic States near Peak. And it's much more evenly spead. Up here, like last year, the higher elevations were done before the lower elevations even started with any color!

That being said, the colors this year were outstanding, best of the past 6 years I can remember and totally blows away last year.

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Good period of rainfall this afternoon... temp dropped from 58F at 6am when I woke up to a current 50F. I see 39F at the summit station of Mansfield, 44F at 2,300ft.

I see the GFS is slowly coming around to the NAM/ECM with regards to some measurable precipitation on Sunday evening. All I want is 0.1" of QPF as snow on the summit so I can see a dusting up there first thing Monday morning ;)

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Boom... there it is. First snowfall accums in the grids for VT.

1-2" Sunday night above 3,000ft, lol.

CD POOL

OF AIR ON NW FLOW BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO

MONDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MENTION OF -RW CHANGING TO

-SW OVER HIR TRRN(1500` AND ABV). MDL TEMPS AROUND 850MB DROP TO

0C TO -4C...WHILE 925 TEMPS STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL -RW. UPSLOPE

COMPONENT TO NW FLOW INTO HIR TRRN WILL AID IN CHANGEOVER/

PRODUCTION OF -SW. POSSIBLE FOR A DUSTING TO AN INCH TO OCCUR BFR

PRECIP SHUTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

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Boom... there it is. First snowfall accums in the grids for VT.

1-2" Sunday night above 3,000ft, lol.

CD POOL

OF AIR ON NW FLOW BEHIND EXITING SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO

MONDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MENTION OF -RW CHANGING TO

-SW OVER HIR TRRN(1500` AND ABV). MDL TEMPS AROUND 850MB DROP TO

0C TO -4C...WHILE 925 TEMPS STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL -RW. UPSLOPE

COMPONENT TO NW FLOW INTO HIR TRRN WILL AID IN CHANGEOVER/

PRODUCTION OF -SW. POSSIBLE FOR A DUSTING TO AN INCH TO OCCUR BFR

PRECIP SHUTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

AWT

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Mt Washington. http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/

An approaching upper-level shortwave disturbance will spawn a coastal low pressure system today, which will ride northward into New England and provide the summits with some measurable snowfall. Partial sunshine this morning, thanks to a brief visit from a high pressure ridge, will be quickly obscured by thickening and lowering clouds during the afternoon, with high temperatures some 15-20 degrees shy of yesterday's. In the meantime, a low pressure system will materialize off the Jersey shore and shoot up the coast, throwing the summits back into the fog by sunset. With temperatures commencing in the upper 20s and only receding thereafter, snow will develop on the highest peaks of the higher summits, which will mix at times at the onset for lower peaks. Precipitation will wrap up during the overnight hours as temperatures sink into the teens for the first time this season. Another, stronger high pressure system will build in on Monday, starting things out in the clear with some partial sunshine. However, clouds will begin to build by afternoon, providing periods of intermittent fog to close out the day.

Due to the fast-moving nature of the storm, only a few hours of snowfall is expected early tonight. However, in that time, 1-2" of snowfall accumulations are expected on the highest peaks of the higher summits. In areas where more precipitation mixing occurs, accumulations will be reduced

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Got down to 33 last night while still clear with some light frost. Clouds must've come in very quickly as now all is gray out there and we're in the upper thirties.

Pine needles too. They are covering roads.

Saw that last night driving home from dinner. We'd come to a stretch where there are a lot of pines along the roadside and the road itself was covered in needles.

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Hope I'll be able to find my golf ball today with this leaf drop. At least it's been wet and not too much wind, so hopefully the fairways haven't been overrun yet.

Fall rules, free drop if you knock into leaves that are clearly in play. Looks like there are a few of us that have golf in tap for today.

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Got down to 33 last night while still clear with some light frost. Clouds must've come in very quickly as now all is gray out there and we're in the upper thirties.

Saw that last night driving home from dinner. We'd come to a stretch where there are a lot of pines along the roadside and the road itself was covered in needles.

Was 35F when I got up at 6:15. Still no frost on th ground yet but ice on the car roof again.

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Never cleared here... probably orographic debris or something but we didn't get below 39F. I see spots further east like MPV/1V4 got about 5F lower.

Its been 30-32F at the summit all morning, and low 40s at 1,500ft base of the ski resort.

Setting the stage for hopefully some snow showers tonight or at least some rime with this thick cloud layer.

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Looks like a lot of CNE/NNE will struggle to 50 on Friday/Saturday with first freeze for a lot of areas...upper 20s?

BTV agrees...

MILD AND NEAR SEASONAL

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL TREND SUCCESSIVELY COOLER THURSDAY

INTO FRIDAY...WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE/FROST THREAT LIKELY BY

SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS

THE REGION.

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BTV agrees...

MILD AND NEAR SEASONAL

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL TREND SUCCESSIVELY COOLER THURSDAY

INTO FRIDAY...WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE/FROST THREAT LIKELY BY

SATURDAY MORNING AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS

THE REGION.

Yeah, it's still out there in the d6 range, but modeling has consistently been showing a 1032mb high just to our SW for Sat AM with a decreasing pressure gradient and 850s of -5 to -8C in NNE and -2 to -5C in SNE. That's around the time of the year where I start seeing my first MU20s. On good rad nights I will often radiate down near the 850 temps aloft while CON dips a few degrees cooler.
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Around 230pm the Mansfield ridge disappeared in a very telling white wispy look...almost like virga but definitely looked like snow. There was an obvious change in transparency around 3,500ft so I assumed it was snowing up top.

Sure enough, the calls started coming in: "Snowing at the Toll Rd top from Quad station on up." "Gondi top has light snow now."

No accumulation but flakes have flown up high today. I'm looking forward to being at the top Gondi station in the morning if we can get some of that moisture in SW NY up over here...it's cold enough for snow up there.

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Man I miss these AFDs when snow starts coming into the cards...

"With precipitation associated with the coastl system moving east away from the County Warning Area...focus for any overngt precipitation will be with trough lifting through the region through 12z Monday. General flow will remain south-southwest into the evening...shifting to more west-northwest after midnight. This means that all areas will see -rw to start...W/ hir elev of dacks/NC NE Vermont seeing mix/changeover to some -SW before precipitation tapers off. With colder air slow to mv into area...have trended any forthcoming -SW to begin over areas 2000' or higher..then done to 1500' or higher towards morning. Moisture limited on backside of system...but with upslope conditions...dusting up to a few tenths of an inch of snow in spots is possible."

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PF might want to take a trip up to 4k shortly.

I am dismayed the temp at 3950ft has been 33-34F recently after sitting all day at 31-32F.

It's raining in town at 45F right now though...moist adiabatic does argue for just above freezing 3000ft higher.

I need that to drop if I'm going to see any accumulations of a coating at 8am up there cause precip will be long gone.

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