J.Spin Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Dense fog and 35F. No frost that I can see out my window at home. No frost concerns at our location either; between the fog and being fairly close to the Winooski, our location seems to be well protected from these early frosts. I’ve seen it enough now that I didn’t even think twice about the garden when I saw the advisories. In fact, when I left this morning around 6:00 A.M. we were still around 41 F, consistent with that 42 F right on the Washington/Chittenden county line near our location on your map. PF, where do you get that map? – I’d be interested in knowing where that station is because it looks like it’s right on top of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
borderwx Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 As always, awesome pics Border...how high above the valley are you there? And is that my stomping grounds off in the distance? Awesome September morning out there! I'm still surprised at how once you drive out of the fog the ground immediately became frosted. The elevation of the fog was only like 700-850ft and frost started at 850ft. good color this morning, glad it made across in the pics. sun is behind the mountain now before 7pm, it had dropped below 40 when I put the tractor away last night, lots of inspiration lately in the skies between the sunsets and sunrises. 1080' PF. The top of the hill is a tad shy of 1200'. That sure is your highpiont down there, nice air this morning, could see the rock on the chin contrasted nicely against the trees, sterling ridgeline to the left. allenson- saw your pics from Reid in the other thread, wicked nice, we had that same ground layer about half way down the beach when we were there, just kind of lingers there it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Hard scraping and 29 at my place this morning. Monday's 31 didn't touch the tomatos or peppers, but I think this one got their attention. Judging by river flow, the Sugarloaf area took another pounding night before last. Carrabasset rose 7' and peaked at 8,000 cfs, while the larger-drainage Sandy went up 3.5' and just reached 4,000 cfs. The usual peak flow ratio for the two rivers is about 5:4 in favor of the Sandy. I measured 1.11" from the event but places farther north had more than twice that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 What a great early Fall day. Perfect temps and blue sky. Driving to Bathhurst, NB tomorrow. Anyone every been? Should be a nice, albeit long drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 37 last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted September 20, 2012 Author Share Posted September 20, 2012 Got to 31 here, 28 at Island Pond. Solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Going to get mighty chilly next wed night/thurs morning if the GFS is right. Then we rigdge...MAYBE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 My forecast has some snow grids showing up for midweek. Albeit, this is above 6,000 feet and mixed with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 My forecast has some snow grids showing up for midweek. Albeit, this is above 6,000 feet and mixed with rain. That's a sign any ways of things to come hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 That's a sign any ways of things to come hopefully Cited in my AFD, but MWN averages 2.2" of snow in September. So it looks like we're right on schedule for the final week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Cited in my AFD, but MWN averages 2.2" of snow in September. So it looks like we're right on schedule for the final week of the month. Noted that in your Long Term, Yeah, I check the obs up on the rock pile a couple times a week and i know they have already had some ryme Ice and snow up there, So that's good that we will be starting to see some frozen starting to show on our higher peaks soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 What a great early Fall day. Perfect temps and blue sky. Driving to Bathhurst, NB tomorrow. Anyone every been? Should be a nice, albeit long drive. Long for sure - must be 500 miles or so, but I've never been within 100 miles of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 No frost concerns at our location either; between the fog and being fairly close to the Winooski, our location seems to be well protected from these early frosts. I’ve seen it enough now that I didn’t even think twice about the garden when I saw the advisories. In fact, when I left this morning around 6:00 A.M. we were still around 41 F, consistent with that 42 F right on the Washington/Chittenden county line near our location on your map. PF, where do you get that map? – I’d be interested in knowing where that station is because it looks like it’s right on top of us. Here ya go, J.Spin... that one right on top of you is actually the Bolton Valley base area station at 2,100ft. http://www.weirsonline.com/mesomap.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 The map of last night's lows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 Here ya go, J.Spin... that one right on top of you is actually the Bolton Valley base area station at 2,100ft.http://www.weirsonline.com/mesomap.htm Thanks PF, almost thought it was a Winooski Valley one the way it was placed, but the Bolton Valley base isn't too far as the crow flies, so I could see how that one would look so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 The map of last night's lows... It's nights like that where the living a block from the lake is a good thing. Sure I like it in the 20s but the 40s is just fine for september. Love that I have a moderating influence like that right out my back door. Of course when it's April and 73 on UVM's campus and 53 on the lake I might change my tune.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Good example of how much colder it gets with calm winds vs a breeze... BTV at 56F and south at 12mph. MVL is 41F and calm. MPV is 46F and south at 3mph. 1V4 is 39F and calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 Good example of how much colder it gets with calm winds vs a breeze... BTV at 56F and south at 12mph. MVL is 41F and calm. MPV is 46F and south at 3mph. 1V4 is 39F and calm. 1V4's metar is always calm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 20% Rain and Snow in the grids above 1,200ft for Sunday night into Monday...I don't buy it, but its there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 20% Rain and Snow in the grids above 1,200ft for Sunday night into Monday...I don't buy it, but its there! LOL just straight up snow showers in the grids at 3000ft. Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 1V4's metar is always calm... Well for the overnight the lack of wind may have been accurate- nonexistent anemometer like a broken clock right twice a day. Here are the recent wind readings at the Fairbanks museum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Well for the overnight the lack of wind may have been accurate- nonexistent anemometer like a broken clock right twice a day. Here are the recent wind readings at the Fairbanks museum. I had no idea they didn't have an anemometer there...haha I thought it was like an ASOS that doesn't report current weather conditions (rain, snow, clear). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 I had no idea they didn't have an anemometer there...haha I thought it was like an ASOS that doesn't report current weather conditions (rain, snow, clear). Not sure if they have one but I have never seen a wind reading in the 3 day histories. ex. http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/K1V4.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 Posted this in the banter thread, but in case it gets buried... its been relatively cold the last 12 days! Since everyone else has chimed in about departures in September so far, I figured I'd add the BTV climate sites from Vermont to round out New England... Burlington...+1.8F (-0.3F over the past 12 days with 1 day with a low in the 30s) Morrisville-Stowe...+0.6F (-2.0F over the past 12 days with 6 days of lows in the 30s) Montpelier...-0.3F (-2.8F over the last 12 days with 5 days of lows in the 30s) Saint Johnsbury...-2.0F (-4.3F over the past 12 days with 4 days of lows in the 30s) *I'm skeptical of the 1V4 departures but that's what the F6 says. I take away a few things from these stats... first off, the the first week of the month was a torch (departure wise) but a lot of that was due to high minimum temperatures. For example, at Morrisville-Stowe Airport at the beginning of the month, we had one day that was 83/42 for a total departure of +1F. The high of 83F is warm, but a 41 degree drop to 42F for the low was equally as cold relative to normal. In the following days, we torched at night and the lows were 60F, 58F, 58F for a +11, +9, +9 on the dailies. The cold overnight temperatures over the last 12 days have definitely played a big role in our temperature departures being so cold since the 8th. Even with some warm daytime temperatures we have been able to come away with negative departures, such as on September 17th when here at MVL the high was a warm 78F, but the low was 34F (a nice 44F diurnal change). 5 of the last 6 mornings have seen lows in the 30s: 39F, 35F, 36F, 45F, 34F, 36F. Given the upcoming pattern, I expect that all the interior VT mountain valley sites finish September below normal (BTV in the CPV will be above). I'd love to see a composite of departures across New England from June 1st to now... as I bet this area has been one of the cooler spots since June 1 relative to normal across New England. When SNE was torching in July, this area was near normal with MPV/1V4 below normal, mostly thanks to overnight mins and a lot of mornings in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 I'm wondering if there was a siting/equipment change for 1V4 at some point. Maybe they're mixing older COOP climo data with newer obs from the AWOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 I'm wondering if there was a siting/equipment change for 1V4 at some point. Maybe they're mixing older COOP climo data with newer obs from the AWOS? Yeah because they've been running real cold all summer in terms of departures... it may go back further but I just didn't pay attention to over there before this summer for some reason. For one, the site is at 700ft surrounded by higher terrain, very similar to MVL. They seem to average very close to MVL, almost identical on a lot of days. On average, I've noticed that MVL tends to run a bit warmer during the day and a bit colder at night (I'm thinking this may have to do with MVL being surrounded by much larger mountains, so there's compressional heating during the day adding 1-2F, but at night there's better cold air drain from the upper elevations allowing for lower mins). This month is a perfect example of that, and so far through September 20th, this month's average high/low for 1V4 is 72/48 while MVL is 74/46. Exactly the same mean temperature, with MVL just seeing a higher diurnal range. Though somehow 1V4's long term average is listed as warmer than MVL's...and I can't really figure out how a spot further NE at the same elevation would be warmer over the long haul. 1V4's "normal" averages out to be 2F warmer than MVL on a daily basis...Normal is 69/48 today at 1V4 on the climate report, while MVL's normal is listed as 68/44. Yesterday for example at MVL had an average of 50F and a departure of -6F. Further east, 1V4 (at only 30 feet less elevation), had an average temperature of 49F, but a departure of -9F. Two degrees is fairly significant in this case because I've never seen a reason why St Johnsbury would average 2F warmer than Morrisville-Stowe Airport. Especially given that NE VT into northern NH is a climo colder location where they aren't as prone to warm air from the southwest as we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Two degrees is fairly significant in this case because I've never seen a reason why St Johnsbury would average 2F warmer than Morrisville-Stowe Airport. Especially given that NE VT into northern NH is a climo colder location where they aren't as prone to warm air from the southwest as we are. My guess is that St. J is at the top of the upper CT Valley and can get some warming by southern winds coming up the valley. Not as pronounced as BTV but maybe it helps. Would the valley fog that is so prevalent this time of year also boost the lows a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 Yeah because they've been running real cold all summer in terms of departures... it may go back further but I just didn't pay attention to over there before this summer for some reason. For one, the site is at 700ft surrounded by higher terrain, very similar to MVL. They seem to average very close to MVL, almost identical on a lot of days. On average, I've noticed that MVL tends to run a bit warmer during the day and a bit colder at night (I'm thinking this may have to do with MVL being surrounded by much larger mountains, so there's compressional heating during the day adding 1-2F, but at night there's better cold air drain from the upper elevations allowing for lower mins). This month is a perfect example of that, and so far through September 20th, this month's average high/low for 1V4 is 72/48 while MVL is 74/46. Exactly the same mean temperature, with MVL just seeing a higher diurnal range. Though somehow 1V4's long term average is listed as warmer than MVL's...and I can't really figure out how a spot further NE at the same elevation would be warmer over the long haul. 1V4's "normal" averages out to be 2F warmer than MVL on a daily basis...Normal is 69/48 today at 1V4 on the climate report, while MVL's normal is listed as 68/44. Yesterday for example at MVL had an average of 50F and a departure of -6F. Further east, 1V4 (at only 30 feet less elevation), had an average temperature of 49F, but a departure of -9F. Two degrees is fairly significant in this case because I've never seen a reason why St Johnsbury would average 2F warmer than Morrisville-Stowe Airport. Especially given that NE VT into northern NH is a climo colder location where they aren't as prone to warm air from the southwest as we are. 1V4 is definitely a hot spot in relation to the rest of the NEK...I've noticed here at LSC we are typically 1-5F cooler than 1V4 on any given day. As, the for the values given on the ASOS, I would investigate by looking up KCDA in Lyndonville for comparisons. I think their averages are just a little weird, because in the three years I've had up here, 1v4 is almost always colder than MVL given similar synoptic features in place at each location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster17 Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 Here are the forecasted Lows for Monday (Sunday Night) from the GFS MOS data for CT WINDSOR LOCKS 42° BRIDGEPORT 51° DANBURY 41° GROTON 47° HARTFORD-BRAINARD 46° NEW HAVEN 48° WILLIMANTIC 41° MERIDEN 43° OXFORD 42° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 22, 2012 Share Posted September 22, 2012 1V4 is definitely a hot spot in relation to the rest of the NEK...I've noticed here at LSC we are typically 1-5F cooler than 1V4 on any given day. As, the for the values given on the ASOS, I would investigate by looking up KCDA in Lyndonville for comparisons. I think their averages are just a little weird, because in the three years I've had up here, 1v4 is almost always colder than MVL given similar synoptic features in place at each location. Yeah...from what I've seen (and the monthly averages show it) MVL and 1V4 average just about identical temperatures. Most radiational cooling mornings, MVL will be lower, but by afternoon it reverses. Basically 1V4 has a lower diurnal range. MVL can get real warm in the afternoon and very dry from I assume compressional heating in the valley, whereas I don't notice that spike at 1V4. But the flip side is that at night MVL is the coldest spot around here locally...almost always colder than 1500ft at the base of the ski resort at night. This past week MVL beat the ski area base by over 5F on average each night (lowest temp at 1500ft so far is 38F this fall). Fog might be an answer but we are very fog prone here, and so is MPV and 1V4. I can't imagine that alone would cause a 2F increase in average temperatures. However looking at BTV's freeze climo, MVL's long term average of first 32F is Sept 27th, while 1V4's is Oct 1st. But I don't think that shows a colder climate but just better cooling at night which is what we already know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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