Rainshadow Posted October 5, 2012 Author Share Posted October 5, 2012 CFS2 weekly outlooks are cooler than normal until the last week of October; NAEFS week two is kind of in equal chances land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 CFS2 weekly outlooks are cooler than normal until the last week of October; NAEFS week two is kind of in equal chances land. I wouldn't bet on any significant above normal periods until the end of the month. Looks at-to-below normal through at least the 20th to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 not liking all the positive anomalies over siberia that keep showing up in the extended range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 Not looking too good in the snow cover department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 Not looking too good in the snow cover department. doesn't look to get any better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 Actually a comparsion on the snowcover to some past seasons is not that far from normal in my view. A little below on our side of the globe and normal in Siberia. Still have most of the month to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 sitting at + 6.8 through the first 6 days. that will be reduced greatly after today and this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 Actually a comparsion on the snowcover to some past seasons is not that far from normal in my view. A little below on our side of the globe and normal in Siberia. Still have most of the month to go. Totally agree and Siberia may be the more important of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 7, 2012 Author Share Posted October 7, 2012 doesn't look to get any better Well Siberia will be snow covered by the end of the month, the question is how much more of Eurasia (or maybe really Asia south of Siberia)? Look at the difference in the past two Octobers. 2010 first, then 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Departures thru 10/9. Mixed bag on the other side of the globe...at least there's a chunk of blue across parts of Siberia near the Baikal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 Coverage keeps on increasing in Siberia, we are on a much better pace than last October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Coverage keeps on increasing in Siberia, we are on a much better pace than last October. so your saying 30+ for phl is a lock?...lllllaaaa lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 11, 2012 Author Share Posted October 11, 2012 so your saying 30+ for phl is a lock?...lllllaaaa lock it up Tell me the enso state and I'll give you a number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Coverage keeps on increasing in Siberia, we are on a much better pace than last October. Why are there so many negative departures then? At first glance, the snow cover map looks great: But then it seems like we are well below normal where we need it. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 13, 2012 Author Share Posted October 13, 2012 Why are there so many negative departures then? At first glance, the snow cover map looks great: But then it seems like we are well below normal where we need it. Am I missing something? Last October on this date we were awful. It did pick up at the end of the month, we nearly got there. I think that was what Adam was looking at more of a julian date look than monthly snap shot. It is kind of volatile with snow cover, you can make up lost ground rather quickly in a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 any update YTD for October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 14, 2012 Author Share Posted October 14, 2012 any update YTD for October? PHL currently -0.4F, although we should go above after this week. Snowcover continues to not look bad. I think 9.5 million sq kilometers is the 50/50 break in Eurasia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 14, 2012 Share Posted October 14, 2012 It is very for philly to come in with normal temps for the month, let alone below normal... I don't think we could remember the last time that happened! Look at yesterday most of the suburbs and even northeast philly airport were at or below freezing, philly international airport was'nt even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 15, 2012 Share Posted October 15, 2012 It is very for philly to come in with normal temps for the month, let alone below normal... I don't think we could remember the last time that happened! Look at yesterday most of the suburbs and even northeast philly airport were at or below freezing, philly international airport was'nt even close. Yeah, but that's essentially part of the "normals" now. Here are the daily normal lows right now: PHL 49 ILG 47 ACY 46 TTN 44 RDG 44 ABE 42 MPO 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 PHL +0.2 through yesterday. +1.5ish given how the next week looks (and then how cool it *might* get the week of Halloween) seems pretty reasonable for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 1 important note october since 2000 has been about 1 degree above the 1981-2010 norms and with the way philly has been above normal just about every month (when was the last time we've seen a below normal month) I think it offers little value as far as winter is concerned. Just look at 2010 october was almost 2 degrees above normal and look at how cold december and january 2011 were. In my opinion snow cover to our north and also in siberia is much more important. After all we had our first freeze (most of us) so you can expect indian summer temps and we would want it to be warmer now than after thanksgiving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 PHL +0.2 through yesterday. +1.5ish given how the next week looks (and then how cool it *might* get the week of Halloween) seems pretty reasonable for the month. Which is pretty much the norm for philly over the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 1 important note october since 2000 has been about 1 degree above the 1981-2010 norms and with the way philly has been above normal just about every month (when was the last time we've seen a below normal month) I think it offers little value as far as winter is concerned. Just look at 2010 october was almost 2 degrees above normal and look at how cold december and january 2011 were. In my opinion snow cover to our north and also in siberia is much more important. After all we had our first freeze (most of us) so you can expect indian summer temps and we would want it to be warmer now than after thanksgiving! Since 2000 there have been six Octobers that have been below the current normal ( 5 below the long term median) and five above. Using a small sample size and the fact that 2007 was the warmest October on record skews what is stated above as occurring. My colleague who double majored in statistics uses October minimum temperatures as one of his predictors for his outlook. If October did not work, it would not be used. I would have never started posting this years ago. Yeah October 2010 failed because of a strongly negative nao that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 Getting back to this October, Eurasian snowcover is currently looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 Since 2000 there have been six Octobers that have been below the current normal ( 5 below the long term median) and five above. Using a small sample size and the fact that 2007 was the warmest October on record skews what is stated above as occurring. My colleague who double majored in statistics uses October minimum temperatures as one of his predictors for his outlook. If October did not work, it would not be used. I would have never started posting this years ago. Yeah October 2010 failed because of a strongly negative nao that winter. My main point is that philly has been mostly above normal over the last 2 or more years so that is why I feel that is may not mean as much as before. Another note is that west chester and chester county areas are running about 4 or more degrees cooler than philly which I know has not always been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 My main point is that philly has been mostly above normal over the last 2 or more years so that is why I feel that is may not mean as much as before. Another note is that west chester and chester county areas are running about 4 or more degrees cooler than philly which I know has not always been the case. October has been the least affected month by warming than any other. October temperatures (by thirds) and ensuing winter departure (above/below) has a success rate of around 70%. The question is how to identify points of failure and is there any commonality to them. Before Jack passed away, he found that the Newfoundland pool accounted for I think somewhere around 33% of those failures. We never looked at Siberian (Eurasian) snow cover. Last three winters have proven that if the nao is not lingering within 1 sd, you better be on the same side as it on the outlook or else you are in trouble. This winter we may be in outlook conflict (Newfoundland pool vs Siberian snow cover), so we will see who wins. I'm sorry, your posts reduce the sample size to the point it becomes statistically meaningless, its the equivalent of using CC Sabathia's last start as the basis for next season's contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 October has been the least affected month by warming than any other. October temperatures (by thirds) and ensuing winter departure (above/below) has a success rate of around 70%. The question is how to identify points of failure and is there any commonality to them. Before Jack passed away, he found that the Newfoundland pool accounted for I think somewhere around 33% of those failures. We never looked at Siberian (Eurasian) snow cover. Last three winters have proven that if the nao is not lingering within 1 sd, you better be on the same side as it on the outlook or else you are in trouble. This winter we may be in outlook conflict (Newfoundland pool vs Siberian snow cover), so we will see who wins. I'm sorry, your posts reduce the sample size to the point it becomes statistically meaningless, its the equivalent of using CC Sabathia's last start as the basis for next season's contract. My posts usually do include only recent trends I do realize that but I like many others hope that the warm trend stops (It is one of the longest that is consistently above normal) and that the yankees and phillies both do better next year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 My posts usually do include only recent trends I do realize that but I like many others hope that the warm trend stops (It is one of the longest that is consistently above normal) and that the yankees and phillies both do better next year! Also as I was saying october is only following recent trends if it is only around 1 or so above normal and snow cover is above normal that those 2 factors will bode well for snow and near average temps and please notice on the local nws site that west chester is around 4 or more degrees cooler than philly consistently this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 19, 2012 Author Share Posted October 19, 2012 My posts usually do include only recent trends I do realize that but I like many others hope that the warm trend stops (It is one of the longest that is consistently above normal) and that the yankees and phillies both do better next year! Persistence has its place and I'm pretty sure its a factor that is also considered by CPC, but WFO PHI's methodology/study with winter outlooks is at the other end of the spectrum. As for the Yanks and Phillies, as long as the Phillies are healthier, they should make the playoffs. The Yankees problems have started once they reach the playoffs and I'm not as optimistic about that next year if they have practically the same team. IDK about West Chester, our co-op program is currently two people short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted October 19, 2012 Share Posted October 19, 2012 We're going to be starting up site visits again soon and do our best to get to them all. Not sure if West Chester is on the list to be visited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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