Rainshadow Posted September 22, 2012 Author Share Posted September 22, 2012 Ok for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 The Cohen paper does explain why Mark can still go back into the 50s for his regression equation for winter, but only the 70s for summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted September 26, 2012 Share Posted September 26, 2012 How about the infamous Oct NP SLP box for +ENSO years? , barring something happens to ENSO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 26, 2012 Author Share Posted September 26, 2012 How about the infamous Oct NP SLP box for +ENSO years? , barring something happens to ENSO.. Yes. Yes. Yes. What was it below normal pressures in that box? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 Well with the MJO outlooked to tank, the models have become chillier after the first few days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Well with the MJO outlooked to tank, the models have become chillier after the first few days... Between the super typhoon and the big mountain torque event, I don't see how we don't stay blocky through at least Oct 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 Between the super typhoon and the big mountain torque event, I don't see how we don't stay blocky through at least Oct 15 Well that would be good to remove warm Octobers (top third) during weak el ninos from the list. Of the 5, three ensuing winters were warmer than the current normal, one was warmer than the long term median and only one was cold (1919-20). Weak el ninos and "normal" Octobers were a 50/50 split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 1, 2012 Author Share Posted October 1, 2012 Between the super typhoon and the big mountain torque event, I don't see how we don't stay blocky through at least Oct 15 Adam, Thanks for the facebook posting idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Between the super typhoon and the big mountain torque event, I don't see how we don't stay blocky through at least Oct 15 could you break down how to read and what the mountain torque means in terms of weather? Like for instance the MJO has each phase that plays a different role on storm development and temperatures for the area. Is Mt torque more of a thing where it helps jump start or get the ball rolling for -nao developments or what not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 could you break down how to read and what the mountain torque means in terms of weather? Like for instance the MJO has each phase that plays a different role on storm development and temperatures for the area. Is Mt torque more of a thing where it helps jump start or get the ball rolling for -nao developments or what not? In general, positive mountain torques lead to more zonal flow initially, then more meridional flow in the medium range (and vice versa for negative mountain torques). The schematic I use in my head is a positive mountain torque adds more angular momentum to the atmosphere, which then makes baroclinic instability more likely, meaning wave breaking events are more likely. Adding the angular momentum makes the flow more zonal, the wave breaking makes the flow more meridional. The last piece is determining where the wave breaking will occur. Himalayan mountain torques are correlated with the EPO and mountain torques from the Rockies are correlated to the NAO. MTs aren't the be-all end-all (e.g. the MJO is a stronger teleconnection), but they are one more piece in helping nail down the MR forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Adam, Thanks for the facebook posting idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 Well I hope there isn't a playoff game in Saint Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 BTW, I have to get him the numbers, but Mark is going to crunch how much of a statistically significant impact Eurasian Oct snow has on our winter temps here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 BTW, I have to get him the numbers, but Mark is going to crunch how much of a statistically significant impact Eurasian Oct snow has on our winter temps here. Nice. Can you have him look at d(snow)/dt through October as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 thats a pure lolz...remind not to look at that map during winter, cause that is truly weenism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 In general, positive mountain torques lead to more zonal flow initially, then more meridional flow in the medium range (and vice versa for negative mountain torques). The schematic I use in my head is a positive mountain torque adds more angular momentum to the atmosphere, which then makes baroclinic instability more likely, meaning wave breaking events are more likely. Adding the angular momentum makes the flow more zonal, the wave breaking makes the flow more meridional. The last piece is determining where the wave breaking will occur. Himalayan mountain torques are correlated with the EPO and mountain torques from the Rockies are correlated to the NAO. MTs aren't the be-all end-all (e.g. the MJO is a stronger teleconnection), but they are one more piece in helping nail down the MR forecast. where can you get the forecast for them? and how did you read a map of the Mtn torque? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 where can you get the forecast for them? and how did you read a map of the Mtn torque? Here is the link for MT analysis: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltaum.90day.gif There really isn't a forecast product for them. The Himalayan torques can be tied to the MJO (P4/5 is usually a positive torque event), but otherwise, you have to wait until you see them (well, at least I do, maybe some other people can forecast them). The good news is: they're a 8-14 day leading indicator of the synoptic flow, so you don't necessarily need to forecast them all that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 JB is excited about snow this weekend...ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 thats a pure lolz...remind not to look at that map during winter, cause that is truly weenism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 *** ALERT *** ALERT*** MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE COMING FOR ALL OF NORTH AMERICA... OCT 6-16 guess who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 Nice. Can you have him look at d(snow)/dt through October as well? I don't think we have a way of getting that info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 we should have some hefty positive anamolies after the next couple days...though the cool shot this weekend into next should erase all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 2, 2012 Author Share Posted October 2, 2012 Mark is going to crunch the numbers, but since 1967 outside of the two big snow cover Octobers and nina Octobers, not seeing an eye popping temp correlation for us locally. Maybe the Euro part of Eurasian is skewing the stats. BUT, given the current 22.4" normal, there have been 15 above normal seasons and 29 below current normal seasons since 1967 (granted there are a number of them around 20"). Have greater coverage of snow in October, your chances for an above normal season rises to 50%, have a below normal coverage of snow for October, it drops to 18%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 tony or adam, do you have the map that shows the favorable/non favorable mjo phases for the fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 3, 2012 Author Share Posted October 3, 2012 tony or adam, do you have the map that shows the favorable/non favorable mjo phases for the fall? Tombo, You can toggle at the cpc site +/- a three month period. There is also a link on the ersl lab site. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/SON/combined_image.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Tombo, You can toggle at the cpc site +/- a three month period. There is also a link on the ersl lab site. http://www.cpc.ncep....bined_image.png thanks, does that link update automatically as the months change for the different mjo phases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 tony or adam, do you have the map that shows the favorable/non favorable mjo phases for the fall? This is my favorite free link: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 4, 2012 Author Share Posted October 4, 2012 thanks, does that link update automatically as the months change for the different mjo phases? I moved back a step, now you can pick any three month period you want. http://www.cpc.ncep....es/Temperature/ Also the lower the percentages on the right side maps, the higher the confidence level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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