Rainshadow Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Ok, the rollercoaster ride is about to start: We got: 1) weak(?) el nino, the ideal phase if it stays weak, not eastbased and doesnt fade 2) Jack's Newfoundland pool would be a positive nao outlook for this winter 3) Dr. Hart's tropical recurvature, TBD 4) October temps, TBD 5) Eurasian October snowcover, the new what have you done for me lately winner. 6) The PDO staying in the cool phase? 7) QBO still negative at 30mb (the blocking didnt work last winter). 8) No Mt. Holly mets have bought a new snow thrower (yet) for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Ok, the rollercoaster ride is about to start: We got: 8) No Mt. Holly mets have bought a new snow thrower (yet) for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted September 1, 2012 Share Posted September 1, 2012 Ok, the rollercoaster ride is about to start: We got: 8) No Mt. Holly mets have bought a new snow thrower (yet) for this winter. No blaming me this winter if there is a lack of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 2, 2012 Author Share Posted September 2, 2012 If I get time later this week, I'll add enso neutral positive to this list. October Eurasian Snow Cover.......NAO average for the ensuing winter, weak or moderate el nino winters 1968.....above...............................negative 1976.....above...............................negative 1977.....above...............................negative 1986.....below.................................negative 1987.....below................................positive 1994.....below................................positive 2002.....above...............................negative 2004.....above................................positive 2006.....above...............................negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 4, 2012 Author Share Posted September 4, 2012 I see CPC has gone back and and reaccessed ninos and ninas; it looks like we gained two weak ninos since 1950 & the last two ninas have become "stronger". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 4, 2012 Share Posted September 4, 2012 I predict no repeat (7" for MBY) with Oct.29 2011 snow, * no way. *(maybe tobyhanna griil) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 I'm guessing weak la nina attm, just looking at historical data for PHL, kind of a real gamut of previous outcomes out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 If I get time later this week, I'll add enso neutral positive to this list. October Eurasian Snow Cover.......NAO average for the ensuing winter, weak or moderate el nino winters 1968.....above...............................negative 1976.....above...............................negative 1977.....above...............................negative 1986.....below.................................negative 1987.....below................................positive 1994.....below................................positive 2002.....above...............................negative 2004.....above................................positive 2006.....above...............................negative I have 2006-2007 has a solidly positive NAO winter with December 2006 averaging highly positive, January 2007 slightly positive, and February 2007 slightly negative, March solidly positive again. That is accoridng to CPC. The SLP NAO gives a similar result. 2004-2005 has contradicting values depending on the source. SLP gives almost dead neutral while CPC gives solidly positive. Always a pain, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 I have 2006-2007 has a solidly positive NAO winter with December 2006 averaging highly positive, January 2007 slightly positive, and February 2007 slightly negative, March solidly positive again. That is accoridng to CPC. The SLP NAO gives a similar result. 2004-2005 has contradicting values depending on the source. SLP gives almost dead neutral while CPC gives solidly positive. ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/nao_index.tim Always a pain, lol. Will, The nao measuring has always been a pain. Here in 2006-7 it averages negative: ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/nao_index.tim or ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/tele_index.nh (the table I used) Here it averages positive: http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table All CPC links, probably different base references accounting for some of it; maybe I should have just looked at the actual 500mb departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Will, The nao measuring has always been a pain. Here in 2006-7 it averages negative: ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/nao_index.tim or ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/tele_index.nh (the table I used) Here it averages positive: http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table All CPC links, probably different base references accounting for some of it; maybe I should have just looked at the actual 500mb departures. I've found its always better (when its available) to see the whole 500mb anomaly pattern. 2006-2007 is a strange winter in that the NAO was definitely very positive early on but then we had a potent block over Greenland/Davis straight for February. The winter actually averaged out with slightly above nromal heights over Greenland...but it didn't have the corresponding below normal heights in the mid-latitude belt between Europe and eastern North America. The negative height anomalies were sort of confined to the New Foundland area and the North Atlantic well north of our latitude and into Scandinavia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 I've found its always better (when its available) to see the whole 500mb anomaly pattern. 2006-2007 is a strange winter in that the NAO was definitely very positive early on but then we had a potent block over Greenland/Davis straight for February. The winter actually averaged out with slightly above nromal heights over Greenland...but it didn't have the corresponding below normal heights in the mid-latitude belt between Europe and eastern North America. The negative height anomalies were sort of confined to the New Foundland area and the North Atlantic well north of our latitude and into Scandinavia. The sensible weather here concurred. We had the monstrous sleet storms in Feb & Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 As Tombo I think posted in the other thread there are concerns with with weak nino(s), basically a warm Oct (>58.5F) and nino not a good mix, but there have been only 7. The weak nino(s) winters benefit the most by a cold Oct (<56F), 10 of`13 have had an ensuing winter average of <35F. MDT ninos its 3 of 3, STG ninos its 2 of 3. With the reassessment adding in some borderline weak ninos, MDT ninos now the go to phase for colder temps, 9 of 11 <35F, although the two failures have been the two recent MDT ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 As Tombo I think posted in the other thread there are concerns with with weak nino(s), basically a warm Oct (>58.5F) and nino not a good mix, but there have been only 7. The weak nino(s) winters benefit the most by a cold Oct (<56F), 10 of`13 have had an ensuing winter average of <35F. MDT ninos its 3 of 3, STG ninos its 2 of 3. With the reassessment adding in some borderline weak ninos, MDT ninos now the go to phase for colder temps, 9 of 11 <35F, although the two failures have been the two recent MDT ninos. Its just hard to envision a below normal month. I think the last below normal month for philly was august of last yr. Putting everything a side, i do like the chances solely enso related with a nino going into winter. Nina's suck around here they are to volatile. So just the fact that we have a nino tips the snow meter to normal to slightly abv inmy eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 Its just hard to envision a below normal month. I think the last below normal month for philly was august of last yr. Putting everything a side, i do like the chances solely enso related with a nino going into winter. Nina's suck around here they are to volatile. So just the fact that we have a nino tips the snow meter to normal to slightly abv inmy eyes. Last October was only 0.2F above. The way I stratify the months, it would have to be higher than that to be considered "warm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 I believe that philly temps are well above anyone in the area month after month (official temps) to the extent that for them 1981-2010 temps are irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 6, 2012 Author Share Posted September 6, 2012 I believe that philly temps are well above anyone in the area month after month (official temps) to the extent that for them 1981-2010 temps are irrelevant. October least affected. This is for the contiguous United States. Average Temp is 1981-2010 normal. October 1981 - 2010 Average = 54.77 degF October 1895 - 2011 Trend = 0.06 degF / Decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 October least affected. This is for the contiguous United States. Average Temp is 1981-2010 normal. At least we still have one normal month left! The only way above norm recent October was 2007 I believe. October 1981 - 2010 Average = 54.77 degF October 1895 - 2011 Trend = 0.06 degF / Decade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 6, 2012 Share Posted September 6, 2012 Tony, do you have a link to daily updated eurasia snow cover to track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 I believe the only noticeably above average for October was in 2007, otherwise it has been pretty stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 Tony, do you have a link to daily updated eurasia snow cover to track? Tombo, I don't know how quickly this is generated after the month is over. http://climate.rutge...sia&ui_month=10 (October 1976 stands out.) You kind of can tell where its heading by the daily anomaly maps at the same site. In reality I think its more Siberian than Eurasian, but that is as close to it as I can find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 I believe the only noticeably above average for October was in 2007, otherwise it has been pretty stable. Not a coincidence that was another log in the fire as to why it was not a great ensuing winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Not a coincidence that was another log in the fire as to why it was not a great ensuing winter. Yes I remember that one,went to Hawaii in October and it was about as warm here as it was there! Last October was near normal and the winter was warmer than 2007-08. Both of those winters my snowfall was about the same, a little more than a foot total....horrible!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 7, 2012 Share Posted September 7, 2012 Tombo, I don't know how quickly this is generated after the month is over. http://climate.rutge...sia&ui_month=10 (October 1976 stands out.) You kind of can tell where its heading by the daily anomaly maps at the same site. In reality I think its more Siberian than Eurasian, but that is as close to it as I can find. I thought their were maps that show snow coverage also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 7, 2012 Author Share Posted September 7, 2012 I thought their were maps that show snow coverage also? Yup, Same site: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2012&ui_day=250&ui_set=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 After reviewing the posts in this thread I'm now leaning towards a repeat of this picture I captured last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 What was the later year the PHL actually had a well below normal October? It seems that past few years with this thread, we have been hanging on by pins & needles with temps slightly to well above normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 8, 2012 Author Share Posted September 8, 2012 What was the later year the PHL actually had a well below normal October? It seems that past few years with this thread, we have been hanging on by pins & needles with temps slightly to well above normal? 2003 last "cold" October. Since then five have fallen within the "normal" third and three have fallen within the "warm" third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I am with Quakertown in predicting no repeat of the 9" that fell in my backyard last October but I DO predict a colder and snowier winter then last year! How is that for going out on a limb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 8, 2012 Share Posted September 8, 2012 I am with Quakertown in predicting no repeat of the 9" that fell in my backyard last October but I DO predict a colder and snowier winter then last year! How is that for going out on a limb? I truly home not. I am visiting my mother for 2 weeks in Key West at the end of October through the 1st week of November. I had to beg my wife to move to Highland Lakes, build a home that cost way more than planned just to test out the elevation reports. I atleast need to enjoy my first elevation snowfall. if it occurs in October or November. I would be bitter is this occurs again and I were in Key West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 10, 2012 Author Share Posted September 10, 2012 I truly home not. I am visiting my mother for 2 weeks in Key West at the end of October through the 1st week of November. I had to beg my wife to move to Highland Lakes, build a home that cost way more than planned just to test out the elevation reports. I atleast need to enjoy my first elevation snowfall. if it occurs in October or November. I would be bitter is this occurs again and I were in Key West You can always take solace that outside of '72 (this nino is not going to be that strong anyway), early fall snows in nino winters are a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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