nchighcountrywx Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 The relatively cold outbreak around the 22nd of this month will really feel nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 The 46 here last night was only one off a tie for the record low for the date and for down this way 46 is pretty darn chilly for Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Looks like Goofy still wants to bring up some big rains to Ga. next week. Hope that holds. I love cool, and low humidity, but rain will always be welcome in the Ga. desert! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Wow has anybody taken a look at the 18z GFS. That Low really seems to bomb out in the East next week. Big trough in the East and looks to be setting the stages for a split flow to set up across the country also. Reading the Winter forum from the New England threat HM was saying this is very El Nino looking for September which would be great news coming into this winter. Also great read up there about the upcoming winter from the New England thread. Also what a trough that would be for the East if this would be to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 So fall like today. After a high of 83, it was 71 with wind, dark, and misty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Nice! I had rain from about 10:30 'til around 2. Didn't seem like a whole lot, but a welcome surprise, for sure. T edit .... picked up .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Looks like next week the SE could get a lot of rainfall from these frontal systems. The HPC is calling for 2-4 inches of rain the next five days in many areas of the SE. Maybe some flooding concerns if this comes about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 14, 2012 Share Posted September 14, 2012 Raleigh mentioning tornadoes on Mon/Tue, and I agree with them to a point, especially looking at the Euro's verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Big rain totals are coming in for the next five days in the SE along with a chance of severe weather East of the mountains. Some totals are as high as five inches in some spots. May need to start a thread on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Big rain totals are coming in for the next five days in the SE along with a chance of severe weather East of the mountains. Some totals are as high as five inches in some spots. May need to start a thread on this. I really have not followed the weather/models much lately but I sure hope so. Plus, given it's september, that is a big bonus if it happens since we are entering the dry season. Especially since lakes/creeks where I'm at are still low..despite having a respectable amount of rain lately. The water table must really be low here....so every drop is certainly needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 GSP forecast discussion this a.m. said a widespread 2-4 rain for the area was likely,with higher amounts in the mountains.we still need it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 The keys to the upcoming forecast is where does the upper trough goes to the north, is there a phase with the south, upper streams, where does the surface low tracks, and which ways do the winds blow. The warm air advection at 850 mb is really strong, with tons of moisture rising to the north well ahead of the trough. Upper air divergence at the 200-300 mb level is also very good with a nice jet streak sliding south. The dynamics appear to be here for a big weather event for the southeast. The overall question remain where does the surface low tracks. For example, if the low pressure tracks over the mountains or just east of the mountains, this could be a major rain event for the mountains of NC, foothills, and piedmont of NC, GA, SC, and up the east coast. There could also be a severe threat with this system as wind shear and helicity is relatively high. CAPE appears to remain fairly low, but I believe the tornado threat is there in the piedmont and coastal sections of NC, SC, GA, and through VA. My current thinking is 1-2 inches across the piedmont of NC, 2-3 foothills of NC, 2-3 mountains, higher amounts in southern mountains of NC. SC, GA, VA, and eastern TN 1-2 inches with isolated higher amounts where thunderstorms train. Very amazing system no matter what happens for this time of year in the southeast. We will see what continues to happens over the next few hours as the models continue to lock in on solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 The keys to the upcoming forecast is where does the upper trough goes to the north, is there a phase with the south, upper streams, where does the surface low tracks, and which ways do the winds blow. The warm air advection at 850 mb is really strong, with tons of moisture rising to the north well ahead of the trough. Upper air divergence at the 200-300 mb level is also very good with a nice jet streak sliding south. The dynamics appear to be here for a big weather event for the southeast. The overall question remain where does the surface low tracks. For example, if the low pressure tracks over the mountains or just east of the mountains, this could be a major rain event for the mountains of NC, foothills, and piedmont of NC, GA, SC, and up the east coast. There could also be a severe threat with this system as wind shear and helicity is relatively high. CAPE appears to remain fairly low, but I believe the tornado threat is there in the piedmont and coastal sections of NC, SC, GA, and through VA. My current thinking is 1-2 inches across the piedmont of NC, 2-3 foothills of NC, 2-3 mountains, higher amounts in southern mountains of NC. SC, GA, VA, and eastern TN 1-2 inches with isolated higher amounts where thunderstorms train. Very amazing system no matter what happens for this time of year in the southeast. We will see what continues to happens over the next few hours as the models continue to lock in on solutions. Yes a very interesting pattern setting up for the month of September well the second half of September. I was just saying this kind of looks like an October pattern. As Lookout mentioned we usually enter into a dry period this month. Looking down the road also the GFS really wants to keep the trough over the East right into the beginning of October. At least we have some interesting weather shaping up with severe weather, heavy rain and maybe our first frost this month in parts of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 15, 2012 Share Posted September 15, 2012 Tuesday cold front could bring us some severe storms...I bumped the September Cold Front thread for obs/discussion on this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Picked up 0.63 inch of rain overnight. I had missed out on measurable rainfall for almost two weeks, so this was very welcome. The NAM 4K model did a really good job of predicting this overnight. I'm really liking the higher resolution on that model compared to the older 12K model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Damming event setting up over interior NC. Cool and rainy outside (60 at RDU). Wife had me shut some windows. I'll sneak and open them later. RAH update: ....... HIGHS WILL BE DROPPED BACK 5-10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE RAIN COOLED AREAS... MID TO UPPER 60S NW RANGING TO THE UPPER 70S SE. THIS DROP IS DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS... DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS... AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENTIAL IN-SITU DAMMING EVENT IN THE PIEDMONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 59 degrees...had some occasional downpours last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 The main event is coming tomorrow night but a night heavy rain shower is pounding MBY ATM. VP2 has shown 3"+ per hour rain rates in the past 20 minutes. .46" in the bucket so far and still puring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 The rain event has started early here...... FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 421 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012 NCC111-162100- /O.NEW.KGSP.FA.Y.0160.120916T2021Z-120916T2100Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ MCDOWELL NC- 421 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED AN * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN... CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 500 PM EDT * AT 415 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. SINCE 3 PM...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT BETWEEN 1.75 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN NORTH OF MARION...ESPECIALLY OVER BUCK CREEK AND TOMS CREEK. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE MARION AREA THROUGH 5 PM...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN. * RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. STREET FLOODING ON INTERSTATE 70 JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 221 IS LIKELY THROUGH 5 PM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOW IMPACT FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES SET UP TO BLOCK WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE BARRICADES ARE SET UP FOR YOUR PROTECTION. && LAT...LON 3575 8191 3566 8191 3567 8210 3576 8209 $$ NED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 Highly unexpected 1.17" IMBY from a small shower. Not one rumble of thunder but 3"+ per hour rates at times. .77" of that fell in 20 minutes which is pretty decent rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted September 16, 2012 Share Posted September 16, 2012 The main event is coming tomorrow night but a night heavy rain shower is pounding MBY ATM. VP2 has shown 3"+ per hour rain rates in the past 20 minutes. .46" in the bucket so far and still puring. The models for days now have showed that some extremely strong omega will accompany this event, right ahead of the front, so we have all types of good lift coming. This is only the beginning. The actual duration + the rates is what's going to make some flood issues. The last time I seen something similar to this, remotely I guess, is the Christmas storm of 2010 I think, where just ahead of the front there was extreme rainfall rates. No wonder the models are still showing totals of 4" here and there. If its one thing that causes instant flooding, its the rates. I had two major episodes of that here this Summer, where the rates is what done the damage. The rain event has started early here...... FLOOD ADVISORY More to come. I think each of the offices of RAH, GSP FFC MRX HSX BHM RNK will have some type of flood watch or warnings issued before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Nice gentle rainfall again this evening. I love the cool temps with the sound of the rain falling. Both are accentuated by the freedom of having the windows open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 The Triad and Triangle did not get beyond the low and mid 60s today for daytime highs. Talk about seasonal regime change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 17, 2012 Author Share Posted September 17, 2012 0.49" since 7am yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Reports of near 8 inches in localized heavy rains in Lancaster SC area thos morning @wxbrad: Doppler radar estimates as much as 8" of rain fell in eastern Lancaster Co this morning. http://t.co/aGkIwtXA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 That is a great deal of rain. Hoping we cash in on this set up come winter time! Reports of near 8 inches in localized heavy rains in Lancaster SC area thos morning @wxbrad: Doppler radar estimates as much as 8" of rain fell in eastern Lancaster Co this morning. http://t.co/aGkIwtXA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 .19" yesterday - a few sprinkles earlier this morning. Chuckling at someone who just issued an *alert*, and says no rain for the Norfolk/Va Beach area. Oh, and Raleigh will get "some rain, but not that much".... SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Picked up .52 overnight.waiting on the good stuff the next two days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 17, 2012 Share Posted September 17, 2012 Got .35 in two showers yesterday afternoon, and again last night. That's nearly a half inch for two days, and the bulk of the rain is still way off. I'll take it, in the dry season. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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