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September 2012 Obs/Discussion Thread


Isopycnic

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Finally slowing down. Right at 2" of rain in 20 minutes.

Wow! :weight_lift:

1.0" in 9 minutes. 1.56" storm total.

Sweet! :weight_lift::drunk:

Storms were all around today, but mby managed to stay dry. CAE picked up .11 but I'm not complaining :lol: There are not many days in September where I can say the high temp was 81 at noon, and rest of the day I listened to long rumbling thunder while enjoying the rain cooled breeze ^_^

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We picked up a radar estimate of at least two inches here; I'm guessing we got more than that. The backyard started flooding (we have a drainage culvert behind the fence, and it doesn't do much)... so naturally, I went kayaking.

Also, the house four down from me was struck by lightning, and my department got paged out for a report of a fire. I just threw my gear on and walked over as everyone was showing up. No fire, but it did blow all the breakers, blow out a bit of siding, and weld the flashing along the roof together.

post-3362-0-58176000-1346718133_thumb.jp

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A disappointing 0.27" two day total for the event, here in Wilson, NC. However, in a way I consider myself lucky to get what we got. The storm bands seemed to be orientated in the north-south axis, and generally seemed to move SSW to NNE, which means that if you were underone, you could get a good bit, but if you weren't under one, tough luck.

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Well, I went down towards Pelion (further South in Lexington) and figured I'd see some good weather shows today.. since they always seem to get it..

I look at the radar down there, and since I wasn't home it decided to hit my home instead. Mother nature seems to hate me.

It looks like this area only picked up 1/2in' at the very most.

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Wow at the cutoff the Euro is advertising at about hour 120.

Yep...big model war going on for this weekend/early next week between the GFS and Euro. The GFS brings in a really sharp trough and moves it through Saturday/Sunday sweeping out the tropical air while the EURO goes the whole nine yards and cuts it off. If the king verified a lot of the forecasts here in the East and Southeast for Sunday/Monday would be thrown in the garbage.

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I can't remember the last time I got 3 storms in one day but I did yesterday, plus some light-moderate for a little while this morning. All and all i picked up 1.73 inches. Not bad considering the storms were moving quite fast. But As others have noted the rates were impressive with my highest rate being 5 inches per hour with the last line and 4 inches per hour it the first 2 individual storms.

Wasn't expecting that much yesterday (figured today and tonight would be the best chance per previous model runs) but I'll certainly take it. Hopefully I can add more today/tonight..although the nam/gfs has backed up a good bit (then again they weren't showing so much yesterday) gfs still shows a bullseye around this area into the upstate though like previous runs. But they badly underestimated the rainfall over Al, as well as yesterday here. So I'm not putting too much stock in it...even though it is surprising to see the gfs being so consistent on this enhanced rainfall area along the 85 corridor for so long.

It's interesting that models show pws starting around 2 inches (2.07 per 12z FFC sounding) and increasing it to 2.20 to 2.3 inches by later today and tonight, especially along the 85 corridor from ga into sc. So once again rainfall rates will be very impressive with even just showers if the models are accurate. And it certainly won't take much to get activity going.

Speaking of a lot of rain, man central alabama sure has gotten hammered since yesterday...with even a 10 inch marker in one spot with widespread 5 to 8 inches..and it's still raining in the same spots. And no doubt it's likely they did get that much, even maybe under estimated given the very high precipitable water values over that area (models showing widespread 2.2 to 2.3 inches precipitable water values over al, ga, sc, etc. There has to be some flooding for sure at this point in those areas because this has been going on for over 12 hours almost non stop.

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12z GFS now closes off at 500 mb over West Virginia at 120 hours...

Big forecast changes for late weekend and next week may be in store especially along the East Coast.

Now we talking!!!

Picked up .92 since yesterday and anticipating more tonight. Loving my new weather station, just in time!!

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Picked up .3 today. The rain sits near by, but doesn't come my way very often. Very drought like :) Now Isaac is moving off shore, it'd be nice if it sat out in the gulf and spun up good, then came back in, but this time into Ga. like it should have the first time...where it is actually wanted, lol. T

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Now Isaac is moving off shore, it'd be nice if it sat out in the gulf and spun up good, then came back in, but this time into Ga. like it should have the first time...where it is actually wanted, lol. T

Based on the timing of a vigorous cold front coming through the deep south once it stews in the gulf for couple days, I think you'll get your wish, although I'm not sure it will be called Isaac. Best bet is this thing hitting the FL panhandle and moving NE at a decent clip from there. Based on the flow, I wouldn't expect super heavy (8-10") amounts, but a general 2-4" regionwide rainfall with locally higher amounts would be nice.

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Yep...big model war going on for this weekend/early next week between the GFS and Euro. The GFS brings in a really sharp trough and moves it through Saturday/Sunday sweeping out the tropical air while the EURO goes the whole nine yards and cuts it off. If the king verified a lot of the forecasts here in the East and Southeast for Sunday/Monday would be thrown in the garbage.

Ya looks like the models have abandoned that solution, but looks like a very sharp trough digging in for the weekend that will bring us a big cool down for most in the SE. Cannot wait!

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Ya looks like the models have abandoned that solution, but looks like a very sharp trough digging in for the weekend that will bring us a big cool down for most in the SE. Cannot wait!

It looks like even at 84 the NAM is showing this sweet trough coming into the picture also with the GFS Euro, and the Canadian @ 00z. Definitely hoping for an early Fall.. even if it's by just a couple/few weeks!

Edit: The Navy model shows it also! We're doomed! lol

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It looks like even at 84 the NAM is showing this sweet trough coming into the picture also with the GFS Euro, and the Canadian @ 00z. Definitely hoping for an early Fall.. even if it's by just a couple/few weeks!

Edit: The Navy model shows it also! We're doomed! lol

Lol ya. The pattern after the trough looks zonal but with these early shots seem transient at first then possibly more frequent. Although Im not buying anything the models have past about hour 120 right now. They have been all over the place. Looking forward to some fall air and leaves starting to change.

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Not too shocking that the heavy rainfall bullseye that the gfs advertised for so long did not really materialize but I did pick up another 0.35. I missed a lot heavier rain close by but this put me over 2 inches for this system. Certainly can't really complain about that.

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